原文发表于美国时间2024-8-26
发生了什么事情？
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周五在演讲中暗示美联储可能在9月开始降息，这一表态导致美国债券收益率出现了下降。
这意味着什么？
美联储主席鲍威尔表示就业市场进一步降温是不理想的情况，他表现出对实现美联储2%通胀目标的信心。在他发表演讲后，芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显示市场确信美联储在9月会降息25个基点，降息50个基点的可能性为40%。
美联储在未来的降息将取决于未来的各项数据、经济前景展望和对风险的平衡。即将公布的美国非农就业数据和失业数据将是决定美联储下一步行动的关键因素。
为何值得关注？
对于市场而言：降息的连锁反应
印度的政府债券收益率小幅下跌，跟随美国债券收益率的走势。基准的印度10年债券收益率收于6.8509%，低于之前的6.8591%。信赖共同基金的固定收益主管强调，预计美国今年将总共降息100个基点，到2025年将再降息125-150基点，这可能为全球债券市场带来有利的环境。
更大的图景：全球通胀动态
虽然印度央行因食品价格上涨导致总体通胀无法达到该央行4%的目标而保持利率不变，但由于季风季的良好天气状况，预计印度的通胀将有所缓和。这可能导致印度央行在1月至3月的季度进行降息。美联储主席鲍威尔的态度转变和美联储的降息可能会影响到全球各国的货币政策，改变其他国家的经济战略。
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懂行的，选盈透！
这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Finimize。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。
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