全球三大贸易商预计Opec+将推迟增产计划

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Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor representatives today suggested that Opec+ members would probably continue to delay their plan to start increasing crude production.

The comments from three of the world's biggest trading firms come just days before the Opec+ alliance is set to hold a ministerial meeting on 1 December to decide its output policy for next year.

At the top of the agenda is whether eight members will begin returning 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" production cuts over a 12-month period starting in January — three months later than originally planned.

"I think there's no room for them to increase," Gunvor chief executive Torbjorn Tornqvist said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London today.  "So far they've been very disciplined and they've made the right call not to add any oil," he said.

Most forecasters predict weak oil demand next year, with the market flipping into a surplus.

"I suspect that the barrels coming back will again be deferred," Trafigura's global head of oil Ben Luckock said.  "Exactly how long?  Probably not that far, but they have the choice to be able to continue to [delay] and they probably don't enjoy the price right now."

The front-month Ice Brent crude futures is currently trading around $73/bl, around $20/bl below where prices were before Opec+ announced its initial output cut in October 2022.  The alliance has reduced output by about 4mn b/d since then, Argus estimates.

"The likelihood is that Opec will try to manage the market through the next two to three months to wait to see how some of these geopolitical aspects solve themselves," Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said.

All three executives pointed to geopolitical uncertainties such as the incoming US administration's Iran sanctions policy, the trajectory of the Ukraine-Russia war and the conflict in the Middle East as potential market movers in 2025.

Luckock also stressed the importance of compliance for the Opec+ alliance.  "I think compliance is a huge deal, because a cheating Opec doesn't yield higher prices."

Members including Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia have tended to exceed their production targets this year, tarnishing the credibility of the alliance.  But a long-running Saudi-led effort to get these countries to comply and compensate appears to be bearing fruit.

The three executives also gave their traditional forecasts for what the oil price would be in 12 months.

Tornqvist said he expected prices to be similar to today's levels at $70/bl, which he described as "fair" given the world's large spare production capacity and declining production costs.

Luckock said it was a "mug's game" forecasting 12-months out, particularly given the range of geopolitical uncertainties on the horizon.  When pressed for a number he settled on $75/bl, but said this was not particularly useful to anyone.

Hardy stuck with his previous forecast of $70-80/bl.

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