What’s Behind All the Stock Market Drama?
JOE RENNISON, DANIELLE KAYE![]()
有时金融市场讲述的是一个简单明了的故事，但通常情况会相对复杂。AVA PELLOR FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESThe wild swings in markets recently are a case study in how seemingly distinct pillars around the globe are connected through the financial system — and the domino effect that can follow if one of them falls.最近市场的剧烈波动可谓一个活生生的例子，说明了全球各地看起来截然不同的支柱是如何通过金融体系联系在一起的，以及如果其中一个支柱倒下，可能随之而来的多米诺骨牌效应。Some of the turmoil in stocks reflected rising fear that the American labor market may be cracking, and that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have waited too long to cut interest rates.股市的动荡在一定程度上反映出人们越来越担心美国劳动力市场可能正在遭受重创，以及美联储在降息方面观望的时间可能过长。But it’s more complicated than that. This time around, there are also more technical reasons for the sell-off, analysts and investors say.但实际情况比这更复杂。分析师和投资者表示，这一次的抛售还有更多的技术性原因。Factors like a slow buildup of risky bets, the sudden undoing of a popular way to fund such trades and diverging decisions by global policymakers are each playing a role. Some of these forces can be traced back years, while others emerged only recently.高风险押注的缓慢积累、为此类交易融资的一种常用方式的突然崩塌，以及全球政策制定者的决策分歧等因素都起到了作用。其中一些因素可以追溯到几年前，还有一些则是最近才出现的。Here are some of the key reasons for the swings.A long stretch of low interest rates led investors to take more risks.The buildup of risks in the financial system can partly be traced back to 2008, when the housing crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates aggressively and keep them low for years. That encouraged investors to seek returns from riskier bets, since borrowing was cheap and cash parked in safe assets like money market funds earned next to nothing.金融系统中的风险积累可以部分追溯到2008年，当时的房地产危机促使美联储大幅降息，并多年将利率维持在较低水平。这等于是鼓励投资者从风险更高的押注中寻求回报，因为借贷成本很低，而且将现金存放在货币市场基金等安全资产中几乎没有收益。Rates were also cut back to near zero in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic, reviving these sorts of trades.在新冠疫情的早期阶段，利率也降至接近零的水平，使得这类交易重新活跃起来。As the Fed began to raise rates rapidly in 2022, this dynamic shifted, putting the riskier bets under pressure as the returns on relatively safe investments became more attractive.随着美联储在2022年开始快速加息，这种情况发生了变化，相对安全的投资回报变得更具吸引力，风险较大的押注面临压力。But not all countries raised interest rates at the same time. In Japan, where growth and inflation had long languished, the central bank kept its rates near zero, making it an outlier.但并非所有国家都在同一时间提高利率。在日本，经济增长和通货膨胀长期低迷，日央行将利率维持在接近零的水平，使其成为一个例外。This made the yen very cheap relative to other currencies, and investors spotted an opportunity: Borrow money cheaply in Japan and put it toward higher-yielding investments elsewhere around the world.这使得日元相对于其他货币非常便宜，投资者从中看到了一个机会：在日本以低廉的成本借款，然后将其投入到世界其他地方的高收益投资中。Known as a carry trade, this investment strategy “was one of the darling trades among hedge funds and other investors,” said Christian Salomone, the chief investment officer of Ballast Rock Private Wealth. Its undoing has also become a major factor in the recent market turmoil.这种被称为套息交易的投资策略“曾是对冲基金和其他投资者中的宠儿，”道砟私人财富公司的首席投资官克里斯蒂安·萨洛蒙说。该策略的崩溃也成为近期市场动荡的一个主要因素。![]()
许多投资者和分析师指出，日本市场的动荡是近期全球抛售的催化剂。WILLY KURNIAWAN/REUTERSA stronger yen has prompted a ‘punishing unwind’ of popular trades.When the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week, for only the second time in nearly 20 years, the decision coincided with forecasts that the Fed was preparing to cut rates soon. This narrowed the gap between market rates in Japan and the United States, and the yen spiked.日本央行上周加息，这是近20年来的第二次加息，这一决定与美联储准备很快降息的预测不谋而合。这缩小了日美利差，日元汇率飙升。A truly enormous amount of money has been borrowed in yen by investors outside Japan, with economists at the European bank ING estimating that these cross-border loans have increased by more than $700 billion since 2021. The sharp rise in the yen led to a “punishing unwind of carry trades,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note on Tuesday.日本以外的投资者以日元借入大量资金，欧洲银行荷兰国际集团的经济学家估计，自2021年以来，这些跨境贷款增加了7000多亿美元。高盛的分析师在周二的一份研究报告中写道，日元急剧升值导致了“套息交易的惨重失败”。The suddenly stronger yen also threatened to become a drag on corporate profits for Japanese firms, especially the big companies that rely on exports. That spooked investors in Japan’s stock market, stoking fears that a stronger yen would spell the end of a more-than-yearlong rally. The three-day loss of more than 20 percent for Japanese stocks, through Monday, was the largest since 1950, according to Goldman.日元突然走强也有可能拖累日本企业的利润，尤其是那些依赖出口的大公司。这在日本股市的投资者当中引发了恐慌，他们担心日元走强可能会终结长达一年多的反弹。高盛的数据显示，截至周一，日本股市三天跌幅超过20%，为1950年以来的最大跌幅。Many investors and analysts point to the turmoil in Japan as the catalyst for the recent global sell-off, compounded later by investors’ anxiety about the direction of the U.S. economy and other worries.许多投资者和分析师认为，日本的动荡是最近全球股市抛售的催化剂，之后又受到投资者对美国经济走向及其他担忧的影响。Investors are questioning their assumptions on how high some stocks could rise.As yen-based carry trades began to unravel, pulling stock prices lower, some investors began to reassess whether the barnstorming rally in shares of big tech companies had gone too far.随着以日元为基础的套息交易开始瓦解，导致股价下跌，一些投资者开始重新评估大型科技公司股价的猛烈反弹是否已经过头。Tech stocks propelled markets higher in the first half of this year, with almost two-thirds of the S&P 500’s gain linked to a handful of stocks that became known as the “Magnificent Seven”: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.今年上半年，科技股推动市场走高，标准普尔500指数近三分之二的涨幅与被称为“七巨头”的少数几只股票有关，它们是字母表公司、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、微软、英伟达和特斯拉。But that dominance has left the market vulnerable to a shift in sentiment about these giants’ ability to meet such high expectations. Investors are getting worried about when they will see a return on the huge amounts that these firms have committed to spend on artificial intelligence.但这种主导地位使得市场很容易受到情绪的影响，而人们对这些巨头能否满足如此高的预期产生了怀疑。投资者越来越担心，这些公司承诺在人工智能领域投入的巨额资金究竟何时才能带来回报。From its peak on July 16 through Monday’s close of trading, the S&P 500 fell 8.5 percent, and more than half of that loss could be attributed to the Magnificent Seven, according to data from Howard Silverblatt at S&P Dow Jones Indices.自7月16日的峰值以来，标准普尔500指数截至周一收盘下跌了8.5%，根据标普道琼斯指数的霍华德·西尔弗布拉特提供的数据，其中超过一半的跌幅可以归因于“七巨头”。Some influential investors have also scaled back. Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate run by Warren E. Buffett, halved its multibillion-dollar stake in Apple last quarter, according to a weekend filing.一些有影响力的投资者也开始缩减投资规模。沃伦·巴菲特执掌的企业集团伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司上周末提交的一份文件显示，在上个季度，它已经将持有的数十亿美元苹果股份减半。Other arcane strategies, and thin trading volumes, make for volatile trading.其他一些晦涩难懂的策略，以及稀少的交易量，导致了交易的波动。Some investors trying to make sense of the sharp moves in markets have also pointed to the role played by specialist derivatives traders who bet not on the direction of price movements but on the magnitude of volatility in those changes. Bets on low volatility, a winning strategy for much of the year as stocks marched steadily higher, came under pressure as the sell-off erupted. That may have forced further selling as investors tried to cover their losses.一些投资者试图对市场的剧烈波动做出解释，他们也指出了专业衍生品交易商起到的作用，他们押注的不是价格变动的方向，而是这些变化的波动程度。在今年大部分时间里，随着股市稳步走高，押注低波动率是一个成功的策略，但随着抛售的爆发，该策略受到了压力。这可能迫使投资者进一步抛售股票，试图弥补损失。A rise in volatility can also be a function of the calendar. Summer vacations result in lower trading volumes on Wall Street, so nudges up or down can have an outsize effect on market prices.波动性的上升也可能与日历有关。夏季假期导致华尔街的交易量下降，因此股市的小幅涨跌可能对市场价格产生巨大影响。The “violent moves of recent days,” Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note this week, were “massively exaggerated by illiquid August conditions.”德意志银行的策略师吉姆·里德在本周的一份报告中写道，“最近几天的剧烈波动”被“8月份流动性不足的状况严重夸大了”。
Joe Rennison撰写有关金融市场的文章，内容包括记录股市的变幻莫测、解释华尔街内部人士常常难以理解的交易决策等。
Danielle Kaye是一名商业记者，也是2024年David Carr奖学金项目成员，这是一个为处在职业生涯早期的记者而设立的项目。
翻译：杜然
