Indonesia Market News 印尼市场新闻
文摘
2024-11-20 10:00
印度尼西亚
The yuan falls due to lingering concern over potentially higher US tariffs on Chinese goods under a Donald Trump administration. Government bonds rebound. The onshore yuan is likely to depreciate 10%-15% as an expected rise in trade tensions with the US is seen spurring “financial stability fears. The drop is significantly smaller than the 28%-30% indicated by the tariff-adjusted fair value of the currency. Market expects the yuan to trade in the range of 7.2 to 7.3 per dollar by year-end. Concern over tariffs will keep the CNY on the back foot, while Beijing may lay out more policy after having more clarity on Trump’s tariff plans. PBOC may have already stepped in to defend the currency, with stronger than expected CNY fixing and tighter CNH liquidity conditions.由于对唐纳德·特朗普政府可能对中国商品征收更高关税的担忧挥之不去，人民币下跌。政府债券反弹。在岸人民币可能会贬值10%-15%，因为与美国的贸易紧张局势预计会加剧，引发“金融稳定担忧”。这一降幅明显小于关税调整后的货币公允价值所显示的28%-30%。市场预计，到年底，人民币兑美元汇率将在7.2至7.3之间。对关税的担忧将使人民币处于不利地位，而北京可能会在更清楚地了解特朗普的关税计划后制定更多政策。中国央行可能已经介入保护人民币，人民币定盘价高于预期，人民币流动性条件收紧。Indonesia’s central bank will likely leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged for a second straight month, delaying further easing as growing market uncertainties weaken the rupiah towards the key support level of 16,000 to the dollar. Bank Indonesia is expected to hold the BIRate at 6% on Wednesday, according to 27 of 36 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The rest expect a quarter-point reduction to 5.75%. Governor Perry Warjiyo, speaking on Nov. 6 as vote counts showed Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, said the central bank must be cautious because of the risk of a trade war, an uncertain easing path for the Federal Reserve, and continued geopolitical tensions.印尼央行可能会连续第二个月维持基准利率不变，推迟进一步放松政策，因市场不确定性增加，令印尼盾跌向1美元兑16000印尼盾的关键支撑位。彭博新闻社（Bloomberg News）对36位经济学家的调查显示，预计印尼央行周三将把BI-Rate维持在6%的水平。其余则预计央行降息25个基点至5.75%。11月6日，随着计票结果显示唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统大选，美联储行长佩里·瓦吉约表示，由于贸易战的风险、美联储不确定的宽松路径以及持续的地缘政治紧张局势，央行必须保持谨慎。
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