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概要：随着几大科技股的上涨，美股市值占全球市场比例也上升到了历史高点。这不同于2000年互联网泡沫，日本房地产泡沫破灭前以及二战后的情况，美股的强势根源于美国上市公司超强的盈利能力。
American stocks are consuming global markets
That does not necessarily spell trouble
June 27th 2024
注：spell trouble 预示麻烦
Sixteen yearsago American stockmarkets reached their modern nadir. During the early 2000s European and emerging-market equities went on a bull run. By March 2008 America had entered recession and its financial crisis was under way. The country’s stocks accounted for less than 40% of the world’s total stockmarket capitalisation.
注：nadir /ˈneɪdɪər/ 最低点，最底部。例句：The relationship between the two countries reached its nadir during the conflict. (两国关系在冲突期间达到了最低点。)
Fast-forward to today and things look rather different. America’s share of the world’s stockmarket capitalisation has climbed pretty consistently over the past decade and a half, and sharply this year. It now stands at 61%. That is astonishing dominance for a country which accounts for just over a quarter of globalGDP. The extent of market concentration is all the more extreme given what is happening within the American stockmarket itself. Just three companies—Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia—make up a tenth of the market value of global stocks.
注：仅苹果、微软和英伟达三只股票的市值就占了全球股票市值的十分之一。
Investors who would rather not put all their eggs in one basket are worried. Nvidia is now so large that a 13% fall in the chip-designer’s share price between June 18th and 24th, driven by not very much at all, knocked 0.5% off the value of theMSCI All Country World Index, which covers both emerging and developed markets. The company’s share price later rebounded, rising by 7% over the following two days.
注：MSCIAll Country World Index (ACWI)是一个全球股票指数，衡量发达市场和新兴市场的股票表现。截至2019年底，它覆盖了全球超过3000只股票。
History offers a mixed picture when it comes to market concentration. Sometimes the dominance of a single country or a handful of stocks is a warning. For instance, during the dotcom bubble, which inflated in the late 1990s, the ten largest American stocks made up a third of domestic market capitalisation, similar to their share today. At the country level, Japan provides an ominous example. By the end of 1989, just before its asset bubble burst, Japanese stocks accounted for 40% of the global total. The four largest companies by market capitalisation were Japanese banks.
But concentration can also be benign. During the 1950s and early 1960s, markets were concentrated in both a single country and a small group of firms within it. Europe was still recovering from the second world war and Asian markets had yet to reach global prominence, meaning that American stocks made up as much as 70% of the global market. A handful of blue-chip firms, such as AT&T, Exxon and General Motors, were ascendant. Indeed, the ten biggest stocks also accounted for a third of the stockmarket back then, without obvious adverse consequences.
注：benign /bɪˈnaɪn/ 良性的，和善的。例句：The doctor assured her that the tumor was benign and would not cause any harm. (医生向她保证，肿瘤是良性的，不会造成任何伤害。)
Does today’s situation resemble the benign leadership of the 1960s or the speculative bubble of the late 1990s? Valuations are certainly steep. Nvidia has a price-to-income ratio of 43, based on earnings expected next year. That explains the volatility on show over the past week. Relatively small changes in expectations can drive large movements in market value, especially when a company is as large as Nvidia. The recent broader market rally is based on hopes about the future impact of artificial intelligence, which is inherently uncertain.
注：由于当前美股估值较高，因此略有风吹草动，市场就会出现较大幅度的波动。
Yet even at current prices, there is a gulf between today’sAI-driven optimism and past periods of speculative mania. In 2000 Cisco Systems, a darling of optimistic investors, traded at over 125 times its expected earnings. The price-to-earnings ratio of Japanese stocks—not just the priciest firms, but the entire market—reached 60 in 1989.
注：但AI热潮和2000年的互联网泡沫仍有很大区别。
Instead of speculative excess, the main reason for America’s dominance is more prosaic. The earnings per share of theMSCI US index have risen by 162% since March 2008. By contrast, the earnings per share of global markets excluding America have dropped by 2% in dollars terms over that time. More than those anywhere else, American firms have shown an ability to grow, become profitable and return money to investors.
注：自2008年3月以来，美股每股收益增长了162%，而其他市场则下滑了2%。
prosaic /prəˈzeɪɪk/ 单调的，缺乏想象力的。例句：His prose is clear but rather prosaic.(他的散文清晰但相当平淡。)
In reality, only a bit of America’s dominance reflects technology companies. Perhaps the most revealing analysis is one that removes them from the calculation entirely. Exclude tech firms and America’s share of global equities falls to 55%. Even that share is the highest it has been in decades, up by more than 20 percentage points from its low in 2008.
注：除去科技公司以外的其他美股占全球市场比例也大幅上升。
This is not an argument for complacency about an undeniably expensive market. But concentration is always a symptom of some driving force. When it comes to America’s current dominance, the driving force is entirely familiar: strong companies in new markets have become highly profitable. Although diversification remains a worthy goal, diversifying away from success is unlikely to leave investors very happy.■
注：美股强势的根本原因在于美国上市公司强大的盈利能力。
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