The coming years will be the hottest ever
未来几年将出现人类史上最热天气
The world could soon breach its 1.5°C target for global warming
本文主要探讨未来几年即将出现的人类史上最热天气这一话题。世界天气正处于厄尔尼诺天气周期当中，刚刚经历了连续三年的周期中较冷的“拉尼娜”天气。有理由预计，在进入厄尔尼诺天气周期较热阶段时，将出现人类史上最热天气。在这种天气下，各国很难履行之前所作的天气承诺。
IN 2015, in Paris, the nations of the world committed themselves to trying their best to prevent the planet warming by more than 1.5°C from its pre-industrial state. Even at the time, the goal looked ambitious. In recent years, it has come to seem almost impossible.
On May 17th the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), an arm of the United Nations, added to the gloom. It said there was a 66% chance that the world would exceed the 1.5°C threshold in at least one of the next five years. That is a big jump from its estimates of even a year ago, when the WMO assessed the likelihood at 48%. Even if the 1.5°C target is not breached, the WMO thinks it is virtually certain that one of the coming five years will be the hottest in human history. (That record is now held by 2016, which was 1.28°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.)
注：Meteorological adj. 气象的；气象学的。例如：meteorological satellite 气象卫星。World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)是指世界气象组织。
add to the gloom 雪上加霜，表示情况本来就很糟糕，现在变得更糟了。例如：The sudden loss of her best friend on top of her already stressful week only added to the gloom she was feeling.（在她本已紧张的一周中，突然失去了最好的朋友，这更增加了她的沮丧感。）
one of the coming five years will be the hottest in human history，地球上肯定有更热的时期，但是在人类史上，未来几年可能出现最热天气
Optimists point out even if the 1.5°C threshold is breached in the coming half-decade, temperatures will likely fall back again, at least for a while. The Paris agreement would not, technically be breached. (That would require exceeding 1.5°C for several years.) Over the next few years the growing level of human-driven warming will be amplified further by natural, but transient, changes.
注：Transient短暂的、暂时的或临时的，例如：Many cities have problems with transient populations, such as homeless people or migrant workers who stay for short periods of time.（许多城市都有流动人口问题，包括无家可归的人或短期停留的外来工人。）
The biggest of those variations is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle of warming and cooling in the waters of the eastern Pacific ocean that has widespread effects on the climate. The world has just seen three consecutive “La Niña” years, the name given to the cooler phase of the cycle, helping hold global temperatures down. It now seems almost certain that a warmer “El Niño” phase will begin sometime later this year, setting up 2024 to be a scorcher. (One reason for the 2016 record is that the year coincided with an especially strong El Niño.)
注：The world has just seen three consecutive “La Niña” years, the name given to the cooler phase of the cycle, helping hold global temperatures down. 世界刚刚经历了连续三年的周期中较冷阶段、有助于降低全球气温的“拉尼娜”现象。
"Scorcher"是一个俚语词汇，用于描述非常炎热的一天或一段时间，炎热导致在阳光下感到极度灼烧。也可以用来形容某些很激烈或兴奋人心的事物，例如“scorcher game”（非常刺激的游戏比赛）。
But the ENSO is not the only factor. An additional temporary nudge could come from the eruption last year of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano, near Tonga. It was one of the biggest eruptions since that of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in the 1990s, and injected an estimated 146m tonnes of water vapour into thestratosphere. Water vapour, like carbon dioxide, is a greenhouse gas. Unlike carbon dioxide, it will gradually fall out of the stratosphere over the next few years. But Stuart Jenkins, a climatologist at Oxford University, reckons that while it persists it could increase the odds of passing 1.5°C by a few percentage points.
注：“Nudge” 指"轻推"或"轻碰"，通常用于形容轻轻用手肘或手臂推动或碰撞某人或某物，以引起注意。本文中意为轻微的影响。
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano（洪阿哈阿帕伊岛火山）位于南太平洋岛汤加王国哈派群岛以南约30公里，绝大部分位于海平面以下。这座火山非常活跃，最高海拔149米。2022年1月14、15日，该岛海底火山连续两天剧烈喷发，首都努库阿洛法出现1.2米高的海啸。
Mount Pinatubo即菲律宾位于吕宋岛的皮纳图博火山。该火山曾因1991年6月15日的一次历史性喷发而闻名于世。这次喷发是20世纪最大的火山喷发之一，对全球气候产生了重大影响，火山灰和粉尘颗粒释放到大气中，导致之后几年全球气温暂时降低了约1华氏度。
“Stratosphere” 指平流层。平流层是大气圈中的一层，位于对流层和中间层之间。该层位于海拔约10至50公里之间，其中包含少量水汽和氧气、氮气等气体。平流层与对流层不同，空气相对来说比较稳定，能够吸收和分散来自太阳的大部分紫外线辐射，这对地球生物的生存尤为重要。
Reckon 指认为、估计或推断某事，通常用于口语中，具有主观性。
Some tentatively encouraging signs gleam amid the gloom. Global emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels seem to have gone sideways for several years, leading some researchers to speak cautiously of a possible peak. Rystad Energy, a Norwegian think-tank, predicted earlier this year that global emissions of carbon dioxide from industry could peak in 2025 and then begin a slow decline.
注：Tentatively指“暂时地”或“试探性地”。例如："He tentatively agreed to the proposal, but has not made the final decision."表示他暂时同意了这项提议，但还没有做最终决定。
gleam amid the gloom指“黑暗中闪耀的一丝光明”。其中，“gleam”表示一点微光，“gloom”表示黑暗、沮丧的境况。gleam和gloom是英文押头韵修辞手法，该短语常见于文学作品中。
Even so, the world’s actions still fall far short of its promises. Even the upper end of the goals agreed in Paris—of limiting warming to “well below 2°C”—will be achievable only with drastic action. For Europe and America to meet their commitments, for instance, would require them to switch off all their fossil-fired power plants within the next three decades.
注：Drastic指“激烈的”、“彻底的”或“极端的”。常见搭配包括drastic measures（激烈或彻底的措施），drastic changes（突然且巨大的变化）。
And simply stopping emissions will not be enough. Somewhere between 3.5bn and 5.4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide will need to be sucked out of the atmosphere every year, rising to 4.7bn to 9.8bn tonnes within 30 years. All that is a big ask, to put it mildly. But the optimist’s take might be that the psychological impact of breaching the 1.5°C goal, even if only temporarily, could help focus minds.
注：a big ask指“艰难的要求”、或“很难实现的要求”。例如：“Asking me to climb Mount Everest next week is a big ask.”（让我下周登上珠峰是极其困难的要求。）
to put it mildly 英语习语，表示克制或保守评价，可翻译为“委婉地说”、“保守地评价”。通常被用来比所表述的要更为严重的情况。例如，“The movie was terrible, to put it mildly.”（即使是委婉地说，这部电影也非常糟糕。）
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