原文发表于美国时间2024-7-26
美国6月个人消费支出价格指数(PCE物价指数)继续下滑，符合经济学家们的预期，继续增强市场对美联储9月降息的预期。
PCE物价指数体现的是大多数美国消费者购买的商品和服务，通常被视为美联储最青睐的通胀指标，PCE物价指数在6月按年同比上涨了2.5%，低于5月2.6%的涨幅。然而，不包括能源和食品在内的PCE物价指数与5月持平。
同时，个人收入和支出的增长速度低于市场预期，显示出需求疲软的迹象。
6月PCE物价指数通胀、个人收入报告的亮点
PCE物价指数从5月的按年同比上涨2.6%降至6月的按年同比上涨2.5%。根据Tradingeconomics的数据，PCE物价指数年化率与市场预期的2.5%一致。
按月环比计算，PCE物价指数上涨0.1%，高于之前不变的读数，符合市场预期。
不包括食品和能源在内，核心6月PCE物价指数按年同比持平于2.6%，低于市场降至2.5%的预期。
按月环比计算，核心PCE物价指数上涨0.2%，高于5月数据的0.1%，超过市场预期。
个人收入与5月相比增长了0.2%，低于之前0.4%的按月环比增长，也低于市场预期的增长0.4%。
个人支出按月环比增长0.3%，也低于5月的0.4%涨幅，未达到市场预期的0.3%。
市场反应
根据芝商所的FedWatch工具，在PCE物价指数报告公布之前，交易员们预期美联储在9月降息的可能性为100%。
从现在到12月，交易员们已将美联储会降息64个基点计入市场定价中，这意味着美联储在9月会议后至少还会降息一次。
通胀和个人收入数据导致美国国债收益率在周五上午小幅下跌，对利率敏感的2年期美国国债收益率下跌2基点，降至4.41%。
股指期货在盘前交易时段上涨，标普500指数期货合约上涨0.8%，纳斯达克100指数期货合约上涨1.1%。
周四，SPDR标普500指数ETF下跌了0.5%。
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懂行的，选盈透！
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