Will Taylor Swift’s Endorsement Actually Affect the Election?
ETHAN SINGER, RONDA KAYSEN泰勒·斯威夫特公开宣布自己会把票投给谁，但这是否会影响选情？Andre Dias Nobre/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesTo some Americans, the biggest news to come out of the presidential debate Tuesday night was not Kamala Harris’s well-received performance. It was Taylor Swift’s endorsement of her minutes after the debate ended.对一些美国人来说，周二晚上总统辩论的最大新闻并非贺锦丽广受好评的表现。而是泰勒·斯威夫特在辩论结束几分钟后公开表态对她的支持。As celebrity endorsements go, there may not be a bigger one. But could it actually influence the race?恐怕不会有比这更重大的名人背书了。但这真的能影响到选举结果吗？There’s no doubt that Ms. Swift has sway with her legions of fans. There were a total of 405,999 visits to Vote.gov through the link on Ms. Swift’s Instagram story in the 24 hours it was live, far more than the site’s daily average of 30,000 in early September, according to a General Services Administration spokesperson.毫无疑问，斯威夫特在她的众多粉丝当中拥有巨大的影响力。根据总务管理局发言人的说法，斯威夫特在Instagram故事中提供的链接在24小时内为Vote.gov网站引来了40.5999万次访问，远超该网站在9月初日均3万的数量。But that number alone isn’t particularly useful. It doesn’t tell us whether the visitors were new voters, whether those visits translated into actual registrations or what any new voters will do on Nov. 5.但仅仅是这个数字并没有太大意义。它并不能告诉我们这些访问者是否是新选民，这些访问是否转化为实际的登记，或者任何新选民在11月5日会把票投给谁。The reality is that it’s impossible to know exactly how much of a difference — if any — Ms. Swift will make. But here are some ways to think about the question, after looking at research and speaking with college-age Swift fans in Pennsylvania after the debate.现实情况是，我们无法确切知道斯威夫特会带来多大的变化——如果有的话。但在辩论结束后，在查阅了相关研究并与宾夕法尼亚州处在大学年龄的斯威夫特粉丝交谈后，我们找到了一些思考这个问题的角度。What the research says相关研究是怎么说的There are lots of studies on celebrity endorsements, but the evidence that they matter is mixed. And even if they do matter (they are still sought after and welcomed), the actual effects are very hard to measure.关于名人背书的研究有很多，但并没有格外有力的证据能证明名人背书的重要性。即使这种背书确实有用（竞选中仍然迫切需要和欢迎这样的支持），实际效果也很难衡量。But researchers have tried.但研究人员对此做过尝试。After Oprah Winfrey endorsed Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary, researchers analyzed Oprah Magazine subscription data, book sales and election results to see if Mr. Obama performed better than expected in places where people subscribed to the magazine or where books recommended by Oprah’s Book Club sold particularly well (after controlling for various demographics like race, age, education and more). They found that he did, and concluded that Ms. Winfrey’s endorsement resulted in an additional one million votes for Mr. Obama in the primary, out of more than 30 million votes cast.奥普拉·温弗瑞在2008年民主党初选中公开表态支持奥巴马之后，研究人员分析了《奥普拉杂志》的订阅数据、图书销售和选举结果，以确定奥巴马在订阅该杂志的地方，或者在奥普拉读书俱乐部推荐的书籍卖得特别好的地方（在对种族、年龄、教育等各种人口统计变量进行控制后)，是否表现得比预期好。他们发现的确如此，并得出结论，温弗瑞的支持让奥巴马在初选中多获得了100万张选票，投票总数为3000多万张。But this example may only take us so far. Researchers at Miami University in Ohio and California State Long Beach found that celebrity endorsements are more likely to matter in primary elections, when voters must choose between two or more relatively similar candidates. In these situations — when voters don’t really have a strong view one way or another — the voice of a trusted celebrity can play an important role.然而，此例可能适用范围有限。俄亥俄州迈阿密大学和加州州立大学长滩分校的研究人员发现，名人背书在初选中的影响可能更大，即选民必须在两个或多个相对类似的候选人之间做出选择。在这种情况下——当选民没有强烈的倾向时——一个值得信赖的名人的声音可以发挥重要作用。In general elections, partisanship is what drives voters’ choices; political attitudes often form early in life and are unlikely to be changed by a celebrity endorsement. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received endorsements from Beyoncé, Jay-Z, LeBron James, Kendall Jenner, George Clooney and dozens of others. She still lost.在大选中，党派之争是推动选民选择的因素；政治态度通常在很小就形成了，不太可能因为名人背书而改变。在2016年，希拉里·克林顿得到了碧昂丝、Jay-Z、勒布朗·詹姆斯、肯达尔·詹纳、乔治·克鲁尼等许多人的公开支持。她最后还是输了。Could Swift’s endorsement be a special case?斯威夫特的背书会不会是一个特例？Vice President Harris is not a typical general election candidate, having entered the race less than two months ago. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 28 percent of likely voters said they still needed to learn more about her. Only 9 percent of likely voters felt the same way about Mr. Trump. If celebrity endorsements do have a larger effect when voters don’t have a strong view of the candidate, Ms. Harris could benefit from being relatively unknown.作为一名总统大选候选人，副总统贺锦丽的情况并非典型，她不到两个月前才参加竞选。在《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院最近的一项民调中，28%的潜在选民表示，他们仍需要更多地了解她。只有9%的潜在选民对特朗普有同样的看法。当选民对候选人没有强烈偏向的情况下，名人的支持确实会产生更大的影响，那么贺锦丽可能会因为相对不为人知而受益。There’s also the question of who might be most receptive to Ms. Swift’s message.还有一个问题是，谁可能对斯威夫特的信息最具接受度。Although her supporters are more likely to be Democrats (according to a recent YouGov poll) she is popular enough that she has support across the political spectrum. About a third of voters who didn’t support either Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris said they liked her. It’s possible some of those voters — a sliver, to be sure — may be swayed by the endorsement.尽管斯威夫特的支持者更有可能是民主党人（根据YouGov最近所做的民调），但她的受欢迎程度足以让她得到各政治派别的支持。在不支持特朗普或贺锦丽的选民中，大约有三分之一的人表示喜欢她。这些选民中的一些人——可以肯定的是一小部分——可能会受到其背书的影响。The fact that partisanship forms in one’s youth could be another argument for a Swift effect. In the YouGov poll, the youngest respondents were the most likely to say they were big Swift fans.党派倾向在青少年时期形成的事实，可能是另一个支持斯威夫特效应的论点。在YouGov所做的民调中，最年轻的受访者最有可能说自己是斯威夫特的忠实粉丝。“Young voters don’t trust a lot of institutions, they don’t trust a lot of traditional leaders, they do trust the people that they idolize,” said E. Michele Ramsey, an associate professor of communication arts and sciences at Penn State Berks who teaches a class on Ms. Swift. “Our idols are people that we want to emulate.”“年轻选民对许多机构不信任，对许多传统领导者不信任，但他们信任那些他们崇拜的人，”宾州州立大学伯克分校传播艺术与科学副教授E·米歇尔·拉姆齐表示，她开有一门关于斯威夫特的课程。“我们的偶像是我们想要效仿的人。”Several students we spoke to reflected this idea.我们采访的几位学生都表达了这个观点。Buse Onat, 20, a junior at the University of Scranton and an undecided voter, grew up listening to Ms. Swift’s music. She sees her as “a really important figure” in her life. To Ms. Onat, who doesn’t follow politics closely, “having someone else endorse this, kind of shows you: I don’t fully understand this, but this person does.”20岁的布斯·奥纳特是斯克兰顿大学的大三学生，也是一位尚未决定把票投给谁的选民，她听着斯威夫特的歌长大。她将其视为自己生活中“一个非常重要的人物”。对于不太关注政治的奥纳特来说，“他人的背书某种程度上向你表明：我虽然不完全理解这件事，但这个人理解。”Grace Miller, 22, a senior at Kutztown University, grew up in a Republican household. But Ms. Swift’s endorsement has made her more confident in her own favorable opinion of Ms. Harris. If Ms. Swift is “not scared to support someone, it kind of makes it seem like maybe she is the better option,” she said.22岁的格蕾丝·米勒是库茨敦大学的大四生，在一个共和党家庭长大。但斯威夫特的背书让她对贺锦丽的好感变得更有信心了。她说：“如果斯威夫特‘不害怕支持某个人，那就会让人觉得她可能是更好的选择’。”In the YouGov poll, 8 percent of respondents said her endorsement would make them more likely to support Ms. Swift’s favored candidate. Most said it wouldn’t.在YouGov的民调中，8%的受访者表示她的背书会让他们更有可能支持斯威夫特青睐的候选人。大多数人则表示不会。Lillian Morales, a freshman at Penn State Berks, plans to vote for Ms. Harris and said Ms. Swift’s endorsement was never going to influence her ultimate decision. “It’s really not my business to know who someone is voting for,” she said. “And if she wants to express who she’s voting for, then that’s on her.”宾夕法尼亚州立大学伯克斯分校的大一新生莉莉安·莫拉莱斯计划投票给贺锦丽，她说斯威夫特的背书永远不会影响她的最终决定。“我真的不关心别人把票投给谁，”她说。“如果她想表达自己投票给谁，那是她的事。”If anything, the Swift fan base was already politically organized before the endorsement. Swifties for Kamala formed the day President Biden dropped out of the race. A single Instagram post may not do much to mobilize Swift voters any more than they already are.如果说有什么不同的话，斯威夫特的粉丝群在她背书之前就已经在政治上组织起来了。“霉粉挺卡玛拉”(Swifties for Kamala)在拜登总统退选那一天成立。一个Instagram帖子不见得给斯威夫特粉丝中的选民带来更多的动员。Swifties for Kamala “fully expected this statement to come,” said Erin L. Rossiter, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame. “Now that they have this endorsement, it legitimizes what they’re doing so they can be more powerful in their organizing” — even if the groundwork was already laid.支持贺锦丽的霉粉“对这份声明的到来毫不意外”，圣母大学政治学助理教授艾琳·罗西特说。“现在他们得到了这份背书，这就使他们所做的事情更加理直气壮了，这样他们在组织工作中变得更有气势”——即使基础已经打好了。What about enthusiasm?那么投票热情方面呢？Does this mean that any impact of the Swift endorsement will be less about changing minds, and more about increasing turnout?这是否意味着斯威夫特的背书更多的不是改变人民的想法，而是增加投票率？Young voters are typically much less likely to vote than older voters. In a close election, if Ms. Swift’s endorsement persuaded even a small portion of Democratic-aligned potential voters to register and cast a ballot, it could make a difference.与老年选民相比，年轻选民投票的可能性通常要小得多。在一场势均力敌的选举中，如果斯威夫特的背书能说服哪怕是一小部分支持民主党的潜在选民登记并投票，就可能会产生不同的结果。Then again, if it did, we wouldn’t necessarily know it: If Ms. Harris sees a bump in polling data or voter registrations, it will be hard to tell whether it comes from Ms. Swift’s endorsement, a strong debate performance or something else altogether.话又说回来，即便如此，我们也不一定知道：如果贺锦丽的民调数据或选民登记数据有所上升，究竟是来自斯威夫特的背书，优秀的辩论表现，还是别的什么原因。The endorsement may also have other, less visible downstream effects. It may help with fund-raising or lead to more favorable media coverage.背书也可能带来其他并不那么明显的影响。它可能有助于筹款，或带来更有利的媒体报道。Campaigns need excitement, but it’s not always easy to gauge. If it has felt to you that a lot of this year’s election cycle has risen and fallen on vibes, you’re not alone. On Tuesday night, the Harris/Walz campaign rushed to offer Swift-inspired friendship bracelets on its website. They sold out in less than 24 hours.竞选活动需要兴奋的情绪，但这并不总是那么容易衡量。如果你已经感觉到今年的选举周期在氛围上起起落落，很多人跟你想的一样。周二晚上，贺锦丽和沃尔兹的竞选团队在其网站上匆忙推出了受斯威夫特启发的友谊手链。不到24小时已经销售一空。
