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概要：为了弥补老龄化背景下的劳动力不足，亚洲富裕国家和地区正在吸引来自中国和印尼等国家的移民。但是他们之间也有不同，日韩文化上比较排斥外来人口，而台湾和新加坡则拥抱不同种族的劳动力。
Rich parts of Asia are on the hunt for immigrants
亚洲富裕国家和地区正在吸引移民
But the demographic maths remain unforgiving
但人口统计上依然无解
August 29th 2024
For a lesson on how complaining gets results, look to South Korea. Economists have long warned the country’s shrinking working-age population would create a shortfall, but few have moaned about it as assiduously as the business lobby. Finally, their pressure has yielded results. Last year the quota for E-9 visas, which cover “non-professional” workers, was 120,000, by a wide margin the most ever (see chart). This year the E-9 quota will rise to 165,000. The total stock of migrant labour increased by 9% in 2023.
assiduously /əˈsɪdʒuəsli/ 刻苦地；勤勉地。例句：He studied assiduously for the exam.（他为考试刻苦学习。）
关于抱怨是如何取得成果的，去看看韩国就知道了。长期以来，经济学家一直警告说，韩国劳动年龄人口减少会造成短缺问题，但很少有人像商业游说团体那样坚持不懈地抱怨此事。最终，他们的施压取得了成果。去年，涵盖“非专业”工人的 E-9 签证配额为 12 万，远远超过以往任何时候（见图）。今年，E-9 签证配额将增加到 16.5 万。2023 年，韩国移民劳动力总量增加了 9%。
This is good news for South Korea. Between 2016 and 2022 its population of foreign labourers stagnated, even as labour shortages grew increasingly severe. Low visa quotas and tough eligibility conditions were only the beginning. Workers who did manage to enter the country had few routes to permanent residency and faced limits on bringing in family members.
这对韩国来说是个好消息。2016 年至 2022 年间，韩国的外国劳动力人口停滞不前，尽管劳动力短缺问题日益严重。低签证配额和严格的资格条件只是其中一部分问题。那些成功进入韩国的工人获得永久居留权的途径很少，并且在携带家属方面面临限制。
Belatedly and slowly, barriers are coming down. A new scheme announced in February will let the parents of international students there perform seasonal work in labour-starved rural areas. And more transient workers are being encouraged to stay. In the 2010s only 400 workers per year were allowed to go from a temporary E-9 visa to an indefinitely renewable E-7-4 visa, notes Jonathan Chaloff, a migration specialist at the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries. The cap was raised in 2022 to 2,000, and this year South Korea will let up to 35,000 non-professional migrant workers stay.
Belatedly /bɪˈleɪtɪdli/ 延迟地；事后悔悟地。例句：He apologized belatedly for his mistake.（他为自己的错误事后悔悟地道歉。）
transient /ˈtrænziənt/ 短暂的；转瞬即逝的。例句：The happiness was transient and soon disappeared.（这种幸福是短暂的，很快就消失了。）
障碍正在姗姗来迟且缓慢地消除。2 月份宣布的一项新计划将允许韩国国际学生的父母在劳动力短缺的农村地区从事季节性工作。政策正鼓励更多的临时工留下来。OECD（一个主要由富裕国家组成的俱乐部）的移民专家乔纳森·查洛夫指出，在 2010 年代，每年只有 400 名工人被允许从临时 E-9 签证转为可无限续签的 E-7-4 签证。2022 年，这一上限提高到了 2000 人，今年韩国将允许多达 3.5 万名非专业移民工人留下来。
It is part of a trend. Last year the stock of migrant labour hit record highs in Japan, Taiwan and Singapore. Japan’s 2m foreign workers in 2023, a 12% rise from the year before, was nearly triple the number a decade ago. Singapore and Taiwan’s foreign workforces are now 7% and 11% bigger than in 2019, respectively. A Taiwanese scheme that came into force in 2022 lets mid-skill migrants with significant work experience become residents. Singapore is loosening limits on low- and mid-skill visas for jobs aligned with the country’s “strategic economic priorities”. Singapore shares this aim with Japan, which in 2019 launched a programme for letting in “specified skilled workers” in industries afflicted by shortages, such as nursing.
afflict /əˈflɪkt/ 使痛苦；折磨。例句：The disease afflicted many people in the region.（这种疾病折磨着这个地区的许多人。）
这一趋势仍在继续。去年，日本、台湾和新加坡的外籍劳工数量达到了历史新高。2023年，日本有200万外籍工人，比前一年增加了12%，几乎是十年前的三倍。新加坡和台湾的外籍劳动力分别比2019年增加了7%和11%。台湾在2022年实施的一项计划允许具有丰富工作经验的中等技能移民成为居民。新加坡正在放宽与国家“战略经济优先事项”相一致的低技能和中等技能工作签证的限制。与日本一样，新加坡在2019年启动了一个项目，允许在护理等劳动力短缺行业中的“特定技能工人”入境。
Big differences remain. Immigration is politically contentious in parts of Asia. Many in Japan and South Korea still prize homogeneity. By contrast Singapore is a proudly multi-ethnic society. Taiwan has avowed the need to protect its “multicultural heritage”. These differences are visible in labour-market data. The foreign workforce’s share in South Korea and Japan, at 3% of each of their total labour forces, is much smaller than in Taiwan (at 7%) or Singapore (at 39%).
avow /əˈvaʊ/ 公开宣称；承认。例句：He avowed his love for her in front of everyone.（他在众人面前公开宣称他对她的爱。）
不过，不同国家之间依然存在巨大的差异。在亚洲部分地区，移民在政治上是有争议的。例如日本和韩国许多人仍然更喜欢本国人。相比之下，新加坡是自豪的多民族社会。台湾则公开宣称需要保护“多元文化遗产”。这些差异在劳动力市场数据中显而易见。韩国和日本的外国劳动力占总劳动力的3%,远低于台湾(7%)和新加坡(39%)。
Is the recent momentum grounds for hope? The scale of the problem is daunting. To stabilise long-run growth, South Korea must raise the foreign share of its workforce to 15% over the next four decades, argues Michael Clemens, an economist, in a recent paper. Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest the foreign workforce would have to expand around 4% a year for 40 years to meet Mr Clemens’s mark. This will be hard, but there is room for hope: it grew 3.3% annually over the past decade, due to strong growth in the 2010s. A state think-tank in Japan reckons it needs an additional 2.1m foreign workers by 2030. That implies an 11% annual expansion, in line with the rate Japan achieved in the past decade.
back-of-the-envelope 粗略地
But this numerical exercise understates how hard sustaining high inflows of people will be. As rich Asia competes for workers, they may become harder to attract. Many migrant workers’ countries of origin, including Indonesia and China, are themselves ageing. And an anti-immigrant backlash could increase. Indeed, a recent Taiwanese plan to bring in more Indian workers sparked demonstrations. ■
backlash /ˈbæklæʃ/ 强烈反对；反冲。例句：There was a backlash against the new policy.（出现了对新政策的强烈反对。）
但这个数字低估了维持高人口流入的难度。随着亚洲富裕国家和地区争夺工人，吸引移民可能变得更难。包括印度尼西亚和中国在内的许多移民工人原籍国本身也在老龄化。反移民的阻力可能会增加。事实上，最近台湾引进更多印度工人的计划已经引发了示威游行。■
