原文发表于美国时间2024-10-31
周四，随着美联储青睐的通胀指标增长超预期，交易员们面临不那么愉快的万圣节交易情况，这引发了人们对今年最后两次美联储货币政策会议能否连续降息的担忧。
个人消费支出物价指数（PCE价格指数）按年同比上涨2.1%，与分析师们的预期一致。然而，核心PCE价格指数——剔除波动性的食品和能源价格后的指数，可以更好反映潜在的价格压力——则上涨了2.7%，略高于市场预期的2.6%。
核心PCE价格指数强于市场预期的通胀数据可能会让美联储在权衡下一步政策举措时保持警惕。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，尽管人们普遍认为美联储在下周举行的议息会议上降息25个基点已成定局，但市场对美联储12月是否再次降息的预期则遇遭到一些人的怀疑。
9月个人收入和支出数据报告的主要亮点：
9月个人消费支出物价指数（PCE价格指数）按月环比上涨0.2%，与市场预期的0.2%吻合，高于上月的0.1%。
核心PCE价格指数按月环比上涨0.3%，高于上月的0.1%，与市场预期一致。
从年化率看，总体PCE价格指数上涨了2.1%，低于8月上调后的2.3%数据。
核心PCE价格指数按年同比持平在2.7%，与8月数据相同。
9月个人收入数据为增加716亿美元，增幅为0.3%，与市场预期的0.3%吻合，高于上个月0.2%的增幅。
个人储蓄率从4.8%降至4.6%，9月个人储蓄从1.05万亿美元降至1万亿美元。
个人支出则增加了1058亿美元，增幅为0.5%，超过市场预期的0.4%，高于上月数据的0.2%。
市场走势
市场对最新的PCE价格指数反应平淡。
美国国债收益率保持稳定，对利率变化敏感的2年期美国国债收益率保持在4.17%不变。
截至纽约时间上午8:50，标普500指数期货下跌0.6%，纳斯达克100指数期货合约也下跌0.6%。不过，在通胀数据公布后，两者均保持基本稳定
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懂行的，选盈透！
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