JCS Focus |《Demography》最新目录与摘要

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Commentary

Demograghy 61(4), 2024

Commentary on van Raalte et al.’s “The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note”

Carl P. Schmertmann

van Raalte et al. (2023) alerted demographers to the potential dangers of calculating cohort measures from the “diagonals” of gridded age–period (AP) data. In the case of cohort fertility, however, a minor change to the estimation procedure can mitigate the trend and cohort size biases that the authors identify. With an appropriate algorithm, researchers can estimate cohort fertility indices from AP data quite well.

Response to Carl Schmertmann Commentary—Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: Improvements and Risks

Alyson A. van Raalte; Ugofilippo Basellini; Carlo Giovanni Camarda; Marília Nepomuceno; Mikko Myrskylä

If there was ever any doubt that demographers love to discuss Lexis diagrams, this has been quashed by the many responses we have received by email, over social media, and in this journal to our article “The Dangers of Drawing Cohort Profiles From Period Data: A Research Note” (van Raalte et al. 2023). Our paper showed the biases that can result from “taking diagonals” of age–period (AP) grids, rather than cohort parallelograms, to construct cohort profiles. We showed how this widely used method (see references in our research note) can introduce a surprisingly large bias.

Research Notes

Historical Patterns in the Intergenerational Transmission of Lifespan and Longevity: A Research Note on U.S. Cohorts Born Between 1700 and 1900 

Saverio Minardi; Giulia Corti; Nicola Barban

This research note examines historical trends in lifespan inequality and the intergenerational transmission of lifespan and longevity in the United States over the eighteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth centuries. We contribute to the literature by expanding the estimates of the familial component beyond parent–child associations to include multigenerational and horizontal classes of relatives of different sexes. We also examine how lifespan inequality and the role of the family in lifespan and longevity changed over time. We address the challenge of studying extended family networks in historical times by leveraging recent online crowdsourced genealogical data. Results confirm the presence of a familial component for all classes of relatives considered and highlight a stronger association for horizontal than for vertical relationships. Despite decreasing lifespan inequality, we find no evidence of decreased familial lifespan stratification throughout history. If anything, the results suggest a strengthening of the parent–child association. Finally, the results contribute to the debate on the representativeness and usability of crowdsourced genealogical data by emphasizing the importance of sample selection based on the quality of the information collected.

New Evidence From Census 2020 on the Residential Segregation of Same-Sex Households: A Research Note

Amy Spring; Amin Ghaziani

The 2020 decennial census provides new insights into the demography of same-sex households and can shed light on ongoing debates in urban and gayborhood studies. Although the U.S. Census gives a vast undercount of the LGBTQ population, it is still the largest source of nationally representative data on same-sex households and is accessible over three time points (2000, 2010, 2020). In this research note, we use 2020 census data to examine the residential patterns of same-sex households down to the neighborhood level. By employing the index of dissimilarity, we present results for the 100 largest U.S. cities and 100 largest metropolitan areas that demonstrate moderate yet persistent segregation. In a continuation of prior trends, male same-sex households remain more segregated from different-sex households than do female same-sex households. We find moderate levels of within-group segregation by gender and marital status—representing new demographic trends. Finally, metropolitan areas have a higher dissimilarity index than cities, revealing greater levels of segregation when factoring in suburban areas. We discuss these trends in light of debates regarding the spatial organization of sexuality in residential contexts and outline future avenues for research utilizing recently released 2020 census data.

Decomposing the Drivers of Population Aging: A Research Note 

Tabitha Scott; Vladimir Canudas-Romo

Population aging is an important and increasingly relevant area of study for demographers. A growing body of research seeks to determine how long-term changes in births, mortality, and migration—the three drivers of any demographic process—have shaped the present aging situation. Using variable-r decomposition and cohort data, this research note presents a formula for the change in the old-age dependency ratio to determine the extent to which relative changes in births, as well as in mortality and migration rates, contribute to aging. This perspective provides a careful and in-depth picture of aging and contributes to the debate concerning whether changes in births or mortality have had the strongest effect on population aging. When applied to Australia, the United States, and several European populations, the decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio shows that aging occurred in all populations and that changes in both births and mortality contributed to this aging. Analysis of these populations demonstrates that although they differed regarding which of these factors contributed more, changes in births prevailed as the more significant factor. In nearly all populations, migration decreased the rate of population aging.

Research Notes

Epigenetic Aging Helps Explain Differential Resilience in Older Adults 

Eric T. Klopack; Eileen M. Crimmins

Past research suggests that resilience to health hazards increases with age, potentially because less resilient individuals die at earlier ages, leaving behind their more resilient peers. Using lifetime cigarette smoking as a model health hazard, we examined whether accelerated epigenetic aging (indicating differences in the speed of individuals’ underlying aging process) helps explain age-related resilience in a nationally representative sample of 3,783 older U.S. adults from the Health and Retirement Study. Results of mediation moderation analyses indicated that participants aged 86 or older showed a weaker association between lifetime cigarette smoking and mortality relative to participants aged 76–85 and a weaker association between smoking and multimorbidity relative to all younger cohorts. This moderation effect was mediated by a reduced association between smoking pack-years and epigenetic aging. This research helps identify subpopulations of particularly resilient individuals and identifies epigenetic aging as a potential mechanism explaining this process. Interventions in younger adults could utilize epigenetic aging estimates to identify the most vulnerable individuals and intervene before adverse health outcomes, such as chronic disease morbidity or mortality, manifest.

Intergenerational Clustering of Under-Five Mortality: A Cohort Perspective in Low- and Middle-Income Countries  

Emily Smith-Greenaway; Abigail Weitzman; Yingyi Lin; Katarina Huss

A burgeoning demographic literature documents the exceedingly high rates at which contemporary cohorts of women across the Global South experience the death of their children—even amid historic declines in child mortality. Yet, the patterning of maternal bereavement remains underinvestigated, as does the extent to which it replicates across generations of the same family. To that end, we ask: Are the surviving daughters of bereaved mothers more likely to eventually experience maternal bereavement? How does the intergenerational clustering of maternal bereavement vary across countries and cohorts? To answer these questions, we make use of Demographic and Health Survey Program data from 50 low- and middle-income countries, encompassing data on 1.05 million women and their mothers spanning three decadal birth cohorts. Descriptive results demonstrate that maternal bereavement is increasingly patterned intergenerationally across cohorts, with most women experiencing the same fate as their mothers. Multivariable hazard models further show that, on average, women whose mothers were maternally bereaved have significantly increased odds of losing a child themselves. In most countries, the association is stable across cohorts; however, in select countries, the risk associated with having a bereaved mother is shrinking among more recent birth cohorts.

The Effects of the 2021 Child Tax Credit on Housing Affordability and the Living Arrangements of Families With Low Incomes  

Natasha V. Pilkauskas; Katherine Michelmore; Nicole Kovski

Access to safe and stable housing is important for child and adult well-being. Yet many low-income households face severe challenges in maintaining stable housing. In this article, we examine the impact of the 2021 temporary expansion to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) on housing affordability and the living arrangements of families with low incomes. We employ a parameterized difference-in-differences method and leverage national data from a sample of parents who are receiving or recently received Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits (N = ∼20,500), many of whom became newly eligible for the CTC. We find that the monthly CTC reduced parents’ past-due rent/mortgages (both amounts and incidence) and their reports of potential moves due to difficulties affording rent/mortgages. The CTC increased the likelihood that parents reported a change in their living arrangements and reduced their household size, both effects driven by fewer mothers living with a partner (and not a reduction in doubling up). We find some differences in effects by race and ethnicity and earnings. Our findings illustrate that the monthly credit improved low-income parents’ ability to afford housing, gain residential independence from partners, and reduce the number of people residing in their household.

Who Divorces Whom: Unilateral Divorce Legislation and the Educational Structure of Marriage  

Geghetsik Afunts; Stepan Jurajda

The introduction of unilateral divorce legislation (UDL) starting in the late 1960s led to spikes in U.S. divorce rates. We ask whether making divorce easier affected the educational structure of marriage. Using marriage and divorce certificate data covering 1970–1988, we provide new evidence on the evolution of the educational structure of marriage inflows (newlyweds) and outflows (divorces). Next, we leverage the timing of UDL introduction across states to estimate its effects on both flows. We find that UDL affected the educational structure of divorce but not of new marriages: it made generally unstable hypogamous couples (women married to less educated partners) less likely to divorce and made homogamous couples more stable than hypergamous ones (women married to more educated partners).

Reconstructing Prospective Intergenerational Educational Mobility in 12 Countries 

Gordey Yastrebov; Vanessa Wittemann

In this article, we reconstruct prospective intergenerational educational mobility and explore fertility's role in this process for women born between 1925 and 1950 in 12 European countries. We do so by combining high-quality retrospective data (Generations and Gender Survey) and low-requirement prospective datasets using an inferential method developed and advanced in prior research. Our analysis shows that the negative educational fertility gradient partly compensates for the inequality in prospective mobility rates between lower and higher educated women and is most pronounced in high-inequality contexts. However, fertility's role is small and declining and thus does not account for much of the differences in mobility rates between countries. We also explore the relative importance of sibship size effects in mediating the effect of fertility gradient, finding it negligible. Finally, we explore the correspondence between prospective and retrospective estimates in the reconstruction of prospective mobility rates and suggest why the former, when available, must be preferred.

Ranking Age-at-Death Distributions Using Dominance: Robust Evaluation of United States Mortality Trends, 2006–2021  

Jawa Issa; Tom Van Ourti; Pieter van Baal; Owen O'Donnell

Diverging mortality trends at different ages motivate the monitoring of lifespan inequality alongside life expectancy. Conclusions are ambiguous when life expectancy and lifespan inequality move in the same direction or when inequality measures display inconsistent trends. We propose using nonparametric dominance analysis to obtain a robust ranking of age-at-death distributions. Application to U.S. period life tables for 2006–2021 reveals that, until 2014, more recent years generally dominate earlier years, implying improvement if longer lifespans that are less unequally distributed are considered better. Improvements were more pronounced for non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic individuals than for non-Hispanic White individuals. Since 2014, for all subpopulations—particularly Hispanics—earlier years often dominate more recent years, indicating worsening age-at-death distributions if shorter and more unequal lifespans are considered worse. Dramatic deterioration of the distributions in 2020–2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic is most evident for Hispanic individuals.

The Role of Single Motherhood in America's High Child Poverty 

David Brady; Regina S. Baker; Ryan Finnigan

Many claim a high prevalence of single motherhood plays a significant role in America's high child poverty. Using the Luxembourg Income Study, we compare the “prevalences and penalties” for child poverty across 30 rich democracies and within the United States over time (1979–2019). Several descriptive patterns contradict the importance of single motherhood. The U.S. prevalence of single motherhood is cross-nationally moderate and typical and is historically stable. Also, child poverty and the prevalence of single motherhood have trended in opposite directions in recent decades in the United States. More important than the prevalence of single motherhood, the United States stands out for having the highest penalty across 30 rich democracies. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that reducing single motherhood would not substantially reduce child poverty. Even if there was zero single motherhood, (1) the United States would not change from having the fourth-highest child poverty rate, (2) the 41-year trend in child poverty would be very similar, and (3) the extreme racial inequalities in child poverty would not decline. Rather than the prevalence of single motherhood, the high penalty for single motherhood and extremely high Black and Latino child poverty rates, which exist regardless of single motherhood, are far more important to America's high child poverty.

Early-Life Disease Exposure and Its Heterogeneous Effects on Mortality Throughout Life: Sweden, 1905–2016  

Louise Cormack; Volha Lazuka; Luciana Quaranta

Exposure to infectious diseases in early life has been linked to increased mortality risk in later life in high-disease settings, such as eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Europe. Less is known about the long-term effects of early-life disease exposure in milder disease environments. This study estimates heterogeneous effects from disease exposure in infancy on later-life mortality in twentieth-century Sweden, by socioeconomic status at birth and sex. Using historical population data for southern Sweden, we study 11,515 individuals who were born in 1905–1929 from age 1 until age 85. We measure exposure to disease using the local post–early neonatal mortality rate in the first 12 months after birth and apply flexible parametric survival models. For females, we find a negative effect on life expectancy (scarring) at ages 1–85 following high disease exposure in infancy, particularly for those born to unskilled workers. For males, we find no negative effect on later-life survival, likely because stronger mortality selection in infancy outweighs scarring. Thus, even as the incidence of infectious diseases declined at the start of the twentieth century, early-life disease exposure generated long-lasting negative but heterogeneous population health effects.

Adverse Infant Health Outcomes Increased After the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Among Non-White U.S.-born and Foreign-born Mothers  

Paola D. Langer; Caitlin Patler; Erin R. Hamilton

Macro-level events such as elections can improve or harm population health across existing axes of stratification through policy changes and signals of inclusion or threat. This study investigates whether rates of, and disparities in, adverse birth outcomes between racialized and nativity groups changed after Donald Trump's November 2016 election, a period characterized by increases in xenophobic and racist messages, policies, and actions in the United States. Using data from 15,568,710 U.S. births between November 2012 and November 2018, we find that adverse birth outcomes increased after Trump's election among U.S.- and foreign-born mothers racialized as Black, Hispanic, and Asian and Pacific Islander (API), compared with the period encompassing the two Obama presidencies. Results for Whites suggest no change or a slight decrease in adverse outcomes following Trump's election, yet this finding was not robust to checks for seasonality. Black–White, Hispanic–White, and API–White disparities in adverse birth outcomes widened among both U.S.- and foreign-born mothers after Trump's election. Our findings suggest that Trump's election was a racist and xenophobic macro-level political event that undermined the health of infants born to non-White mothers in the United States.

Negotiating Work and Family Spheres: The Dyadic Effects of Flexible Work Arrangements on Fertility Among Dual-Earner Heterosexual Couples  

Senhu Wang; Jolene Tan

Academics and policymakers have suggested making flexible work arrangements (FWAs) the default in workplaces to promote a family-friendly workplace culture conducive to having and raising children. However, systematic research investigating how FWAs, as a long-term approach to negotiating work–family spheres, are related to fertility among dual-earner heterosexual couples is limited. Drawing on the linked-lives perspective, we theorize the relationship between FWAs and fertility among couples and potential variation depending on the interplay of both spouses’ work and family characteristics. We test our hypotheses using longitudinal couple-level dyadic data in the United Kingdom (2010–2022). We find that although FWA availability alone is unrelated to fertility, wives’ (not husbands’) FWA use is significantly associated with a higher probability of experiencing a first birth. Moreover, the effect of wives’ FWA use is particularly pronounced when both spouses work in professional and managerial occupations and when husbands contribute a larger proportion of income and at least equal housework. This study reveals a gendered effect of FWAs on fertility across work–family arrangements, deepening our understanding of couple-level dynamics in the fertility process.

《中国社会学学刊》（The Journal of Chinese Sociology）于2014年10月由中国社会科学院社会学研究所创办。作为中国大陆第一本英文社会学学术期刊，JCS致力于为中国社会学者与国外同行的学术交流和合作打造国际一流的学术平台。JCS由全球最大科技期刊出版集团施普林格·自然(Springer Nature)出版发行，由国内外顶尖社会学家组成强大编委会队伍，采用双向匿名评审方式和“开放获取”(open access)出版模式。JCS已于2021年5月被ESCI收录。2022年，JCS的CiteScore分值为2.0（Q2），在社科类别的262种期刊中排名第94位，位列同类期刊前36%。2023年，JCS在科睿唯安发布的2023年度《期刊引证报告》（JCR）中首次获得影响因子并达到1.5（Q3）。