Acemoglu, D. [@DAcemogluMIT]. (2024, April 9). All of this is bad news for workers... [Tweet]. X. https://x.com/DAcemogluMIT/status/1855144493789467028
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What about the economy under Trump? I don't expect great news for workers, and I see big risks from Trump's overall agenda, both because of his approach to AI and Silicon Valley, and because of his (likely) impact on US institutions.
特朗普执政下的经济会如何？我预计对工人来说不会有好消息，我认为特朗普的整体议程存在重大风险，这既是因为他对人工智能和硅谷的态度，也是因为他（可能）对美国机构的影响。
Trump is coming to power at a lucky time. Biden's signature policies are showing signs of success, but their dividends are not felt yet. They will be realized during Trump's tenure and he will be quick to take credit. Biden's policies started delivering for the working class in terms of jobs and higher pay growth at the bottom (a real contrast to what we have been used to since the 1980s). The CHIPS Act and the IRA are strengthening the industrial and technological base of the country. The substantial investment in infrastructure under Biden will further boost the US economy and manufacturing, and should contribute to wage and job growth. These divisions, too, will take time.
特朗普在一个幸运的时期上台。拜登的标志性政策正显示出成功的迹象，但其红利尚未显现。这些红利将在特朗普任期内实现，而他会很快邀功。拜登的政策已经开始为工人阶级带来就业机会和底层工资增长（这与自1980年代以来的情况形成了真正的对比）。《芯片法案》和《通货膨胀削减法案》正在加强国家的工业和技术基础。拜登政府在基础设施方面的大量投资将进一步促进美国经济和制造业发展，并应该有助于工资和就业增长。这些分歧也需要时间。
Trump can take credit for some of these, but his own policies will not help. Very high tariffs on China will not bring back jobs that have left the country, and he is unlikely to carry through with tariffs on allies (and they wouldn't help, and likely hinder economic growth). Biden's early policies fueled inflation. But thanks in large part to the Fed, inflation has come down and will likely stabilize at a low level. The memory of how prices are at the grocery store are so much higher relative to last year will fade. Trump will take credit for that too.
特朗普可能会为其中一些成果邀功，但他自己的政策不会有所帮助。对中国征收高关税不会使已经离开的工作岗位回流，他也不太可能对盟友实施关税（而且这些关税不会有帮助，反而可能阻碍经济增长）。拜登早期的政策助长了通货膨胀。但在很大程度上要感谢美联储，通货膨胀已经下降，并可能稳定在低水平。人们对杂货店价格比去年高得多的记忆将会淡化。特朗普也会为此邀功。
Yet, there isn't much in Trump's economic agenda that should help with inflation. Tariffs, if implemented, will increase prices in the short run, and if he pressures the Fed for more rate cuts to help his popularity, that could bring back high inflation. Trump's championing of cryptocurrency would probably allow more scams and encourage small investors to fall prey to unsustainable bubbles. I don't see anything good coming out of cryptocurrencies for the American workers or the American consumer.
然而，特朗普的经济议程中几乎没有什么能帮助控制通货膨胀。如果实施关税，短期内会推高物价，如果他为提高支持率而压迫美联储进一步降息，可能会带来高通胀。特朗普对加密货币的支持可能会导致更多诈骗，并诱使小投资者陷入不可持续的泡沫。我认为加密货币对美国工人或消费者都不会带来任何好处。
Trump's promised tax cuts will help corporations and the stock market. But even if this leads to more investment, a lot of that will go to the tech sector and automation, so it is unlikely to help workers. The bigger risks from Trump are mid-term rather than short-term. As such, they may not be detected during his presidency. But they are nonetheless real and present.
特朗普承诺的减税将有利于企业和股市。但即使这带来更多投资，很大一部分将流向科技领域和自动化，因此不太可能帮助工人。特朗普带来的更大风险是中期而非短期的。因此，这些风险可能在他任期内不会被察觉。但它们确实存在且真实。
First, AI. Biden's executive order on AI was just a starting point (I would say an insufficient starting point) for regulating this potentially transformative technology. If not regulated properly, AI will not just wreak havoc in many industries; it will also lead to pervasive manipulation of consumers and citizens (witness social media). Worse, its true potential as an information technology that can help workers will not be realized.
首先是人工智能。拜登关于人工智能的行政命令只是监管这项潜在变革性技术的起点（我认为这是一个不够充分的起点）。如果没有适当的监管，人工智能不仅会在许多行业造成混乱，还会导致对消费者和公民的普遍操控（看看社交媒体就知道了）。更糟糕的是，它作为能够帮助工人的信息技术的真正潜力将无法实现。
Trump is likely to remove all regulations and fuel the AI hype (supported by the most reckless investors and venture capitalists in Silicon Valley). We are likely to get a lot of bad AI, and not so much good, AI under Trump's approach to AI regulation. The biggest cost, in my opinion, will be that Trump's policy will support the large companies and venture capitalists in Silicon Valley, which will fuel more automation, bypassing the development of pro-worker technology. More automation will be costly for American workers.
特朗普可能会取消所有监管并助长人工智能炒作（得到硅谷最鲁莽的投资者和风险投资家的支持）。在特朗普的人工智能监管方式下，我们可能会得到很多糟糕的人工智能，而好的人工智能则很少。在我看来，最大的代价将是特朗普的政策会支持硅谷的大公司和风险投资家，这将推动更多自动化，绕过有利于工人的技术发展。更多的自动化将给美国工人带来代价。
Second, the big elephant in the room: US institutions. As I have repeatedly argued Trump is a threat to US institutions. That doesn't mean that US democracy will end within four years: though I would not completely rule that out, I don't think this is the most likely scenario. Instead, Trump will further weaken democratic norms, increase uncertainty and arbitrariness in policy, deepen polarization, and further undermine trust in institutions, including in courts and the Department of Justice, which he will try to weaponize.
其次是房间里的大象：美国机构。正如我反复论证的那样，特朗普对美国机构构成威胁。这并不意味着美国民主将在四年内终结：虽然我不会完全排除这种可能性，但我认为这不是最可能发生的情况。相反，特朗普将进一步削弱民主规范，增加政策的不确定性和随意性，加深两极分化，并进一步削弱对机构的信任，包括法院和司法部，他将试图将这些机构武器化。
This will not lead to economic collapse immediately. Transactional politics a la Trump may even encourage some investment by his favored companies in the short run. Trump may also give a boost to energy companies and oil drilling, again with long-term (but not short-term) costs. But in the medium run (say 10 years or so), weakening institutions, increasing uncertainty in policies and lower trust in courts will take its toll on investment and efficiency.
这不会立即导致经济崩溃。特朗普式的交易政治甚至可能在短期内鼓励他青睐的公司进行一些投资。特朗普也可能会推动能源公司和石油钻探，这同样会带来长期（而非短期）成本。但在中期（比如说10年左右），机构的削弱、政策的不确定性增加以及对法院信任度的降低将影响投资和效率。
Such institutional weaknesses are costly for any economy. They can be disastrous for the US economy that depends on innovation and complex, advanced technologies, which require greater contractual support and trust between parties on institutions. Lack of expert-led regulation may be particularly costly for key parts of the economy, such as healthcare, education and online business and consumer services. We may get a lot more snake oil and less high-quality products.
这种制度性弱点对任何经济体都是代价高昂的。对于依赖创新和复杂先进技术的美国经济来说，这可能是灾难性的，因为这些领域需要更大的合同支持和各方对机构的信任。缺乏专家主导的监管可能对经济的关键部分特别昂贵，比如医疗保健、教育和在线商业及消费者服务。我们可能会得到更多的虚假产品而不是高质量的产品。
All of this is bad news for workers. If the economy does not generate innovation and spearhead productivity growth, wages will not grow. If we do not invest more in pro-worker technologies, wages and jobs will be on the line.
这一切对工人来说都是坏消息。如果经济不能产生创新和引领生产力增长，工资就不会增长。如果我们不在有利于工人的技术上投入更多，工资和就业将处于危险之中。
Trump's presidency can be viewed as a test of the effects of institutions on the economy. If institutions matter, Trump's agenda will cost the US economy. The only catch is that these effects will take time to see.
特朗普的总统任期可以被视为制度对经济影响的一次检验。如果制度确实重要，特朗普的议程将让美国经济付出代价。唯一的问题是，这些影响需要时间才能显现。
