Emergency masks were deployed during the Singapore Airlines flight that experienced severe turbulence last week, killing one man.
Severe turbulence on a Singapore Airlines flight from London to Singapore has left a 73-year-old man dead and injured more than 70 people. The incident, although rare, is raising questions about what caused such a serious disruption to the flight — and whether climate change will make the strength and frequency of turbulence on planes worse.
在新加坡航空公司一架从伦敦飞往新加坡的航班上，严重的湍流导致一名 73 岁的老人死亡，70 多人受伤。这起事件虽然罕见，但却引发了人们的疑问：是什么原因导致航班受到如此严重的影响？气候变化是否会使飞机上湍流的强度和频率变得更加严重？
The plane, which departed on 20 May, experienced a sudden drop of around more than 1,800 metres that launched people and objects towards the cabin roof. It is the airline’s first fatal incident in 24 years.
这架飞机于 5 月 20 日起飞，在大约 1800 多米的高空突然下降，将人和物体抛向机舱顶。这是航空公司 24 年来首次发生致命事故。
“Severe turbulence is the one that turns you into a projectile,” says atmospheric researcher Paul Williams at Reading University, UK. “For anyone not wearing a seatbelt it would have been a bit like being on a rollercoaster without any restraint in place — it would have been terrifying,” he says.
英国雷丁大学的大气研究员保罗-威廉姆斯（Paul Williams）说："严重的湍流会把人变成弹丸。"他说："对于没有系安全带的人来说，这就有点像坐过山车，没有任何束缚--那将是非常可怕的。
Nature looks at the science of air turbulence and how climate change will influence it.
《自然》杂志关注空气湍流科学以及气候变化将如何影响空气湍流。
What causes turbulence in aeroplanes?
Most flights experience some level of turbulence. Near the ground, strong winds around the airport can cause turbulence as planes take off or land. At higher altitudes, up- and downwards flows of air in storm clouds can cause mild to severe turbulence as planes fly through or near them. “Nobody likes flying through a storm,” says Williams.
飞机湍流的成因是什么？
大多数航班都会遇到一定程度的湍流。在地面附近，机场周围的强风会在飞机起飞或降落时引起湍流。在高空，当飞机飞过或靠近暴风云时，暴风云中向上和向下的气流会造成轻微到严重的乱流。威廉姆斯说："没有人喜欢在暴风雨中飞行。"
Air flows that move upwards over mountain ranges can also create turbulence. “As the air blows over the mountain, the plane gets lifted up and can become turbulent,” says Williams. Moreover, turbulence often occurs on the edges of jet streams, which are strong air currents that circle the globe. Any turbulence that occurs outside of clouds is called “clear air” turbulence. It could take weeks to establish what kind of turbulence caused the Singapore Airlines incident, says Williams. “Provisionally, there was a storm nearby, but also the conditions were right for clear air turbulence — we need to do some more digging before we can say,” he says.
在山脉上空向上移动的气流也会造成湍流。威廉姆斯说："当气流吹过山脉时，飞机会被抬起，从而产生湍流。"此外，湍流经常发生在喷流的边缘，喷气流是环绕全球的强气流。任何发生在云层之外的湍流都被称为 "晴空"湍流。威廉姆斯说，要确定是哪种乱流导致了新加坡航空公司的事故，可能需要数周的时间。他说："初步判断，当时附近有暴风雨，但同时也具备了发生晴空湍流的条件--我们需要再做一些调查才能下结论。"
Damage in the galley of the Singapore Airlines Boeing 777 aeroplane.
Is climate change making turbulence worse and more frequent?
Climate change is making turbulence more frequent and severe, says atmospheric researcher Jung-Hoon Kim at Seoul National University.
气候变化是否使湍流更加严重和频繁？
首尔国立大学的大气研究人员 Jung-Hoon Kim说，气候变化正在使湍流变得更加频繁和严重。
In a study published last year (2023), Williams and his colleagues found large increases in clear-air turbulence between 1979 and 2020. Over the North Atlantic, severe clear-air turbulence — which is stronger than Earth’s gravity — became 55% more frequent. There were similar increases in turbulence all over the world, he says. The increase is almost certainly the result of climate change, which is strengthening the jet streams that cause turbulence, says Williams. “We already know it’s having an impact,” he says.
威廉姆斯和他的同事在去年发表的一项研究中发现，1979 年至 2020 年间，晴空湍流大幅增加。在北大西洋上空，严重的晴空湍流（比地球引力更强）的频率增加了 55%。他说，世界各地的湍流也有类似的增加。威廉姆斯说，湍流增加几乎可以肯定是气候变化的结果，气候变化正在加强导致湍流的喷流。他说："我们已经知道气候变化正在产生影响。"
In another study, Williams and his colleagues used a climate model to predict that clear-air turbulence would become more severe and frequent as the climate warms. The researchers estimated that severe turbulence would increase in frequency more than light or moderate levels of turbulence. In line with this, Kim and his colleagues found that clear-air turbulence around clouds and mountains would become more frequent with climate change, in a study published last year (2023).
在另一项研究中，威廉姆斯和他的同事利用气候模型预测，随着气候变暖，晴空湍流将变得更加严重和频繁。研究人员估计，严重湍流的增加频率将超过轻度或中度湍流。据此，Kim 和他的同事在去年发表的一项研究中发现，随着气候变化，云层和山脉周围的晴空湍流将变得更加频繁。
Despite the probable rise in turbulence, most flights will carry on as they do now — with light or mild turbulence, says Williams. “It is not that we’ll have to stop flying, or planes will start falling out of the sky,” says Williams. “I’m just saying that for every 10 minutes, you’ve spent in severe turbulence in the past, it could be 20 or 30 minutes in the future,” says Williams.
威廉姆斯说，尽管湍流可能会增加，但大多数航班仍会像现在一样继续飞行--有轻微或温和的湍流。"这并不是说我们将不得不停止飞行，或者飞机开始从天上掉下来。"威廉姆斯说，"我只是说，过去你在严重气流中每花 10 分钟，将来就可能要花 20 或 30 分钟。"
Can we predict and prevent bad turbulence?
Pilots use turbulence projections to plan flight paths. Researchers at weather centres can predict turbulence based on data collected from ground-based sensors and satellites and communicate predictions to pilots. On the plane, pilots use radar to identify storm clouds to avoid. This relies on radiowaves being sent out from the aircraft, which are then reflected back towards sensors that map out the surrounding area.
我们能预测和预防恶劣湍流吗？
飞行员利用湍流预测来规划飞行路线。气象中心的研究人员可以根据地面传感器和卫星收集的数据预测湍流，并将预测结果传达给飞行员。在飞机上，飞行员使用雷达来识别风暴云，以便避开。这依赖于从飞机发出的无线电波，然后反射回绘制周边区域地图的传感器。
But radar cannot detect cloudless clear air turbulence. Another technology called LiDAR could help, says Williams. “LiDAR is similar to radar but uses a different wavelength of light,” says Williams, “Unfortunately it’s expensive, and requires a big heavy box, but it can see invisible clear air turbulence.” If the box can be miniaturised and the cost comes down, it could soon be used, he says. “I’ve seen some experimental flights, and you can indeed see clear air turbulence 20 miles, for example, ahead of the aircraft,” he says.
Until then, “I hope that everybody when they travel, please fasten your seat belts.” says Kim.
但雷达无法探测到万里无云的晴空乱流。威廉姆斯说，另一种名为激光雷达（LiDAR）的技术可以提供帮助。"激光雷达与雷达类似，但使用的是不同波长的光，"威廉姆斯说，"遗憾的是，它价格昂贵，需要一个沉重的大箱子，但它可以看到看不见的晴空乱流。" 他说，如果盒子能够小型化，成本也能降低，那么它很快就能投入使用。他说："我看过一些实验飞行，你确实可以看到清晰的空气乱流，比如说，在飞机前方 20 英里的地方。"
在此之前，"我希望每个人在旅行时都系好安全带。"Kim 说。
LiDAR（Light Detection and Ranging，光探测和测距）是一种通过激光测量距离的遥感技术。LiDAR利用激光脉冲测量目标物体的距离，并通过计算脉冲从发射到返回的时间差来生成精确的三维信息。以下是LiDAR的一些主要特点和应用：
### 主要特点
1. **高精度**：
- LiDAR可以生成高分辨率的三维点云数据，精度可以达到几厘米甚至更高。
2. **快速测量**：
- LiDAR系统能够快速扫描大面积区域，生成详尽的地形图或结构模型。
3. **多种环境下工作**：
- LiDAR可以在白天和夜晚工作，对光照条件要求不高，适用于各种环境条件。
4. **穿透植被**：
- LiDAR激光脉冲能够穿透稀疏植被，测量地表高度，是生成详细地形模型的重要工具。
### 主要组成部分
1. **激光发射器**：
- 发射激光脉冲到目标物体。
2. **激光接收器**：
- 接收从目标物体反射回来的激光脉冲。
3. **扫描仪和光学系统**：
- 控制激光束的方向和范围。
4. **GPS和惯性测量单元（IMU）**：
- 提供高精度的位置和姿态信息，用于数据的地理参考。
5. **计算系统**：
- 处理和存储激光测距数据，生成三维点云图像。
### 应用领域
1. **测绘和地理信息系统（GIS）**：
- LiDAR用于生成高分辨率的地形图和三维城市模型。
2. **自动驾驶汽车**：
- LiDAR传感器用于检测周围环境，帮助车辆实现自动驾驶。
3. **环境监测**：
- 用于森林测量、植被覆盖分析、水资源管理等。
4. **考古学**：
- 帮助发现和记录地表下的考古遗迹。
5. **建筑和工程**：
- 提供详细的建筑结构测量数据，用于施工规划和监测。
### 工作原理
LiDAR系统工作时，激光发射器发射一系列激光脉冲，这些脉冲撞击目标物体后反射回来。接收器捕捉到这些反射脉冲，并测量它们的返回时间。通过计算激光脉冲的飞行时间，可以确定目标物体的距离。将这些距离数据整合起来，就可以生成目标区域的详细三维模型。
### 例子
- 在自动驾驶汽车中，LiDAR传感器扫描周围环境，实时生成三维地图，帮助车辆识别和避让障碍物。
- 在地理测绘中，LiDAR系统可以通过机载或地面设备快速生成高精度的地形模型，用于灾害评估、城市规划等。
LiDAR技术因其高精度和广泛的应用前景，在许多领域中都发挥着重要作用。
内容来源：
Nature (doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-01542-2)
ChatGTP
翻译：
DeepL6
