此文章为英文原版内容，可使用微信的“全文翻译”功能转换为中文阅读，功能使用方法可参照文末示意图
Investment funds' net long TTF position on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) jumped to a new all-time high earlier this month, outstripping the previous record in late August.
The latest weekly data from Ice show investment funds' net long TTF position shot up to a new record at just under 273TWh by 15 November, topping the previous all-time high of roughly 268TWh in the week ending 30 August, revised data show.
After peaking in August, the position dropped to 192TWh on 20 September, and held broadly stable before jumping 33.6TWh in the week ending 25 October.
TTF prices rose in the following two weeks, but funds trimmed their net long position to around 226TWh on 8 November (see graph).
Net positions on ICE TTF TWh
But in the most recent week of data from Ice, investment funds' net long position shot up to just under 273TWh by 15 November, a new record high. Over the same period of 8-15 November, The Argus TTF front-month contract rose by more than 9pc, and there were similarly large moves for the first-quarter 2025 and summer 2025 contracts. The calendar 2025 price was also up by 8pc (see table).
Significant price volatility in recent trading sessions has also prompted Ice to increase margin rates by around 20pc on all contracts out to September 2025, with smaller increases further down the curve.
Austrian incumbent OMV announced this week Russia's Gazprom would halt its contractual supply from 16 November, prompting sizeable day-on-day price moves across Europe and possibly encouraging investment funds to go longer and capitalise on the volatility.
But central European flows have changed only slightly since then, with roughly the same amount of Russian gas entering the region. Higher TTF prices have also caused LNG diversions from Asia to Europe in recent days, which reached double digits on 19 November.
Such a large net long position suggests investment funds may still expect a tight European gas balance this winter. Record-low freight rates have brought the cost of shipping US LNG to Asia closer to the cost of the shorter US-Europe route, meaning European prices have to rise sufficiently high enough to offset this and close the inter-basin arbitrage again in order to attract uncommitted cargoes.
Cold weather has also prompted EU firms to draw down storage stocks heavily so far this month. Aggregate EU withdrawals averaged just under 3 TWh/d on 1-15 November, four times the 756 GWh/d average for that period in 2018-22 and sharply contrasting the 965 GWh/d of net injections across the bloc on 1-15 November 2023.
Unlike investment funds, the two other major categories of Ice market participant — commercial undertakings and investment/credit firms — boosted their net short positions by a combined 53TWh, leaving the latter with nearly 200TWh in net shorts, the highest since mid-September.
Despite significant storage withdrawals, commercial undertakings ‘risk reduct' contracts — generally used for hedging — in the week to 15 November jumped by just under 30TWh to nearly 211TWh, the highest since 24 December 2021. Some of that increase may have been driven by a need to hedge the LNG cargoes diverted to Europe in recent weeks as European hub prices rose.
A 9TWh increase in the net long position of commercial undertakings' other contracts slightly moderated the overall net short increase.
The gross short and long positions of commercial undertakings totalled 1.95PWh, nearly twice as large as the investments funds' 646TWh and investment/credit firms' 421TWh combined.
正式发布
阿格斯欧洲天然气市场展望月报
供需环境不断变化，欧洲天然气和LNG市场变得更加不稳定。阿格斯欧洲天然气市场展望报告提供了详细的前瞻性基本面分析和该地区的价格预测，并对全球液化天然气供需平衡进行展望:
欧洲市场供需平衡：提供欧洲市场综合平衡，以及各主要供需来源分析。
按细分市场划分的需求：提供有关欧洲主要消费来源的详细定量和定性信息，包括住宅、商业、工业和电力行业的天然气需求，以及欧洲的出口和天然气储存注入情况。
按地区和类型划分的供应情况：提供有关管道和液化天然气供应的分类、定量和定性信息，以及储气库取气信息。鉴于欧洲面临不断变化的全球供应链，我们还提供了按地区划分的液化天然气供需详情。
TTF 价格：按月提供对荷兰TTF基准价格的18个月预测，反应阿格斯对特定月份的平均即时交付价格预期。
月度变化：基于影响天然气市场发展的关键事件，解析预测及假设的月度变化。
除全新发布的展望报告外，阿格斯对欧洲天气及全球LNG市场拥有数十年的价格评估与市场分析经验，并已成为定价和基本面分析工作不可或缺信息源。
您可以通过下方二维码申请相关报告试阅。
阿格斯为国际天然气和液化天然气(LNG)市场提供每日价格信息，以及分析报告和基本面数据。阿格斯天然气价格被很多公司用于现货和长协合同定价、风险分析和管理、逐日盯市和战略规划。
长按识别二维码
申请试阅 了解更多
[ 新增 ] 阿格斯全新推出“碳中和”LNG交易数据及可下载电子表格，将分别以现货和定期交易的形式呈现，并将记录全球"碳中和"LNG交易的如下细节：
买方和卖方
交付窗口期
交付地和装载地
"碳中和"货物的关键信息，如抵消范围、抵消机制以及承担抵消费用方等。
All Argus prices and data are Argus’ proprietary information and are reproduced here for a limited period of time for information purposes only. Argus gives no warranty and expressly excludes all liability of any kind.
所有Argus的价格和数据均为Argus的专有信息，此处仅为在有限的时间内复制，仅供参考。阿格斯公司不提供任何保证，并明确排除任何形式的所有责任。
© 2024 Argus Media group. All rights reserved / 阿格斯迈特佩奇(北京)信息技术有限公司 版权所有
EN
英文原版文章，可使用微信的“全文翻译”功能转换为中文阅读，点击左图放大查看示意图
点击阅读原文 申请试阅
