【数字印尼】Indonesia Market Monthly Report 印度尼西亚市场月报
民生
2025-01-11 10:22
印度尼西亚
Indonesia Market Monthly Report 一、政经动态 Political and economic trends（三）主要经济指标 Main economic indicators二、主要行业动态 Major industry dynamics三、金融市场动态 Financial market dynamics（一）印尼盾汇率走势 Indonesian rupiah exchange rate trend（二）市场资金利率行情回顾 Review of market capital interest rates（三）基准利率及外汇储备情况 Benchmark interest rates and foreign exchange reserves![]()
一、政经动态 Political and economic trends•President Prabowo: 12% VAT Imposed Only on Luxury Goods, Services.The Government has decided that the 1 percent increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate from 11 percent to 12 percent will be imposed specifically on luxury goods and services. Apart from those goods and services, the VAT rate on other goods and services remains in accordance with the rate that has been in effect since 2022, which is 11 percent.The decision to increase the VAT rate for luxury goods and services was stated first-hand by President Prabowo Subianto in his press statement at the Office of the Ministry of Finance in Jakarta, Tuesday (12/31).“For example, private jets are classified as luxury goods that are utilized or used by the upper-class community. Other examples are cruise ships, motor yachts, and very luxurious houses whose value is above those belonging to the middle-class community,” said the President.Furthermore, the President emphasized that goods and services that constitute basic necessities of the community are still subject to a 0 percent VAT rate.•普拉博沃·苏比安托总统：仅对奢侈品和服务征收12%的增值税。政府决定将增值税从11%提高到12%，1%的增长率仅针对奢侈品和服务。除这些商品和服务外，其他商品和服务的增值税率仍按照自2022年以来的生效率的税，即11%。总统在雅加达财政部的新闻声明中亲自表示，决定提高奢侈品和服务增值税率。总统说：“例如，私人飞机被归类为上层社会使用的奢侈品。其他例子包括游艇、摩托游艇和非常豪华的房子，它们的价值超过了中产阶级的财产。”此外，总统强调，构成社区基本需求的商品和服务仍适用0%的增值税税率。•President Prabowo Affirms Education and Health as Top Priorities in 2025 State Budget.President Prabowo Subianto emphasized the government's commitment to making education and health the main priorities in the 2025 budget allocation. This was conveyed by the President in his remarks at the digital Submission of the Budget Implementation List (DIPA) and the Transfer Allocation Book to Regions (TKD), as well as the launch of the Electronic Catalog version 6.0, at the State Palace, Jakarta, on Tuesday, December 10, 2024."Indonesia's largest allocation is education. Thus, we place education as a priority and we believe that education and health services are the real way out of poverty,"•普拉博沃·苏比安托总统确认教育和健康是2025年国家预算的优先事项。总统强调，政府致力于将教育和健康作为2025年预算分配的主要优先事项。这是总统在2024年12月10日在雅加达国家宫殿举行的预算实施清单（DIPA）和地区（TKD）转移分配手册的数字提交以及电子目录版本6.0的启动仪式上发表的讲话中提到的。"印尼最大的预算分配是教育。因此，我们将教育作为优先考虑的事项，我们相信教育和健康服务是摆脱贫困的真正途径，"。•President Prabowo Subianto emphasized that financial industry players are at the forefront of maintaining the nation's sovereignty and independence. The President reminded financial industry players to carry out their mandate wisely, responsibly, and with integrity to protect the interests of the Indonesian people.The affirmation was conveyed by President Prabowo in his remarks at the 2024 Bank Indonesia Annual Meeting at the Bank Indonesia Office Complex, Jakarta, on Friday, November 29, 2024.The Head of State said that the trust given to the financial sector is a great responsibility because it is a very vital part of the nation's sovereignty. The President also quoted a political figure who said that destroying a country can start by destroying its financial system.•普拉博沃·苏比安托总统强调，金融行业参与者是维护国家主权和独立的前沿。总统提醒金融行业参与者要明智地执行他们的任务，以负责任和诚信的方式保护印尼人民的利益。这一确认是总统在2024年11月29日在雅加达印尼银行办公室大楼举行的2024年印尼央行年度会议上发表的讲话中提到的。国家元首表示，对金融行业的信任是一种巨大的责任，因为金融行业是国家主权的重要组成部分。总统还引用了一位政治人物的话，称摧毁一个国家可以始于摧毁其金融系统。• Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 4.95% annually in the third quarter ,slightly below market expectation and compared with 5.05% growth in the second quarter。印度尼西亚第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）增长4.95%，略低于市场预期，与第二季度的5.05%增长相比也较低。• Indonesia's domestic economy remains solid on the back of domestic demand. Positive investment growth is projected in the fourth quarter of 2024, underpinned by the completion of various national strategic projects (PSN) and private investment in response to government incentive support. Household consumption is projected to maintain growth, supported by solid consumer confidence and the positive impact of local elections contested in various regions. Government consumption is increasing in line with higher spending activity towards the end of the year. Meanwhile, non-oil and gas exports are expected to moderate as a corollary of the sluggish global economy. By sector, growth is primarily supported by the manufacturing industry, construction, as well as wholesale and retail trade. Overall, economic growth in 2024 is projected in the 4.7-5.5% range, before accelerating to 4.8-5.6% in 2025. 印尼国内经济在强劲的国内需求支持下依然稳固。预计2024年第四季度将出现正的投资增长，这得益于各项国家战略项目（PSN）的完成以及私人投资对政府激励支持的回应。预计家庭消费将保持增长，这得益于消费者信心的稳固以及各地区竞选的选举带来的积极影响。与此同时，政府消费也在年底前增加。由于全球经济的不景气，非石油和天然气出口预计将放缓。从行业来看，增长主要由制造业、建筑以及批发和零售贸易所支撑。总体而言，预计2024年的经济增长在4.7-5.5%之间，然后在2025年加速至4.8-5.6%。（三）主要经济指标 Main economic indicators二、主要行业动态 Major industry dynamics •国有企业部长（BUMN）艾立克·托希尔（Erick Thohir）表示，印尼已准备好建立黄金银行或金条银行，特别是在自己能够生产的金条之后。艾立克透露，这项准备也得到PT Antam和自由港（PT Freeport Indonesia）合作并支持在印尼加工金条。•随着未来五年全国经济增长目标为8%，工业部定下指标，2025年化学、制药和纺织工业(IKFT)能增长6.59%。根据工业部数据，2018年至2024年，化学、制药和纺织工业平均增长约为2.5%，2019年记录最高增长为6.1%。在过去两年，化学、制药和纺织工业对国内生产总值(GDP)贡献达2.8%。•印尼纤维和长丝生产商协会(APSyFI)报告，在过去两年内，60家纺织公司被迫关闭，导致裁员多达25万人。•投资和下游部长/投资统筹机构（BKPM）主任罗桑·罗斯拉尼（Rosan Roeslani）评估，中国对印尼的新投资潜力仍然很高。周五（20/12），他在中国北京告诉安塔拉社，“中国是最大的FDI（外国直接投资）国家之一。我们看到未来潜力依然非凡。”罗桑此次访问该国是为了促进对印尼的投资。他在五天内已经走访了六个城市。他表示，此次访问期间中国已做出总额达74亿美元（约合120.7万亿盾）的投资承诺。他补充说，“这是一项新的承诺，”该承诺包括对至少四个生产领域的投资：多晶硅、玻璃纤维、PET树脂和电动汽车(EV)。•联合国贸易和发展会议（(简称贸发会议）预计，2025年印尼的经济增长率将达到5.2%。这一预测与政府在2025年国家预算中设定的经济增长目标一致。根据12月26日《贸易与发展报告》，贸发会议预计，2025年印尼经济将保持强劲增长，较低的利率前景和改善的外部环境将推动增长率达到5.2%。基础设施支出和社会援助的增加将是经济增长的推动力。增加基础设施计划和社会援助计划的财政支出有助于支持增长。•零售企业，尤其是在购物中心领域的企业，充满担忧展望2025年，预计明年零售业将面临严峻的挑战。日前，印尼购物中心管理协会 (APPBI) 主席 Alphonzus Widjaja 阐明，引发该担忧的主要因素之一是增值税 (PPN) 增至12%，该税率将于2025年1月1日起生效。该政策不仅影响奢侈品，该增长也有可能影响整个民众的购买力，包括中小微型企业的产品在内。他也强调，直至2024年第四季度，民众购买力尚未完全恢复，在这种情况之下，增加增值税将为零售业带来进一步压力。三、金融市场动态 Financial market dynamics（一）印尼盾汇率走势 Indonesian rupiah exchange rate trend In December, the Indonesian Rupiah depreciated by 1.79% against the U.S. Dollar, with the exchange rate shifting from a range of 15,848 to 16,132 IDR per USD. This depreciation occurred as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish interest cut of 25 basis points to the 4.25% to 4.5% range. Additionally, the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s policies to impose tariff on import goods may slow economic growth and raise unemployment and ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East further contributed to the volatility in the global markets.The Indonesian Rupiah fell to its four-months low to the level 16,313 due to the impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Indonesia’s central bank stood pat at its December policy meeting, continuing to hold its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate at 6% aiming to support the country’s economic growth, maintain the rupiah’s stability and keep inflation within the 1.5% to 3.5% target range in 2024 and next year. 2024年12月，印尼盾兑美元贬值了1.79%，汇率在15,848至16,132区间内波动。此次贬值发生在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将美联储利率削减25个基点至4.25%至4.5%的鹰派立场决定后。此外，美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普对进口商品征收关税的政策可能会减缓经济增长，提高失业率，而中东地区的地缘政治冲突进一步加剧了全球市场的波动性。 由于美国联邦储备政策前景的影响，印尼盾跌至四个月来的最低水平，达到16,313。印尼央行在2024年12月的政策会议上继续将基准利率维持在6%，以支持经济增长，保持印尼盾的稳定，并努力将2024年和明年的通胀率保持在1.5%至3.5%的目标范围内。（二）市场资金利率行情回顾 Review of market capital interest ratesThe BI Board of Governors Meeting agreed on 17-18th December 2024 to hold the BI-Rate at 6.00%, while also maintaining the Deposit Facility (DF) rate and Lending Facility (LF) rate at 5.25% and 6.75%, respectively. The decision is consistent with the direction of monetary policy to control inflation in 2024 and 2025 within the 2.5 ±1% target corridor, while supporting sustainable economic growth. Foreign Investors Record Buying Positions Towards End of 2024. Stock trading data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 23-27 December 2024 was mostly in the positive zone. The highest increase occurred in the average daily transaction volume of the Exchange for a week of 27.15% to 24.40 billion shares from 19.19 billion shares in the previous week. The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) this week also increased by 0.75% to 7,036.571 from 6,983.865 last week. The increase was also experienced by the Exchange's market capitalization by 0.60% to IDR12,264 trillion from IDR12,191 trillion in the previous week. However, the average daily transaction frequency of the Exchange changed by 10.48% to 970 thousand transactions from 1.08 million transactions last week. During the week, the average daily transaction value of the Exchange changed by 13.13% to Rp10.64 trillion from Rp12.25 trillion in the previous week. Foreign investors today recorded a net purchase value of Rp759.38 billion and foreign investors recorded a net purchase value of Rp15.97 trillion throughout 2024. 印尼央行董事会（RDG）12月17日至18日会议的决定是维持基准利率为6%，保持存款指导利率为5.25%，贷款指导利率为6.75%。该决定与控制2024年和2025年通货膨胀在2.5 ±1%的目标范围内，同时支持可持续经济增长的货币政策方向一致。 外国投资者在2024年底积极买入。2024年12月23日至27日，印尼券交易所（IDX）的交易数据显示，大部分时间都在积极区域。最高增长发生在交易所的平均每日交易量，一周增长27.15%，达到244亿股，而前一周为191.9亿股。本周，综合股票价格指数（IHSG）也上涨了0.75%，达到7036.571点，而上周为6983.865点。交易所的市场资本化也增长了0.60%，达到12264万亿印尼盾，而前一周为12191万亿印尼盾。然而，交易所的平均每日交易频率本周变化了10.48%，从上周的108万笔交易降至97万笔交易。在本周，交易所的平均每日交易价值变化了13.13%，从上周的1225亿印尼盾降至1064亿印尼盾。今天，外国投资者净买入额为7593.8亿印尼盾，整个2024年，外国投资者净买入额为15.97万亿印尼盾。Indonesia
Goverment Bond Interest Yield
（三）基准利率及外汇储备情况 Benchmark interest rates and foreign exchange reserves BI maintain the BI-Rate at 6%。 Indonesia's foreign reserves rose to $155.7b in December from $150.2b in November, according to Bank Indonesia according to Bank Indonesia. The Reserves were equal tp 6.7 months of imports, above international standards and adequate to support Indonesia’s external resilience and maintain macroeconomic and financial stability 。 根据央行数据，印度尼西亚的外汇储备从11月份的1502 亿美元下降至11月份的1557亿美元。印尼央行12月初声明，12月底的外汇储备可以覆盖 6.7个月进口量，在国际标准之上，足以支持外部弹性并保持宏观经济的稳定。本文件由工银印尼发出，以上内容建立在本机构认为可靠信息的基础上，但本机构并不表示对此文件的准确或完整负责。如以上数据有所更改，本机构恕不另行通知。上述数据仅供参考，本机构并非借此诱导任何投资行为或预期未来利率／价格走势。本机构或本机构的任何关联机构可能拥有以上投资产品。本文件并不构成本机构作为上述交易及任何其他投资交易的顾问或令本机构负上任何信托责任。本机构不对文件或其内容运用负上任何法律责任。投资者在决定进行任何交易之前，应充分了解交易的详情和细则，并进行独立的分析，以评估该交易是否切合自身的条件和目标。我们也建议投资者作出独立的调查以达上述的目的。本机构不保证或指示此投资产品将出现任何的投资结果。ICBC Indonesia applies reasonable endeavours to provide accurate and complete information from reliable sources. However, ICBC makes no warranty or representation, express or implied, as to whether information provided in ICBC's verbal and/or written communications with its customers (including but not limited to publications, documents, flyers, brochures, website and email) is accurate, complete or up-to-date. Before making any investment decision, investors should obtain a copy of the relevant product disclosure statements (PDS) or information memorandums, and consider information carefully, and with your individual circumstances in mind.
