关注公众号，回复“进群”进经济学人精读打卡群。
概要：近来，日本经济出现了诸多好转的迹象，就业市场火爆，股市指数创出历史新高，就连便当的价格也数次上涨。不过，其中也有一些隐忧，如人口老龄化，工资提高赶不上物价上涨，30年停滞不前导致的消极消费心理等等。
Japan’s mind-bending bento-box economics （日本令人费解的便当盒经济）
The paradox of red-hot labour markets, falling demand and rising prices（火热的就业市场、消费需求下降和物价上涨之间的悖论）
July 1st 2024
For much of the past three decades Japan’s economy has been defined by deflation, stagnation and fading global relevance. That is no longer the case. Between 1991 and 2021 Japan’s annual inflation rate averaged 0.35%. Inflation has been above 2% every month since April 2022. In March the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised rates for the first time in 17 years, doing away with the world’s last experiment in negative interest rates; it will debate another rise at its next meeting at the end of this month. The blue-chip Nikkei stock index broke its bubble-era high this February; the Topix, a broader benchmark index, hit its highest level since 1990 last week. It seems that the lost decades are over.
在过去的三十年中，日本经济往往被认为处于通缩、停滞和全球影响力逐渐消失过程中。然而，这种情况已经不再。从1991年到2021年，日本年通胀率平均为0.35%。而自2022年4月以来，通胀率每个月都超过2%。今年3月，日本央行（BoJ）17年来首次提高利率，结束了世界上最后一个负利率国家的身份；该行还将在本月底会议上讨论是否再次上调利率。蓝筹股日经指数在今年2月创下了泡沫时代的最高点；更广泛的基准指数Topix上周达到了自1990年以来的最高水平。看起来，失去的三十年结束了。
But what comes next? Some see opportunity. Japan, the optimists crow, is back—this time for real. Morgan Stanley, a bank, touts a “revitalised Japan”. Higher inflation and more dynamic companies will put the country back on a growth trajectory, allowing it to keep its public debt in check and hang on to its place among the world’s top economies. Japan has become a destination for high-tech firms seeking to reinforce supply chains: TSMC, the Taiwanese semiconductor giant, is pouring billions of dollars into new manufacturing plants.
但接下来会发生什么？一些人看到了其中的机会。乐观人士高呼，日本已经回来了——这一次是真正的。摩根士丹利银行主张“日本复苏”论。更高的通胀率和更具活力的公司将让日本重新进入增长轨道，控制公共债务，并保持其在世界顶级经济体中的地位。日本已成为寻求加强供应链的高科技公司的目的地：台湾半导体巨头台积电正在向日本新制造厂投入数十亿美元。
Others take a gloomier view. Some argue that after three straight quarters of contraction or no growth, Japan has already fallen into mild stagflation. Long-term potential growth remains low, the yen is in freefall and demographic headwinds loom. Pessimists fret that Japan’s future is as a middling economy with burdensome debt, a weak currency and a greying workforce.
另一些人则持悲观态度。有人认为，在经历了连续三个季度的萎缩或零增长之后，日本已经陷入了轻微的滞胀。长期潜在增长率仍然很低，日元正在自由落体，而人口结构逆风问题也隐现。悲观者担心，日本未来可能只会成为一个中等经济体，必须面对沉重的债务负担、疲软的日元和老龄化的劳动力。
The implications of the new era can be seen in Nihonbashi, a neighbourhood in Tokyo’s north-east. Its fate has long moved in parallel with that of the national economy. During the Edo era (between 1603 and 1868), merchants congregated there, making it the country’s commercial centre; during the Meiji period (1868-1912), when Japan opened up to the world, it became home to the first institutions of modern finance. Highways built above Nihonbashi’s bridge in 1963 symbolised the country’s booming growth in the decades after the second world war; shuttered stores along Nihonbashi’s avenues attested to the bursting of the asset bubble in the 1990s.
日本复苏的影响可以在东京东北部的商业中心日本桥看到。日本桥的命运长期以来与日本经济密切相关。在江户时代（1603年至1868年）期间，商人们聚集在这里，日本桥成为国家的商业中心；明治时期（1868年至1912年），日本向世界开放后，日本桥成为现代金融的第一批机构所在地。1963年建成的高速公路桥上的高架道路象征着二战后几十年间日本经济的蓬勃发展；1990年代日本桥大道上关闭的商店则见证了资产泡沫的破灭。
Today, the neighbourhood offers a window on Japan’s new economic reality. Start at Benmatsu Souhonten, which bills itself as Japan’s oldest continuous purveyor of bento, or boxed lunches, with a history that stretches back to before America’s “black ships” arrived to open Japan to foreign trade. More recently the soaring cost of imports caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have acted as a black ship of sorts. What was once unimaginable has become commonplace: companies consistently raise prices and consumers keep coming back. Benmatsu Souhonten has increased bento prices twice in the past two years. “These days customers understand prices go up,” says Higuchi Junichi, the shop’s eighth-generation owner.
今天，日本桥成为展示日本新经济现实的一扇窗口。首先来到弁松總本店。该店自称是日本历史最悠久的便当供应商，其历史可以追溯到美国的“黑船”抵达日本、日本开放对外贸易之前。最近，疫情和乌克兰战争导致的进口成本飙升有点类似于“黑船”的作用。曾经不可想象的事情如今变得司空见惯：公司不断提高价格，消费者依然如故。弁松總本店在过去两年内已经两次提高了便当的售价。“如今顾客明白价格上涨是不可避免的，”店铺的第八代店主Higuchi Junichi如是说道。
It is a change that officials inside the Bank of Japan, down the street from Benmatsu Souhonten, have spent years trying to engineer, to little effect. While central banks elsewhere raised rates in response to rising inflation, the BoJ did nothing, hoping to use the external shocks to re-anchor domestic expectations for inflation near its 2% target. The strategy appears to be working. Prices for a wider swathe of goods are rising at faster rates than at any time since the 1990s (see chart). Expectations have risen and stayed up: the BoJ’s latest Tankan survey on corporate sentiment, released on July 1st, shows that firms expect inflation of 2% or higher five years into the future.
在离弁松總本店不远的日本银行内部，长期以来一直在努力推动变革，但效果甚微。当其他国家央行针对通胀上升而提高利率时，日本央行却什么也没做，只是希望利用外部冲击重新锚定国内的接近2%的目标通胀预期。这一战略似乎正在奏效。更广泛范围商品的价格上涨速度创下自1990年以来的最高纪录（见图）。价格上涨预期已经上升并保持稳定：日本央行7月1日发布的最新企业信心调查Tankan显示，企业预计未来五年通胀率将达到2%或更高。
剩余50%请订阅以下专栏（仅需10元）继续阅读：
