路人路过多伦多公寓
加拿大的房价，应该是加拿大最近几年最容易引起争议的话题。自2018年开始，加拿大的房市开始进入稳步上涨的通道中，在疫情期间，随着加拿大央行的不断大幅度降息，加拿大的房价正式开始疯涨模式，涨幅让持有房产的人兴奋的睡不着觉，让还未买房的人也担忧的睡不着觉。
Canada's housing prices should be the most controversial topic in Canada in the last few years. Since the beginning of 2018, Canada's housing market has begun to enter a steady rise in the channel, during the Covid, with the Bank of Canada's continuous and substantial interest rate cuts, Canada's housing prices have officially begun to rise in a crazy mode, the rate of increase so that the people who hold the property can not sleep with excitement, and those who have not yet purchased a home are also worried about the sleep.
不过，在最近一两年的高利率环境下，加拿大多伦多的房市已经领先于其他城市开始发生实质性的改变。根据CIBC和Urbanation的最新报告，2024年上半年，多达82%的新完工多伦多公寓持有者在还贷后处于负现金流状态。相比2020年仅40%的比例，这一数据直接翻倍，令人震惊。
However, in the high interest rate environment of the last year or two, the housing market in Toronto, Canada has started to change substantially ahead of other cities. According to a recent report by CIBC and Urbanation, as many as 82% of newly completed Toronto condo holders are in a negative cash flow position after paying off their mortgage in the first half of 2024. That's a shocking straight-up doubling of that figure compared to just 40% in 2020.
多伦多市中心一处新的公寓建筑工地。
这背后的原因是什么？又会对整个加拿大房市产生怎样的影响呢？
What is the reason behind this? And how will it affect the entire Canadian housing market?
公寓持有者开始面临亏损
Condo Holders Start Facing Losses
租金市场的变化
Changes in the rental market
加拿大房市的历史回顾
A Historical Review of the Canadian Housing Market
疫情期间利率的影响
Impact of interest rates during the Covid
未来的利率走势
Future interest rate trends
你还看好加拿大房市吗？
Are you still bullish on the Canadian housing market?
首先，我们需要了解的是，这些投资者的亏损并非偶然，而是多种因素共同作用的结果。2023年购入公寓的投资者平均每月亏损597加元，而2022年购房者的亏损仅为223加元。这一差距凸显了近年来房价上涨和利率上升对投资者的巨大压力。
The first thing we need to understand is that these investor losses are not an accident, but rather the result of a combination of factors. investors who purchased condos in 2023 lost an average of C$597 per month, compared to just C$223 for homebuyers in 2022. This disparity underscores the enormous pressure that rising home prices and interest rates have put on investors in recent years.
这种情况不仅影响了个人投资者的财务状况，也对整个市场产生了连锁反应。由于高成本和负现金流，许多投资者不得不重新评估他们的投资策略。
This situation not only affected the financial situation of individual investors, but also had a knock-on effect on the market as a whole. Many investors have had to re-evaluate their investment strategies due to high costs and negative cash flow.
多伦多公寓一年以来的价格、成交量、库存趋势
新公寓销售已经降至27年来的最低点，这不仅影响了市场的流动性，也给未来的住房供应带来了巨大风险。Urbanation的报告指出，投资者是多伦多新住房开发的最大动力来源，如果他们的财务状况持续恶化，将会严重影响未来的住房供应。
New condo sales have fallen to a 27-year low, which not only affects the liquidity of the market, but also poses a significant risk to the future supply of housing.Urbanation's report notes that investors are the largest source of incentives for new housing development in Toronto, and that if their financial situation continues to deteriorate, it will have a serious impact on the future supply of housing.
然而，尽管投资者面临巨大压力，公寓价格并未出现大幅下跌。数据表明，未售出单位的价格在过去一年仅下降了2.6%，这意味着投资者并没有急于抛售手中的房产。或许他们还在等待市场回暖的机会，或者希望通过租金收入来弥补亏损。
However, despite the enormous pressure on investors, apartment prices have not fallen dramatically. Figures show that the prices of unsold units have fallen by only 2.6% over the past year, meaning that investors are in no hurry to sell off their holdings. Perhaps they are still waiting for the market to pick up, or hoping to make up for losses through rental income.
说到租金市场，它也经历了不小的波动。根据数据，多伦多的平均公寓租金在2024年第二季度出现了三年来的首次下降，平均下降了1.2%。虽然这对租房者来说是个好消息。
When it comes to the rental market, it has experienced its fair share of volatility. According to the data, average apartment rents in Toronto declined for the first time in three years in the second quarter of 2024, falling by an average of 1.2%. While this is good news for renters.
尽管租金出现短暂下降，但交易量在上半年却在上升，2024年第二季度，多伦多的公寓租赁交易量达到了创纪录的16,169笔，同比增长了29%。
Despite a brief decline in rents, transaction volumes were on the rise in the first half of the year, with a record 16,169 condo rental transactions in Toronto in the second quarter of 2024, an increase of 29% year-over-year.
高需求通常会对价格产生上行压力，但由于上市的公寓数量激增，租金反而出现了下降。这种供需失衡现象在租赁市场中并不常见，也再次凸显了当前市场的复杂性。
High demand would normally put upward pressure on prices, but instead rents have declined as the number of condos coming on the market has surged. This imbalance between supply and demand is not common in the rental market and again highlights the complexity of the current market.
不过根据最新动态，六月多伦多Downtown市中心Condo成交量开始表现疲弱，成交量年同比萎缩三成，成交价也下跌5%。
However, according to the latest developments, June Downtown Toronto Condo transactions began to show weakness, the number of transactions year-on-year contraction of 30%, the transaction price also fell by 5%.
有投资客认为这种短暂的价格和交易量的下跌并不能改变房地产需求旺盛的基本面。实际上，价格下降只是公寓完工数量的暂时增加背景下一个短暂现象。
Some investors believe that this short-lived drop in prices and transaction volumes does not change the fundamentals of strong demand for real estate. In fact, the drop in prices is only a short-lived phenomenon against the backdrop of a temporary increase in the number of apartment completions.
不过旺盛的基本面真的存在吗？这一切也许都取决于加拿大未来的移民政策能够带来多少新移民，不是吗？
But do the exuberant fundamentals really exist? It all probably depends on how many newcomers Canada's future immigration policies can bring in, doesn't it?
加拿大的房市，现在有点让人猜不透了...
The Canadian housing market is a bit of a guessing game right now...
要更加深入理解加拿大的房地产，不妨一起回顾加拿大房市的历史。从1980年代的高通胀和高失业率，到2000年代的稳定增长，再到最近的疫情大流行，加拿大房市一直在波动中前行。
For a more in-depth understanding of Canadian real estate, it's worth taking a look at the history of the Canadian housing market. From high inflation and unemployment in the 1980s, to steady growth in the 2000s, to the recent pandemic, Canada's housing market has moved through fluctuations.
1980年代，加拿大经历了一次严重的经济危机。通胀率和失业率都达到了历史高点，银行利率一度飙升至22.75%。这种极端的经济环境导致房价和房贷成本居高不下，许多人不得不放弃购房计划。然而，随着加拿大央行在1990年代初采取措施控制通胀，房价也逐渐回落。
In the 1980s, Canada experienced a severe economic crisis. Inflation and unemployment were at an all-time high, and bank interest rates soared to 22.75% at one point. This extreme economic environment led to high home prices and mortgage costs, and many people had to abandon their home-buying plans. However, as the Bank of Canada took steps to control inflation in the early 1990s, home prices came down.
进入新千年后，房价再次稳步上升。2000年代初，加拿大房市经历了一段稳定增长期，平均房价每年增长约2万加元。然而，2008年金融危机导致市场出现短暂调整，房价增长停滞。尽管如此，加拿大房市很快恢复了增长势头，到2020年，平均房价再次创下新高。
Once again, home prices rose steadily into the new millennium, and in the early 2000s, the Canadian housing market experienced a period of steady growth, with average home prices increasing by approximately $20,000 per year. However, the 2008 financial crisis led to a brief market correction and house price growth stalled. Nevertheless, the Canadian housing market quickly regained its momentum and by 2020, average home prices had once again reached new highs.
近年来，疫情对房市的影响尤为显著。2020年和2021年，尽管全球经济面临巨大挑战，却因为降息的因素，让贷款持有房地产的成本大大降低，也让许多投资客开始蠢蠢欲动。加拿大的房价也因此逆势上涨，尤其是在温哥华和多伦多这样的主要城市。
The impact of the epidemic on the housing market has been particularly significant in recent years. 2020 and 2021 have seen the cost of taking out a loan to hold real estate go down considerably due to interest rate cuts, despite the huge challenges facing the global economy, and have many investors getting excited. Canadian home prices have bucked the trend as a result, especially in major cities like Vancouver and Toronto.
加拿大主要城市房价在疫情这几年的价格走势图
在2021年，多伦多房屋的平均价格首次突破百万加元大关。但是这种增长并非没有代价，随着疫情常态化，加拿大央行开始加息，利率开始不断上升到5%的顶峰。
In 2021, for the first time, the average price of a Toronto home surpassed the million-dollar mark. But this growth did not come without a price, as the epidemic normalized, the Bank of Canada began to raise interest rates, which began to rise ever higher to a peak of 5%.
更要命的是，央行在长期维持高利率，贷款持有房地产的成本大大上升，许多人每个月的还贷竟然只是单纯的还利息，市场的热度也随之逐渐减退，毕竟没人愿意做亏本的买卖吧。
What's worse, with the central bank maintaining high interest rates for an extended period of time, the cost of taking out a loan to hold real estate has risen considerably, and it's amazing how many people's monthly loan repayments are simply interest payments, and the heat of the market is fading, after all, no one wants to make a money-losing proposition, right?
如今，加拿大央行再次进入“风险管理”模式，试图通过降低利率来避免经济衰退。在2024年7月，央行将基准利率下调至4.5%，并预计在年底前进一步降至4%。
Today, the Bank of Canada is once again in “risk management” mode, trying to avoid a recession by lowering interest rates. In July 2024, the Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and expects to cut it further to 4% by the end of the year.
加拿大央行自20年来的利率走势图
尽管如此，利率的变化并不会立即改变市场的基本面。公寓投资者仍需面对高昂的持有成本，而租金市场也需要时间来消化新完工公寓的供应量。
Nonetheless, the change in interest rates will not immediately change the fundamentals of the market. Apartment investors will still have to contend with high holding costs and the rental market will take time to absorb the supply of newly completed apartments.
从历史来看，央行的利率政策对房市有着深远的影响。1980年代的高利率时期，加拿大房市经历了一次严重的调整。
Historically, the central bank's interest rate policy has had a profound impact on the housing market. the high interest rate period of the 1980s saw the Canadian housing market undergo a severe correction.
相比之下，2000年代的低利率环境则推动了房价的稳步上升。当前，央行的利率调整旨在平衡经济增长和通胀压力，希望通过降低利率来刺激经济，保持房市的稳定。
In contrast, the low interest rate environment of the 2000s fueled a steady rise in home prices. Currently, the central bank's interest rate adjustments are aimed at balancing economic growth and inflationary pressures, hoping to stimulate the economy and keep the housing market stable by lowering interest rates.
长期
那么，在这种复杂的市场环境下，我们是否还应看好加拿大的房市呢？答案或许因人而异。如果你是长期投资者，那么尽管目前市场波动较大，但从历史来看，房地产的长期价值依然可观。无论是1980年代的经济危机，还是2008年的金融危机，加拿大房市最终都显示出了其强大的恢复能力和长期增长潜力。
So, in this complex market environment, should we still be bullish on the Canadian housing market? The answer may vary from person to person. If you are a long-term investor, then despite the current market volatility, the long-term value of real estate has historically remained substantial. Whether it was the economic crisis of the 1980s or the financial crisis of 2008, Canada's housing market ultimately demonstrated strong resilience and long-term growth potential.
短期
然而，如果你是短期投资者，或许需要更加谨慎。因为在投资界有个很出名的理论：利好落地反而是利空。当大家盼望着的降息真正到来时，也许房价的下跌才刚刚开始...
However, if you are a short-term investor, perhaps you need to be more cautious. Because there's a well known theory in the investment world: a favorable landing is instead a negative. When the hoped-for interest rate cut actually arrives, perhaps the fall in house prices has just begun...
关于加拿大的未来房市，你看好还是看空？
Are you bullish or bearish about the future of Canada's housing market?
