🎓原文：Why the Federal Reserve has gambled on a big interest-rate cut?｜带音频👀来源：经济雪仁20240921期
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THE FEDERAL
RESERVE’S decision on September 18th to lower interest rates by half a
percentage point, to between 4.75% and 5%, is momentous. As the first cut by America’s
central bank since it lifted rates to quell inflation, the shift marks the
start of a monetary-easing cycle. It also represents a bet that inflation will
soon be yesterday’s problem and that action is required to support the labourmarket. For the first time since 2005, one of the Fed’s governors in Washington dissented from the decision. Michelle Bowman preferred to cut rates by a quarter-point.
momentous： [moʊˈmentəs]
adj. 重要的，重大的
Momentum：势头，推进力
Significant：重要的，显著的
Important：重要的
quell： [kwel]
v. 抑制，压制
Suppress：镇压，压制
stife：扼杀，镇压
dissent from：与…意见不同，不赞同
Differ from：不同意（某意见或某人），与…不同
Disagree：不同意
When the
Fed raised rates between early 2022 and mid-2023, it telegraphed the size of each rise in advance. This time there was uncertainty about how big
the reduction would be. A week earlier, market pricing implied roughly 65% odds
that the Fed would cut rates by a quarter-point and 35% odds of a half-point.
By the day before the decision, pricing had flipped, indicating a 65% probability of
a half-point cut. That some investors, albeit a minority, were still
positioned for a smaller move helps explain why stocks rallied at first after
the Fed opted for a bigger cut.
v. 电报通知；n. 电报，电报机
Telegram：电报
flip：[flɪp]
v. 快速翻转/浏览/突然改变；n. 浏览，空翻
Browse：浏览
Skim through：浏览
albeit： [ˌɔːlˈbiːɪt]
conj. 虽然，即使，尽管
Although：虽然，尽管
Despite：尽管，即使
Even if：即使，虽然
The argument
for a half-point cut rests on several pillars. Crucially, the Fed is confident
that it is on track to bring inflation under control. Price rises have slowed
to an annual pace of 2.5%, not far from its target of 2%. With oil prices sagging and rents rising more slowly, there is a good chance that inflation will soon
ease further. So the Fed’s worries have shifted to the job market. The
unemployment rate of 4.2% is low, but nearly a full percentage point higher
than early last year. And companies have pared back their hiring. Jerome Powell, the
Fed’s chair, portrayed the rate cut as a recalibration of monetary policy in line with
a lessening of inflation risks and an increase in unemployment risks.
pillar：[ˈpɪlər]
n. 柱子，支柱，墩
Column：柱状物，专栏
Pill：药丸
sag：[sæɡ]
v. 下垂，下跌、减少；n. 经济萧条，下陷或松弛
下跌：slump，droop，dip
Pare
back：消减开支
Pare：消减，削皮
recalibrate： [rɪ'kælɪ'breʃən]
n. 重新校准
Mr Powell’s cut is also a form of
insurance. It takes months for rate reductions to filter through the economy. Given this lag, and given the expectation that the economy will
continue to slow, it makes sense for the Fed to make a bigger move now in order
to get ahead of the
coming weakness. The central bank was late in raising rates in 2022. This time,
it hopes that starting with a bigger cut will steer the economy towards a soft
landing, avoiding the recession which many analysts once thought inevitable.
“We don’t think we’re behind,” said Mr Powell. “We think this is
timely. But I think you can take this as sign of our commitmentnot to get behind.”
Filter through：渗透，过滤
Get
ahead of：领先，超过
inevitable：[ɪnˈevɪtəbl]
adj. 不可避免的，必然的
Evitable：可以避免的
Incredible：难以置信的
commitment： [kəˈmɪtmənt]
n. 承诺，委托，献身
Committee：委员会
Comment：评论，意见
The Fed’s
big cut nevertheless poses some dangers. Despite the cracks in the labourmarket, the economy as a whole appears to be holding up well. Resilient consumption has put it on track for annualisedgrowth of 3% in the current quarter, well ahead of most forecasts just a month
ago. A hefty rate cut against a strong economic backdrop risks sending the wrong signal to
financial markets. The central bank judged that this risk was manageable.
According to projections released on September 18th, the median forecast of Fed officials is that they will reduce rates by another 1.5
percentage points by the end of next year. They could easily make fewer cuts if
inflation proves to be more stubborn.
resilient：[rɪˈzɪljənt]
adj. 可迅速恢复的/有弹性的
hefty： [ˈhɛfti]
adj. 很大的，可观的
median：[ˈmidiən]
adj. 中间的，平均的
n. 中位数
Medium：中等的
Average：平均的，普通的
Para.6
Another danger
is politics. Coming just before the presidential election, the big rate cut may
attract criticism from Donald Trump as a sign that the Fed, a frequent target
of his ire, is trying to help Kamala
Harris. Yet a quarter-point cut could just as easily have invited a charge from
Democrats that Mr. Powell
had been intimidated by Mr.Trump.Mr.Powell
has long said that he tunes out the political din. He may well need a hefty
pair of noise-cancelling headphones in the coming weeks.
ire：[aɪr]
n. 愤怒
Anger：愤怒，生气
Fury：狂怒，暴怒
intimidate：[ɪnˈtɪmɪdeɪt]
v. 恐吓，威胁
Frighten：使惊恐，害怕
Startle：使震惊，使惊吓
Terrify：使惊恐，，使惊吓
Scare：惊吓，害怕
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