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Donald Trump's return to the White House will probably only have a marginal effect on US oil production in the near term, energy and commodities economists told the Argus European Crude Conference in London.
Even pro-Trump oil executives in the US shale patch "don't believe there is a magical spigot that you can turn that would automatically increase growth... within a four-year period", the global head of commodities at US-based bank Standard Chartered, Paul Horsnell, told delegates.
There are some steps that Trump's new administration could take to boost production further down the line, such as a faster pace of oil and gas licensing and allowing more drilling in Alaska, but "there isn't a particular obstacle" holding the shale sector back at the moment, Horsnell said.
He noted that despite shale producers' best efforts, output is down in North Dakota, the Bakken and Oklahoma. Output is down in California, Alaska and offshore as well, he said. Despite New Mexico and Texas "running pretty hot", Horsnell said there is "not much more you can bring to bear, even if you were directly subsidising the sector, which isn't really an option".
Horsnell said he is "not really getting the buzz, certainly from Texas, that they feel things are going to change very dramatically".
The emphasis within the US shale patch remains on drilling longer lateral wells so that operators are "moving out of tier one acreage into tier two acreage", he said. This takes time, "but there's nothing that central government can do to turn tier two acreage into tier one acreage or to drill faster or to get the technology working even faster or bring on AI [Artificial Intelligence] even quicker".
While there will probably be more supply in Trump's second term, "this return to the dream of American energy dominance" is "not to be overstated", Horsnell said.
Standard Chartered forecasts that US crude output will grow by 600,000 b/d next year from its current level of 13.4mn b/d. "We are just looking at the US nudging forward next year," Horsnell said "We're looking for high 13mn b/d or 14mn b/d."
Trading firm Trafigura's chief economist Saad Rahim told the conference that there has also been "a shift in composition of the shale patch", noting that ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have gone from about 10pc ownership of US shale acreage to almost 50pc. A new "portfolio approach" is being taken to manage this acreage, with efficiency gains driving value for these companies rather than production growth, Rahim said.
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