《自然》社论:COP29应在IPCC的指引下聚焦全球气候融资与1.5°C目标

学术   2024-11-06 16:59   北京  

第29届联合国气候变化大会(COP29)将于11月11日在阿塞拜疆巴库开幕。

第29届联合国气候变化大会(COP29)将于11月11日在阿塞拜疆巴库开幕。目前,全球气温徘徊在比工业化前水平高出近1.5 °C的水平,巴库面临的最大问题是,气温上升是否会促使国际社会采取更紧急的行动来减缓全球变暖并应对其影响。本届缔约方大会被称为“财政缔约方大会”,因为大幅增加资金是首要议程。


采取有意义的行动应对全球变暖需要比现在多得多的资金。毫无疑问的是,在各国代表飞抵巴库后,关于谁该出钱、出多少钱的问题将陷入僵局。还有,气候融资究竟应该包括哪些内容?有一项行动可以带来重大改变:气候外交官可以正式要求政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布一份关于气候融资的特别报告。


明年,世界各国必须更新其气候行动计划,即国家自主决定贡献方案(NDCs),使其目标与阻止气温达到危险水平所需的目标相匹配。目前,一些最常见的行动包括建立更多的太阳能和风能发电厂,以及保护森林和其他生态系统。


但上述这些发展的速度和规模与1.5 °C目标所需的条件完全不匹配。即使目前所有的国家减排目标都得以实现,到2100年,全球气温仍将比工业化前水平升高2.1~2.8 °C。根据IPCC的数据,在将升温幅度有效控制在1.5 °C以下的情景下,到2030年,温室气体排放量需要比2019年的水平低43%。


实现上述目标的前提是,能够找到巨额资金来支撑向可持续性转型的成本。根据一个国际气候融资研究小组去年为COP28发布的一份被广泛引用的报告,到2030年,中低收入国家每年的投资将需要增加到约2.4万亿美元。根据经济合作与发展组织(OECD)5月公布的数据,这大约是2022年向中低收入国家提供的气候资金(1160亿美元)的20倍。


但对于这些数字及其他问题,各方并未达成共识。谁将支付额外的资金,何时支付?多少是赠款,多少是贷款?应拨出多少资金用于减缓气候变化?多少用于防洪等应对措施?在COP29召开之前,气候谈判代表们已经开了一年的会,但对于所谓的新的气候融资集体量化目标,各方几乎都没有达成一致意见。


高收入国家希望中低收入国家承担更多的气候融资责任,而中低收入国家希望的正好相反。


由于对气候融资的构成要素没有一个公认的定义,情况变得越来越糟糕——IPCC第六次气候融资评估报告的第15章承认了这一点。有人认为,气候融资不应该包括向非严格意义上与气候变化相关的事物提供资金。例如,如果资金被用于支付由可再生能源驱动的住房开发项目,那么总成本中有多少应被归类为气候融资,这一点尚未达成共识。过高的数字可能会夸大气候融资的金额。


这就是为什么《自然》建议请IPCC提供建议,IPCC是每个人都信任的组织,能够建立证据基础,帮助回答那些难以达成共识的问题。一些国家需要向IPCC秘书处提出具体要求,以获得一份关于气候融资的特别报告。然后,IPCC将发出证据征集令。这将促使资助者和研究人员召开会议,委托并开展那些会被纳入特别报告的研究。


投资回报


在巴黎协定达成后,IPCC曾被要求提交一份特别报告,以评估升温幅度达到1.5 °C和2 °C的影响,以及达到1.5 °C的路径建议。这能够为国际社会提供重要的决策依据。从委托编写报告到报告正式出版大约需要两年时间,这也就是为什么各国需要尽早提出申请的原因。


气候融资不是个小数目,即使是2.4万亿美元也相当于意大利的国内生产总值。但归根结底,这些资金需要被视为能够带来回报的投资,而不是成本。IPCC也并不是决定可行性和条件的机构,作出这种决定的责任在于各国代表。但IPCC可以协助谈判者,在最新文献的基础上回答他们的问题,同时更新这些文献。


如果要将气温上升控制在安全范围内,就必须在气候融资方面作出重大改变。IPCC不能成为决策者,但可以提供建议。各国应立即要求IPCC承担相应的责任。


原文以“COP29: involve the IPCC in defining climate finance”为题发表于《自然》的社论版块。


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ESE首届编委会由120位全球生态环境研究领域的顶级专家学者构成。哈尔滨工业大学任南琪院士担任主编,中国环境科学学会理事长、生态环境部环境规划院王金南院士和中国环境科学研究院吴丰昌院士担任副主编,俞汉青院士、Danny Reible院士等13位世界顶尖学者担任执行主编和执行副主编。


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ESE近5年刊文量及JCR影响因子。刊文量是指WoS数据库Citable items的数量。2024年数据截至9月30日。



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