【学术活动】 “Emerging Scholars”实证社会科学研究工作坊

工作坊时间：2024年4月17日晚6:40-9:30

工作坊地点：北京大学理科教学楼214

参与形式：有少量席位可向听众开放（无须报名、先到先得）

题目：How Armed Conflict Transfer? Physical Modeling of Spatial Diffusion and Relocation Dynamics in Latent Space

提要：While battle-related fatalities in armed conflict have globally declined, the surge in both frequency and intensity of political violence underscores the urgent need for advanced forecasting methods. Conventional forecasting approaches often fail to capture the complex, nonlinear dynamics of conflicts, often relying on oversimplified models that overlook critical dependencies within the data. This study introduces an innovative method that combines principles from physics, statistical techniques, and partial differential equations (PDEs), thereby offering a new perspective on modeling the spatiotemporal propagation of political violence. By embedding our wave equation's parameters within a potential field and outcomes in a synergistic framework that combines Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, we significantly enhance the predictive accuracy of conflict forecasting models, achieving a remarkable 56% improvement in accuracy over the ViEWS benchmark model at PRIO-GRID cell-month level. Our approach demonstrates the substantial benefits of integrating physical and machine learning models for conflict prediction in the age of artificial intelligence.

二、黄昱茗：北京大学国际关系学院硕士生，国际政治经济专业。研究兴趣：国家焦虑、情绪蔓延、全球化和文本分析。

题目：全球化中主权国家的身份焦虑——“去边界化”与“再边界化”

提要：全球化是跨越边界和超越边界的进程，它一方面侵蚀国家边界、产生“去边界化”的强大力量，另一方面它又遭受到国际关系“领土主权”元规则的阻碍和反抗，表现为近年来逆全球化运动的影响在国家层面上以“再边界化”这一极具象征意义的方式日益彰显。在国际关系的话语中，“国家边界”由传统国际安全大幅转向现代身份政治，反映了数十年的全球化进程累积的国家在本体安全意义上的深层焦虑。近年来提出的对边界概念的再探索和构建相关指标，正是为了系统测量和解释在国家领土范围内聚集的身份焦虑，并追踪这种焦虑的对外指向性。本研究探索全球化带来的压力和国家身份焦虑之间的关系，从实证上检验主权国家的身份焦虑是否、以及在何种程度上来自于全球化对主权的侵蚀。结果表明，国家身份焦虑并非是“反全球化”，而是如何在全球化中更有效地过滤外部风险，控制全球化的进程从而降低全球化带来的压力——跨越边界的自由流动本身并不是“身份焦虑”的罪魁祸首，而是失去对外部风险的有效控制、国家无力保护本国公民免受全球化的负面影响，导致主权国家的身份焦虑。换言之，主权国家身份焦虑并非等同于反全球化，而是关于如何管控和治理全球化带来的“去边界”的风险。

三、吕蕙伊 ：清华大学社会科学学院博士研究生。研究方向为政治暴力，和平协议，计算社会科学研究方法。研究发表于《当代亚太》、《国际政治科学》等期刊。

题目：Dissecting the Digital Dark: Internet Shutdowns and Domestic Conflicts

提要：This study investigates the impact of government-imposed Internet shutdowns on the incidence and strategies of domestic conflicts. Drawing on theories of collective action, political violence, and digital repression, this study argues that the effects of Internet shutdowns are highly contingent on the type and stage of domestic conflicts, as well as the broader political-institutional context. Utilizing a cross-national panel dataset covering 205 countries from January 2016 to December 2022, this research employs fixed effects models to estimate the short-term, mid-term, and long-term impacts of Internet shutdowns on different forms of domestic conflict, including protests, direct violence, and indirect violence. The findings reveal that while shutdowns may curb protest activities in the short term, they can intensify direct conflicts and indirect violence in the long run. Moreover, the impact of shutdowns is significantly moderated by democratic institutions, with stronger associations between shutdowns and conflicts in democratic countries compared to authoritarian regimes. These results highlight the complex and context-dependent nature of digital repression and its implications for political violence in the digital age.

四、吴焕璋：北京大学燕京学堂硕士生，专业方向为政治与国际关系。本科毕业于北京大学国际关系学院国际政治专业（国际组织与国际公共政策）。研究兴趣为国际组织、中美关系、政治传播和量化社科方法。硕士毕业去向：赴圣路易斯华盛顿大学攻读政治学博士。

题目：Interstate Socialization and Leadership in International Organizations: A Case Study on China-led AIIB

提要：International organizations (IOs) can often be utilized as instruments for states, particularly a powerful leading state in IOs to induce changes in other member states' voting behavior with material incentives and punishment. Despite being used to proxy for state preferences, voting behavior does not necessarily align with them. Moreover, there is an alternative way of inducing changes in state preferences via IOs. Building on theories of socialization in IOs, I argue that socialization via a state-led IO can be an effective mechanism for the leading state to shape its member states' preferences. Drawing on the United Nations General Debate (UNGD) Corpus, I examine this argument with a case study focused on non-Chinese founding members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), using the computational text analysis method "Wordscores" for measuring foreign policy positions and Bayesian Dynamic Multilevel Latent Factor Model (DM-LFM) for causal inference. My empirical findings suggest that these AIIB founders' foreign policy preferences converged slightly toward China's over time from 2016 to 2019. My research also speaks to one way in which China could challenge the US via IOs of international development.

五、叶人豪：北京大学政府管理学院2023级政治学理论硕士研究生，研究兴趣包括政治经济发展，国有企业，精英政治，官僚制。

题目：“制度化的自然灾害风险”：来自中国国家蓄滞洪区的证据

提要：学界已经有大量对于自然灾害影响的讨论，但对于通过制度化“人为”的自然灾害风险（man-made natural hazard）讨论不多。本文基于2000年中国国务院《蓄滞洪区运用补偿暂行办法》（下文简称“洪区政策”）出台进行一项探索性研究。虽然这并不意味着自然灾害的真实发生，但是相关工程和政策导致该地区经历自然灾害冲击的潜在风险上升。运用来自243个洪区县的统计年鉴数据和调查数据，利用多期双重差分法，本文发现洪区政策对洪区县的产业结构和家户规模产生负向影响，表明传统的农业结构和大家族对于潜在风险的抵御能力不足，向更能抵御洪水的工业主导和核心家庭转变。这一发现可以为灾害政治学研究提供一定的理论贡献。

评论人：“国际关系实证分析”学圈成员——安明嘉, 陈涵, 陈虹羽, 封韦帆, 高昕阳, 何谦, 罗梦嘉, 宋欣怡, 涂针华, 王远航, 辛雨蔚, 杨嘉明, 叶人豪, 赵书韫, 周源（按姓氏拼音首字母排序）

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