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摘 要
美国联储与加拿大央行政策分歧，折射不同经济前景与压力。
利率动态：特朗普效应与美加央行决策——2025年1月29日
Interest Rate Briefing: The Trump Effect and U.S. Fed & Bank of Canada Decisions – January 29, 2025
作者：一针见政
日期：2025年1月29日
January 29, 2025
乙巳蛇年正月初一
New Lunar Year’s First Day
Year of the Snake (Yisi Year)
美国联储与加拿大央行政策分歧，折射不同经济前景与压力
美国联邦储备局（Fed）与加拿大银行（BoC）在最新利率决策上采取了截然不同的货币政策路径，反映出两国在经济前景、通胀趋势及外部压力上的差异。
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) have taken sharply different monetary policy paths in their latest interest rate decisions, highlighting differences in economic outlooks, inflation trends, and external pressures.
决策日期：2025年1月29日 Decision Date: January 29, 2025
决策内容：联储局决定维持联邦基金利率于4.25%至4.50%区间，保持审慎立场。 Decision: The Fed held the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%, maintaining a cautious stance.
决策考量：尽管面临来自政治和市场的降息压力，联储局仍优先关注通胀控制。美国2024年12月通胀率升至2.9%，高于11月的2.7%，加上消费支出强劲及劳动市场韧性十足，联储局认为无立即降息的必要。 Reasoning: Despite political and market pressure for rate cuts, the Fed remains focused on controlling inflation, which rose to 2.9% in December 2024, up from 2.7% in November. With strong consumer spending and a resilient labor market, the Fed sees no immediate need for rate cuts.
政策隐忧：联储局正面临来自白宫与金融市场的降息压力，以应对潜在经济放缓。然而，决策者对通胀再度升温保持警惕，尤其是在财政政策不确定性与地缘政治风险加剧的背景下。 Concerns: The Fed is under growing pressure from the White House and financial markets to lower rates ahead of a potential economic slowdown. However, policymakers remain wary of inflation resurgence, particularly amid fiscal uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
决策日期：2025年1月29日 Decision Date: January 29, 2025 决策内容：加拿大央行将隔夜拆借利率从3.25%下调至3.00%，这是连续第六次降息。
Decision: The BoC cut its target overnight rate from 3.25% to 3.00%, marking its sixth consecutive rate cut.
决策考量：加拿大12月通胀率降至1.8%，物价压力有所缓解。同时，经济增长的不确定性，尤其是来自美国贸易政策的不稳定性及潜在对加国出口的关税威胁，促使加拿大央行先发制人地降息，以提振投资与消费。
Reasoning: Canada’s inflation slowed to 1.8% in December, easing pressure on prices. At the same time, economic growth concerns—especially uncertainty over U.S. trade policies and potential tariffs on Canadian exports—prompted the BoC to act preemptively to support investment and consumer spending.
政策隐忧：加拿大央行需在经济刺激与防范房地产市场过热及资本外流之间寻求平衡，特别是当美国维持较高利率的情况下。
Concerns: The BoC must balance economic stimulus with risks of an overheated housing market and capital outflows, especially as U.S. rates remain higher.
特朗普重返白宫对加拿大央行的影响远大于对联储局的影响。加拿大央行的提前降息反映了对贸易保护主义升温的忧虑，因为特朗普已明确释出强硬对待进口的信号。
Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency is already influencing Canada’s monetary policy more than the Fed’s. The BoC’s preemptive rate cuts reflect growing concerns over trade protectionism, as Trump has signaled a tougher stance on imports.
但对联储局而言，特朗普的当选尚未直接影响货币政策。联储局仍然聚焦于通胀与就业，目前尚未受外部政治压力左右。
For the Federal Reserve, however, Trump’s presidency has had no immediate impact on monetary policy. The Fed remains laser-focused on inflation and employment, resisting external political pressures for now.
若经济风险加剧，尤其是美国贸易摩擦升级，加拿大央行可能继续降息。
The BoC is likely to continue easing if economic risks mount, particularly if U.S. trade tensions escalate.
联储局将暂时维持利率不变，除非通胀进一步放缓，但来自政治与市场的降息压力将会不断升温。
The Fed will remain on hold unless inflation moderates further, though political and market pressure for cuts will likely intensify.
美国贸易政策或将成为影响加拿大央行决策的关键因素，特别是若美方关税开始对加国出口造成实质冲击。 U.S. trade policies could play a larger role in shaping future BoC decisions, especially if tariffs begin to hit Canadian exports.
美加央行截然不同的利率路径，突显了两国不同的经济现实——加拿大积极应对外部冲击，而美国则优先控制通胀。
The contrasting rate paths highlight the different economic realities of the two countries—Canada bracing for external shocks and the U.S. prioritizing inflation control.
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