· 大话西游，为什么当年不红后面红？
· 衰退的国家，有没有增长的企业，赛道在哪里？
· 零售业难长青，老巴为何还是并购了两家？
· 保险，的商业模式？
· 保险的浮存金是什么？
· 伯克希尔卖保险有什么优势？
· 伯克希尔为什么分拆AB股？
· 公司回购股票，是不是对股东都有利？
· 老巴一般越多一个公司年报多久？
· 好公司，合适的投资权重多少？
· 好公司，是永远不卖，还是一切皆有价格？
资料来源：
☆ 大象放映室《激荡四十年》
☆《追寻价值之路 - 1990~2020中国股市行情复盘》
☆《芒格之道 - 查理·芒格股东会讲话》
☆ BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. - 《SHAREHOLDER LETTERS》
☆ 雪球 - 喜诗勘地 - 伯克希尔-哈撒韦编年史
☆ 雪球 - 穿越谜雾的专栏
☆ 雪球 - 大唐炼金师
☆ B站· - 复利的奇迹ETF基金理财 - 巴菲特股东大会1994至2021年
大 事
关键词：日本奥姆真理教 李登辉 王海 《大话西游》 《95神雕侠侣》
中国大事
文娱
1995的高分电影没有1994年的多，重要的其中三部，恰恰都是遇见爱情却没有嫁给爱情的主题，恰恰又是三种不同的风格，无厘头、青年文艺、成熟家庭。
（网图 《爱在黎明破晓前 Before Sunrise 》）
是遗憾？
（网图 《大话西游》）
为了寻找配乐灵感，赵季平决定去片场看看。结果在片场，他却看到了更为不适应的场景：到处挂得都是牛魔王的五脏六腑……
有些诡异的场景，让一直做严肃电影配乐的赵季平，突然生出了反感，但最后他还是花费一个月的时间，为电影完成了配乐。
交接工作时，赵季平还和制片方说：“千万别给我在电影里署名，我丢不起这个人。”
人物影像
里面也有赵季平的《雨夜诀别》。
詹宏达（新鸳鸯蝴蝶梦）的《过馆人生》。
鲍比达的一堆《断情殇》，《少林雄风》等。
（网图 《神雕侠侣》）
☆ 音乐 《为你我受冷风吹》（李宗盛、林忆莲）、《过火》（张信哲）、《忘情水》（刘德华）、《一千个伤心的理由》（张学友《真爱》（新曲+精选），华语乐坛离世销量第一）、陈奕迅出道、《一千零一夜》（邰正宵）、《朋友别哭》（吕方）、《恋恋风尘》（老狼）、《大中国》（原名《中国》、高枫）
☆ 音乐王菲《暧昧》（她的粤语专辑《Di-Dar 》，林夕重新填词，把当年黄莺莺《情雪》翻唱成了《暧昧》，2001年侯湘婷《爱之旅》专辑中，姚谦又重新填词《暧昧》，个人最爱的是后面这版）
大 事
关键词：327国债 储蓄补贴 周道炯
（《追寻价值之路 - 1990~2020中国股市行情复盘》）
大 势
感谢1995年股市让俺很小资金（6.4万，同时期杭州城西40方房产）的情况下被爆仓一场，让俺谨慎，让俺记住教训，一辈子牢记风险，牢记安全第一，确定性第一
超级鹿鼎公·雪球·2015
1995年，假设有一个虚拟的日本韮菜股民巴韮特，在他现实世界中的外国同宗巴菲特持有独特美国公司可口可乐的同时，投资了他自认为独特的日本公司朝日啤酒。
那么二十六年后，不懂日本特色，不会变通的巴韮特先生会发现自己拿到的卵巢彩票与巴菲特正好相反～这期间美国GDP增长了两倍多，日本反而下降。。。日本的公司治理也比美国更差，终身雇佣制，年功序列制抑制了日本公司的活力。
但同时，他会发现朝日的单年派息增长了11.9倍。而可乐的派息只增长了5.5倍。
结果是巴韮特比巴菲特赚得多。
宁静的冬日M·雪球·2022
大 师
关键词：犯错 击球区 个体VS宏观 薪酬计划 账面价值VS内在价值 美国运通 格雷厄姆vs费雪 投资入门
中国行
查理·芒格
过往股东信有一个有栏目，"Look-Through"Earnings透视利润，Berkshire's Majorlnvestees主要投资，今年没有了，因为不知道Capital cites的股票会转成迪士尼还是现金，也不知道盖可的收购如何进行财务处理，所以今年略过了。
并购 Acquisitions伯克希尔，在1995年度进行了三件并购。
Helzberg钻石店（Helzberg's Diamond Shops）、R.C.Willey家具店（R.C. Willey Home Furnishings）、盖可保险（GEICO Corporation），前两件都是零售业，就是老巴口中需要时时做对的行业。（Retailing is a tough business. During my investment career, I have watched a large number of retailers enjoy terrific growth and superb returns on equity for a period, and then suddenly nosedive, often all the way into bankruptcy. This shooting-star phenomenon is far more common in retailing than it is in manufacturing or service businesses. In part, this is because a retailer must stay smart, day after day. Your competitor is always copying and then topping whatever you do. Shoppers are meanwhile beckoned in every conceivable way to try a stream of new merchants. In retailing, to coast is to fail）.
关于并购，除了前一年提到的管理层动物精神，股东利益最大化。这次还提了两个故事。
一是跛马故事。马脚时好时坏，兽医的建议，趁正常时卖掉。把跛马装饰成正常，往往发生在并购中（In the world of mergers and acquisitions, that horse would be peddled as Secretariat）。
二是彼得德鲁克的采访。相对与烦闷枯燥的工作，促成交易则刺激而有趣（ "I will tell you a secret: Dealmaking beats working. Dealmaking is exciting and fun, and working is grubby. Running anything is primarily an enormous amount of grubby detail work . . . dealmaking is romantic, sexy. That's why you have deals that make no sense."）。
盖可保险 cquisitions保险的商业模式（1996股东大会问答）
资产报酬率：巴芒的投资能力；
负债的成本：浮存金几乎零成本；
财务杠杆：
浮存金就是负债，以合理价格承接保单，即以合适的方式增加负债，就能与公司价值增长相得益彰。
很多人都以为，在投资中“耐心”等待随机波动低位期的低PE，PB出现就叫“稳”，其实不是～真正的稳是放弃对波动的判断。 假如有一个人为了等到自己认定的“低PE，PB机会”，长期大比例持有现金等价物，这其实是非常严重的投机赌博行为（不要以为只有赌涨才是赌，赌跌也是赌～而且就股票资产总体来看很可能是更疯狂的赌），一点也不稳啊，何来最稳。。。 ……1965年到1995年的三十年数据，每年买到最高点的人年化回报10.6%，每年买到最低点的人回报11.7%，每年闭着眼睛开年就买的人回报11%～每年都赌对，跟每年都赌错的最倒霉家伙比也无非多赚了1.1%而已。 宁静的冬日M·雪球·2021
·伯克希尔的优势
理赔能力：财务实力，不论情况多糟，他们都可以顺利获得理赔； 反应速度：最快的速度向客户完成报价； 理赔上限：可以签下比其他保险公司金额更高的保单，可接受的最高理赔上限是10亿美元，其它同业约为4亿美元。
伯克希尔分拆AB股
伯克希尔-哈撒韦A(NYSE:BRK.A) $672940.00
伯克希尔-哈撒韦B(NYSE:BRK.B) $448.77
（雪球）
回购回购本身就是资本分配的一种，正确性源自你对未来现金流的预估；股价高于内在价值时回购股票，对股东有害，就像在股价低于内在价值时增发股票一样。
可口可乐和盖可的回购案例。
两只股票都在回购 一只净资产收益率8%，手持现金是市值的50%，市价0.5PB回购 一只净资产收益率16%，手持现金是市值的6% 市价4PB回购 那只回购效率高？？ 是不是应该明明白白的 所以即使回购，也有坏回购与好回购之分，当初美的，格力的高估值回购，就是送钱给别人，消耗大量现金，短期支撑股价，长期对股东不利，只有低估值（包括低PB，低PE）的回购，才是对长期股东的利好 谈的都是回购注销，高估值回购不注销反而当股权激励的，那就更惨了，属于送钱给管理层 超级鹿鼎公·雪球·2024
何不出售伯克希尔股权出售能获得收益，然后呢？下一步要做什么？
上涨不该是结局。
出售可能削弱股东的权益，可能使新股东处于不利。
一般上，股东没有过得比企业好；但，希望上涨来自内在价值的增长，希望做终生股东，希望股东能成比例获取经营中的成果，这个是我们的目标。
The owners of businesses, in aggregate, cannot come out anyway better than the businesses come out. The businesses are the, not just our business, I'm talking about, all American business, the profitability of American business.……have owners do better than their businesses, and our idea is to have them do it as they go along, in proportion to the gain it occurs during their. Tenure as a shareholder, and that isn't easy to do, and it's not attained perfectly, but that is, that's the goal, as we go along。
关于年报阅读（提问，关注年报的哪些信息，希望年报是怎样的）
就像我们买了公司的一半，然后另一半的所有人，在年底给我公司的情况报告。
To what if I owned half of a company but was away for a year, and I had a partner who owned the other half? What? When I came back，that he would tell me about what had taken place during the past year and what he foresaw coming up, and all of that, that is what I think the purpose.
如果只是单纯按SEC的要求披露，如果只是官样文章，就意义不大了。
but there's an intent behind the report, I mean, if it's a sales document，I'm less interested
如果投资一个行业，有8家公司，我会阅读这8家的年报。如果要了解我投资公司的行业，就需要知道这个行业其他公司都在干什么，活得怎么样。
At at Berkshire, if we own a hall of a business I want to own shares in in all of the competitors, just to keep track of what's going on, and I want to be able to intelligently evaluate how our managers are doing that, and Ican't do that unless I know the industry background against which they are working。
这完全依赖的是外在信息（outside information）,而不是小道消息（inside information）。
即使是简单业务，读年报也需要花时间。45分钟一家公司，行业里6-8家公司，也就需要6-8个小时。
Forty five minutes or an hour on a report, and if there are six or eight companies in the industry, that's going to be six or eight hours, perhaps in.And then their quarterlies and a lot of other
管理层对投资者的意义好的商业模式，一般的管理层就足够。
一般的商业模式，要做好，就得需要好的管理层。
The really great business is one that doesn't require good management, I mean that is, that's a terrific business, and the, the, the poor business is one that can only succeed or even survive with great management.
We look for people that know their businesses, love their businesses love their shareholders want to treat them as as partners .
因为这种不确定性。
500强的CEO的能力，也有不确定性，不像奥运会的选手，经过一致性的层层选拔。
CEOs of the Fortune 500 are not selectedlike 500 members of the American Olympic Track and field team, and and it is not the same process.
如果可以，肯定希望有能力的管理层，操作好的商业模式。
而且，这种能力就像打球，不是来自球棒，也不是来自教练。
Some guy says, you know, I batted 127 last year, but I've got a new bat, a new batting coach, you know, some managementconsultant, has come in and told them how to do it,supposedly, we're very suspicious of that.
Like the CEOs of our other operating units, they will operate autonomously: We want them to feel that the businesses they run are theirs. This means no second-guessing by Charlie and me. We avoid the attitude of the alumnus whose message to the football coach is "I'm 100% with you - win or tie." Our basic goal as an owner is to behave with our managers as we like our owners to behave with us.集中与分散diversification（下午第四个问题，被提问买入额是否总在总投资额的5%~10%之间）
关于头寸（position），有些太小，没列入年报（只列出6亿以上），有些抛售了。
分散，是无知的保护。
We like to put a lot of money in things that that we feel strongly about. We think diversification is as practice generally makes very little sense foranyone that knows what they're doing.
Diversification is a protection against ignorance.
投资清单上第30/35号股票，不如把这个钱放到第1号。
And then putting money in number thirty or thirty five onyour list of attractiveness and forgo putting more moneyin the number one just strikes Charlie, and as as madness.
分散投资，这也是一种传统的做法，如果只需要平均回报，如果只是要保住你的工作（不大幅跑输大盘）。
it's conventional practice，if all you have to achieve is is average.it may preserve your job, but it's a confession, in our view that you don't really understand the businesses that you own.
基于个人投资组合
在伯克希尔
I mean on a personal portfolio basis, you know, I own one stock, you know, but it's a business I know, and it leads me very comfortable.
I could pick out three of our businesses, and I would, I would be very happy if they were the only businesses we own, and I had all my money in Berkshire. Now I love it the fact that we can.
The average person isn't going to run into that If you look at how the fortunes were built in this country.they weren't built out of a portfolio, fifty companies, They were built by someone who identified with us with a wonderful business.
如果说，分散是为了抵御经济变化，那么好公司，本身就能很好地抵御经济变化。没有五十家可口可乐，二十家都没有，但三家好企业，比一百家平均企业好。
识别三家好企业，足以让你致富。
坏事情，不会同时击倒三家好企业。
I mean, if you have a really wonderful business is very well protected against against the vicissitudes of the economy over time.
businesses that are resistant，To effective competition，three of those will be better than a hundred average businesses.They'll be safer, incidentally, they, there is less risk.
If you find, if you find three wonderful businesses in your life, you'll get very rich and and if you understand them.Bad things aren't going to happen to those three, I mean, that's the characteristic of it.
好公司与择时（提问发现值得拥有20-30年的好公司，是否应该先等待一两年看看）
等待好股票的恐慌时刻，就像殡葬行业期待流感爆发，极端的意外之财，很难获得。
Mortician, you know, waiting for a flu epidemicor something, I mean it, I'm not sure that .
You know, you never get the benefit of those extremes anyway, unless you just come into some accidental.
重要的，是找到好公司。
甚至的，可以假设股票市场不存在，或一年只能交易一次。
I think people's investment would be more intelligent if it, you know, stocks were quoted about once a year, but it isn't going to happen that way.
面对高估任何资产都有价格（price for everything），还是好资产是永久持有（permanent holding）？
比尔盖茨说，买卖应该有逻辑，这是市场化资产。
Bill Gates says there that has to be a logical, at some point, the numbers have to, at some price, you have to be willing to sell something that's a marketable security, forgetting about a control business.
老巴说，他也不知道能否经受住高价的考验。关键是问题：
能有机会以更低的价格再把它买回来吗
能以更低的价格买到和它差不多好的公司吗
Am I going to get a chance to buy back the same business at a lot lower price, or am I going to buy something that's almost as good at a lot lower price.
We don't think we're very good at doing that, we'd rather just sit and hold the business and pretend the stock market doesn't exist.
其他-End-
