埃文

Evan Hill

·太和青年观察家

·TI Youth Observer

Introduction

The global economy has experienced instability, with challenges that disproportionately affect the youth labor market. Lasting and positive changes can be realized only through sustained, collective action by the international community. This critical moment demands unity among nations, not division.

2024 was a year of turbulence. Over 70 global national elections, the advent of AI, and a shifting economic paradigm created an environment that severely disabled the job market for people, particularly the younger generation, across the globe. This trend is not unique to a single country or culture, but reflective of a larger paradigm shift in the global economy as the world transitions into a new shape.

The US, the world's largest economy, has a superficially strong growth performance, though this comes with many asterisks. Though economic and employment numbers appear good on paper, what remains unreflected in these statistics are employment quality, consumer savings, and stability. Approximately 50% of Americans currently perceive themselves as living paycheck to paycheck, the cost of living skyrocketed over 5% and 8% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, and the US national debt sits at a whopping 36 trillion USD, all clear indicators of a system in need of reform. There currently exists uncertainty into which direction the US will pivot, if it does, and if the nation will implement aggressive tariffs on imports in an attempt to "bring industry home."

The point of outlining these issues is not to sound the pessimistic bells of doom and gloom without a proposal for solution, but to acknowledge that tangible issues which disproportionately affect the economy, and by extension the youth labor market, exist.

The US has many tools at its disposal, but internal pressures and complicated, occasionally conflicting agendas within the nation make it the least predictable of the big three economies. The exact shape of US economic policy post-2024 presidential election is not yet clear, though markets appear initially optimistic, with November 2024 being the most successful month of the year for the S&P 500. The returning president's rhetoric indicates he plans to implement tariffs, though of what exact depth and scale is unsure.

China's shocking 20% youth unemployment rate is terrifying on the nose, and though the country struggles to fill this gap, the tools and political will to fix this issue appear eminently present. China's transition to a mixed service-manufacturing juggernaut has not been without road bumps, but the end result is a powerful economic engine. Public indications from the highest levels of the Chinese government indicate awareness of the unemployment issue and interest in providing "high quality jobs" to the upcoming generation of young Chinese citizens, which historically signals China has prioritized the issue. Though China currently has the highest youth unemployment rate among Germany, the US, and itself, an abundance of manufacturing infrastructure, growing ties to Global South nations as import/export partners, repeated emphasis on the real economy, massive domestic markets, and a political will to combat unemployment oddly simultaneously position China as the country with perhaps the brightest economic outlook of the "big three" in the near future.

Despite having the lowest youth unemployment rate of all EU nations at 6.9% (much stronger than the disheartening EU average of 15.2%), Germany faces tangible threats to its overall economic future. Germany faces perhaps the least optimistic outcome of the three largest economies - potentially bereft of a core manufacturing "real economy" built on automobiles. Germany, like much of the rest of Europe, must pivot. A regression to a second-world manufacturing economy is possible, but the economic hardship and tangible damage this would inflict upon its citizens make this proposition untenable. For Germany and much of the rest of the EU, the question is not merely about improving youth employment, but salvaging and transforming their economies on a very short timeline.

The elephant in the room when discussing youth employment is the fundamental reshaping of international economic policy and associated risks as the world moves into a mature stage of economic globalism. Tempting as it may be to argue that we should move away from this globalist paradigm, the blunt truth is that this genie simply cannot be put back in the bottle. Developed nations have become accustomed to prices reliant on inexpensive manufacturing in less developed nations. The implementation of blanket tariffs on manufacturer client states may sound good superficially, but when we look at the practicum, forcing a 300% increase in manufacturing costs (a realistic number given the general disparity between manufacturing costs) due to relocation to another nation effectively equals at least a 300% increase put directly on consumers (imagine all shoes triple in price overnight). Without mincing words, this would be an unmitigated disaster. Inflation, cost of living, and the very sanctity of the currency in question would be subject to collapse as wealth is destroyed en masse and people become unable to afford basic goods.

We unfortunately live in a time of great upheaval, both social and economic. Changes throughout the world, along with possible impending global economic collapse, have put tremendous pressure on the existent system.