近年来，加拿大的选民对现任政府的不满情绪日益高涨。这种反现任情绪，类似于英国和法国选民的情绪，在加拿大显得尤为明显。
In recent years, voters in Canada have become increasingly dissatisfied with the incumbent government. This anti-incumbent sentiment, similar to that of voters in the United Kingdom and France, appears to be particularly pronounced in Canada.
人们对现状感到愤怒，渴望变革。从多伦多圣保罗的补选结果以及一系列民调预测来看，2025年10月的联邦大选几乎注定会迎来新的执政党。
People are angry about the status quo and hungry for change. Judging by the results of the by-election in Toronto's St. Paul's and a series of polling projections, the October 2025 federal election is almost destined to usher in a new governing party.
那么，保守党领袖皮埃尔·波利耶夫能为加拿大带来怎样的改变？他能否兑现他的承诺，实现选民们的期待？这不仅仅是个简单的问题。
So what kind of change can Conservative Leader Pierre Poliev bring to Canada? Can he deliver on his promises and fulfill the expectations of his constituents? It's more than a simple question.
首先，我们需要明确，波利耶夫如果上台，他面对的将是一个与前任截然不同的世界。2025年，美国的政治局势将对加拿大产生深远影响。拜登总统可能不会连任，而副总统卡马拉·哈里斯或前总统唐纳德·特朗普将成为新的总统候选人。关于哈里斯竞选的更多信息，可阅读：拜登宣布退选！美国有望迎来首位黑人女总统？说好的“除非被火车撞，否则绝不放弃”呢？
First, we need to be clear that Poliev, if he comes to power, will be facing a very different world than his predecessor.In 2025, the political situation in the United States will have a profound impact on Canada. President Biden may not be re-elected and either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will be the new presidential candidate.
如果特朗普再次当选，这将是那些推崇多极世界秩序的非正式国际联盟的一次胜利，而哈里斯的胜出则可能加剧美国的种族紧张局势和政治分裂。在这两种情况下，加拿大不可避免地会受到波及。
If Trump is re-elected, it will be a victory for the informal international coalition of those pushing for a multipolar world order, while a Harris win could exacerbate racial tensions and political divisions in the United States. In both cases, Canada would inevitably suffer the ripple effects.
在这种复杂的国际环境中，保守党是否真的能比自由党更好地应对这些挑战？他们是否有能力在风云变幻的国际舞台上为加拿大争取到更多的利益？这些都是值得深思的问题。
In this complex international environment, can the Conservatives really cope with these challenges better than the Liberals? Are they capable of fighting for Canada's interests in the stormy international arena? These are all questions worth pondering.
再看国内，经济无疑是最大的挑战之一。与九年前相比，普通加拿大人的经济状况更加艰难。尽管全球都在疫情后经历了经济动荡，但美国等国家的经济复苏显著，而加拿大却未能跟上这种节奏。国家赤字庞大，财政状况堪忧，这是保守党必须解决的首要问题。
Looking closer to home, the economy is undoubtedly one of the biggest challenges. The average Canadian is in a much more difficult economic situation than they were nine years ago. While the world has experienced economic turmoil in the aftermath of the epidemic, countries such as the United States have seen significant economic recovery, while Canada has not been able to keep up with this pace. The country's large deficit and worrisome fiscal situation are at the top of the list of issues that the Conservatives must address.
牛津研究院对于加拿大GDP增长率的展望
波利耶夫强调，增加税收不是解决赤字的办法，扩展经济基础才是出路。然而，削减开支虽然可以短期内缓解财政压力，却可能会拖累经济增长。保守党要在短时间内实现经济复苏，绝非易事。
Poliev emphasized that increasing taxes is not a solution to the deficit and that expanding the economic base is the way forward. However, cutting spending, although it can ease the financial pressure in the short term, may drag down economic growth. It is by no means easy for the Conservative Party to realize economic recovery in a short period of time.
自由党的移民政策已经引起了加拿大人的严重不满
保守党在移民政策上的立场或许更能得到选民的支持。自由党政府的移民政策被认为偏离了正轨，倾向于引进廉价劳动力，导致社会福利开支激增，却未能有效促进经济增长。
The Conservative Party's stance on immigration policy may be better supported by voters. The Liberal government's immigration policy is considered to be off-track, favoring the importation of cheap labor and leading to a surge in social welfare spending, while failing to effectively promote economic growth.
波利耶夫的团队可以通过恢复基于需求和技能的移民政策，迅速赢得选民的信任。然而，这样的政策调整是否能真正解决根本问题，仍需拭目以待。
Poliev's team could quickly win the trust of voters by restoring a needs- and skills-based immigration policy. However, it remains to be seen whether such policy adjustments will actually solve the underlying problems.
最棘手的问题莫过于修复加拿大的社会价值观。近年来，加拿大社会因外来干涉和身份政治而分裂，反以色列抗议活动、反犹主义上升、外国机构在加拿大境内的活动，以及某些族裔社区的倒退政治议程，这些都对社会和政治稳定构成了巨大挑战。
There is no thornier issue than that of repairing Canada's social values. In recent years, Canadian society has been divided by foreign interference and identity politics, and anti-Israel protests, rising anti-Semitism, the activities of foreign agencies on Canadian soil, and the regressive political agendas of certain ethnic communities have posed great challenges to social and political stability.
保守党能否在这方面取得突破，重建社会共识，是其执政能力的重大考验。DEI（多样性、公平与包容）政策在某种程度上导致了社会的隔阂，波利耶夫需要找到平衡点，既尊重多样性，又维护社会的整体团结。
Whether the Conservatives can make a breakthrough in this area and rebuild social consensus is a major test of their ability to govern.The DEI (Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) policy has led to some degree to social divisions, and Poliev will need to find a balance between respecting diversity and preserving the overall unity of society.
2021年加拿大联邦大选选举结果图
即便保守党赢得大选，他们还需面临另一个严峻的考验——如何在大多伦多地区和温哥华赢得足够多的选票。没有这两个关键区域的支持，保守党将难以在全国范围内保持执政地位。同时，魁北克的魁人政团也在伺机而动，准备与保守党一较高下。
Even if the Conservatives win the election, they will have to face another tough test - how to win enough votes in the Greater Toronto Area and Vancouver. Without support in these two key regions, the Conservatives will struggle to stay in power nationally. Meanwhile, Quebec's Québécois caucus is also waiting for an opportunity to take on the Conservatives.
保守党能否真正拯救加拿大，这不仅取决于他们的政策和领导能力，还取决于他们能否赢得选民的信任。对于加拿大未来的政治格局，我们或许需要保持谨慎乐观的态度，既期待改变，又不宜寄予过高的期望。
Whether the Conservatives can truly save Canada depends not only on their policies and leadership, but also on their ability to win the trust of voters. We may need to remain cautiously optimistic about Canada's future political landscape, looking for change but not expecting too much.
无论是作为一名加拿大公民还是临时居民，我们当然应该对未来的变化抱有一定的期待。多年来，自由党的政策在某些方面确实没有达到预期，特别是在经济复苏和移民政策上。
Whether as a Canadian citizen or a temporary resident, we should certainly have some expectations for change in the future. It is true that over the years, Liberal policies have fallen short of expectations in some areas, particularly in economic recovery and immigration policy.
然而，任何变革都需要时间和耐心。波利耶夫和他的团队能否在短时间内实现他们的承诺，仍需时间来检验。
However, any change requires time and patience. Whether Poliev and his team can deliver on their promises in a short period of time remains to be seen.
也许保守党需要在竞选过程中展现出更多的诚意和具体的计划，让选民看到他们的决心和能力。此外，如何在国际复杂局势中保护加拿大的利益，也是他们需要认真考虑的问题。
Perhaps the Conservative Party needs to show more sincerity and concrete plans during the election campaign so that voters can see their determination and ability. In addition, how to protect Canada's interests in a complex international situation is also an issue they need to seriously consider.
总之，加拿大正站在一个关键的十字路口。保守党能否带领国家走出困境，重振经济，修复社会裂痕，仍需时间来验证。让我们拭目以待，看波利耶夫及其团队如何应对这一系列挑战。
In short, Canada is standing at a critical crossroads. Whether the Conservatives can lead the country out of the doldrums, revitalize the economy and repair the social rift still needs time to prove. Let's wait and see how Poliev and his team respond to this set of challenges.
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