关注本公众号，回复“进群”进经济学人打卡群

概要：本文讲述了橙汁价格上涨的原因，尤其强调了几个主要产地产量受到气候影响大幅下滑，同时黄龙病也是很大的威胁。文中还提到了农产品期货的暴涨。（生词在最后）

Why orange juice has never been more expensive 为什么橙汁如此昂贵

Pity those who rely on the breakfast staple 同情那些依赖橙汁作为早餐主食的人吧

September 12th 2024

Mimosas have a simple recipe: one part champagne, one part orange juice. Soon, though, the tipple may be even less affordable—and not because sparkling wine is ever more expensive. Concentrate orange-juice futures in New York, which soft-drink producers use to hedge against price swings, have quadrupled since late 2021. They hit an intraday high of $5.80 a pound on September 9th, their fifth record in a week.

橘汁香槟酒的配方很简单：一份香槟，一份橙汁。然而，很快这种饮品可能会更加让人难以负担 —— 这并不是因为香槟起泡酒变得更贵了。自 2021 年底以来，纽约的浓缩橙汁期货（软饮料生产商用来对冲价格波动）已经翻了两番。9 月 9 日，其价格创下了每磅 5.80 美元的盘中高点，这是一周内的第五次新高。

The problem is that the market for oranges to make concentrate is very concentrated. Growth of the fruit in Florida, once the world’s second-biggest producer, has wilted by 92% in the past 20 years after being hit by pests, hurricanes and rising costs. Other growers, such as Mexico and Spain, largely supply the fresh-fruit market. That leaves Brazil, which accounts for 70% of the world’s production and a similar share of exports. And now it, too, is in trouble.

问题在于用于制作浓缩汁的橙子市场的集中度非常高。在过去 20 年里，曾经是世界第二大橙子生产地的佛罗里达州橙子产量因害虫、飓风和成本上升而减少了 92%。墨西哥和西班牙等其他生产国主要供应新鲜水果市场。这就使得巴西成为了关键。巴西占世界橙子产量的 70%，出口份额也类似。而现在巴西也陷入了困境。

At the start of the year the market already faced bitter prospects. After yet another cataclysmic harvest in Florida—the worst since before the second world war—global stocks looked bare. Then, in May, growers from São Paulo, Brazil’s main orange-producing state, forecast that the year’s crop would fall by 24% compared with the year before, after an ultra-hot flowering season. Farmers also faced a resurgence in citrus greening, an untreatable bacterial disease that turns oranges sour before killing the tree.

今年年初，市场就已经面临严峻的前景。在佛罗里达州又一次灾难性的收成之后（自第二次世界大战前以来最糟糕的一次），全球库存很少。然后，在 5 月份，巴西主要橙子生产地圣保罗州的种植者预测，在酷热的开花季后，今年的收成将比前一年下降 24%。农民们还面临着柑橘黄龙病的再次爆发，这是一种无法治愈的细菌性疾病，会使橙子变酸，然后杀死果树。

But now even that gloomy forecast looks optimistic, says Andrés Padilla of Rabobank, a Dutch lender. Brazil’s drought is getting worse—parts of São Paulo have seen no rain for four months. Greening is out of control: in swathes of the state two-thirds of trees are infected. Bigger farmers can afford to protect groves by using nets or insecticides. For smaller ones the only fix is to root out potentially diseased trees. High prices mean many prefer to keep their groves in the ground, so infections persist.

但是现在即使是那个悲观的预测看起来也很乐观，荷兰合作银行的安德烈斯・帕迪拉说。巴西的干旱正在加剧 —— 圣保罗的部分地区已经四个月没有下雨了。黄龙病已经失控：在该州的大片地区，三分之二的树都被感染了黄龙病。较大的农场可以使用网子或杀虫剂来保护果园。对于较小的农场来说，唯一的解决办法是根除潜在的病树。高价格意味着许多人更愿意让果树留在地里，所以黄龙病感染将持续存在。

In many fields damage has already been done, meaning this year’s harvest is doomed. The next few could be just as bad. New trees take four years to bear fruit; they too could be exposed to greening. Droughts could sap yields again. Planting in other regions may help, but suitable areas lack water access and are too far away from juice plants, which means that progress is very slow. Some farmers may opt to plant less risky crops than oranges, such as sugar cane.

许多田地已经遭到损害，这意味着今年的收成注定不佳。接下来的几年可能也一样糟糕。新树需要四年才能结果；且可能会感染黄龙病。干旱可能会再次降低产量。在其他地区种植可能会有所帮助，但合适的地区缺乏水源，并且离果汁厂太远，这意味着进展非常缓慢。一些农民可能会选择种植甘蔗等比橙子风险更小的作物。

Despite high prices, global demand for juice remains strong, because consumers are affluent enough to pay more. This may lift producers’ profits a little, but not by much, for they also face higher costs. Shortages may start to occur soon, probably outside America and Europe, which will be prioritised by retailers as the largest orange-juice markets. Barring a miracle, things look rotten for seekers of Vitamin C. ■

尽管价格很高，全球果汁需求仍然强劲，消费者支付能力足够。这可能会稍微提高生产商的利润，但不会太多，因为他们也面临着更高的成本。橙子短缺可能很快就会开始出现，可能会扩散在美洲和欧洲以外的地区，零售商将优先考虑这些世界上最大的橙汁市场。除非有奇迹发生，否则对于维生素 C 的消费者来说，他们将不得不支付更高价格购买橙子。

概要：本文讲述了橙汁价格上涨的原因，尤其强调了几个主要产地产量受到气候影响大幅下滑，同时黄龙病也是很大的威胁。文中还提到了农产品期货的暴涨。

加我自动邀请进群：

生词：

tipple /ˈtɪpl/ 酒；含酒精饮料。例句：He enjoys a tipple after work.(他下班后喜欢喝一杯。)

wilt /wɪlt/ 枯萎；凋谢。例句：The flowers wilted in the heat.(花在炎热中枯萎了。)

cataclysmic /ˌkætəˈklɪzmɪk/ 灾难性的；大变动的。例句：The earthquake was a cataclysmic event.(这场地震是一场灾难性的事件。)

bare /beə(r)/ 空的；赤裸的。例句：The cupboard is bare.(橱柜是空的。)

citrus greening 柑橘黄龙病（Huanglongbing, HLB），也称为柑橘绿变病，是由特定细菌属《Candidatus Liberibacter》引起的一种严重威胁全球柑橘产业的疾病。这些细菌主要通过亚洲柑橘木虱（Diaphorina citri）传播，影响柑橘树的韧皮部功能，导致根系衰退，改变植物源-汇关系，最终使树木在产量极低之前就会衰弱并死亡。

grove /ɡrəʊv/ 小树林；果园。例句：There is an apple grove behind the house.(房子后面有一个苹果园。)

sap /sæp/ 削弱；使衰竭。例句：The illness sapped his strength.(疾病削弱了他的力量。)

affluent /ˈæfluənt/ 富裕的；富足的。例句：They live in an affluent neighborhood.(他们住在一个富裕的社区。)

barring a miracle 除非有奇迹发生。