AutoTrends Weekly

Chinese cities with vehicle purchase restrictions encouraged to relax these limits   

• On Jun. 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and other government departments issued a notice on measures for creating new consumption scenarios and cultivating consumption growth points. 

• The document proposes expanding new consumption scenarios for automobiles and encouraging cities with vehicle purchase restrictions to relax these limits and issue more vehicle purchase quotas. 

• It also advocates for joint efforts between central finance and local governments to allocate funds to support the scrapping and renewal of eligible old vehicles. Eligible local governments are encouraged to support vehicle trade-ins and replacements. 

• The measures also aim to expand the scope of comprehensive electrification of public vehicles in pilot zones. Pilot applications for vehicle-road-cloud integration for intelligent vehicles will also be launched. (ce.cn, Jun. 25)

Future of the auto industry worth 104 million units by 2030

• The auto industry, encompassing PV, LCV, and MHCV, size is projected to grow from 88 million units in 2024 and is projected to hit 104 million units by 2030, at a CAGR of 2.4%, according to a new report by Markets and Markets.

• The auto industry's growth is influenced by various factors such as the adoption of EVs, the development and manufacturing of long-range batteries, the installation of fast and ultra-fast charging points, the introduction of autonomous vehicles, the deployment of 5G connectivity, and trends related to shared mobility.

• The number of level 3 autonomous vehicles is projected to grow at a CAGR of 86.5% between 2023 and 2030. The level 4 autonomous vehicle market is expected to experience limited commercial growth, primarily in select markets. (Markets and Markets, Jun. 28)

Chinese carmakers to possess 33% market share by 2030

• Chinese branded carmakers are expected to take up 33% of the overall global market share by 2030 according to a report by international consulting firm AlixPartners, financial news outlet Cailian Press reported on Jun. 28.

• The sales volume of Chinese-branded vehicles in the overseas markets is expected to grow from 3 million units this year to 9 million units by 2030. This means its market share abroad will grow from 3% to 13% by the end of 2030.

• Chinese-branded vehicles perform outstandingly in the Russian market, with market share aiming to boom from 33% presently, to 69% by 2030.

• Chinese brands are predicted to also be strong in the European market, and market share is expected to grow from 6% presently to 12% by 2030. (Cailian Press, Jun. 29)

Global ride-sharing market is forecasted to reach $85.1 billion by 2028

• The global ride-sharing market is forecasted to reach $85.1 billion by 2028, growing at a robust CAGR of 16.4% from 2022 to 2028, according to a recent report from Report Ocean.

• Ride-sharing apps require internet access for users to book rides, navigate routes, and access additional information services, driving market expansion.

• Escalating fuel prices, alongside rising expenses for vehicle financing, insurance, registration, and maintenance, have made personal vehicle ownership economically burdensome. Stringent pollution control regulations further contribute to the challenges of owning a personal vehicle, prompting consumers to opt for more cost-effective ride-sharing alternatives. (Report Ocean, Jun. 26)

Autonomous car rules advancing faster than the vehicles themselves

• Safety concerns and the cost of developing next-level systems have slowed down progress on autonomous vehicles, but work on regulations is motoring ahead, said the UN.

• New UN regulations for driver control assistance systems were adopted in February and would come into force in September, said Richard Damm, chair of the Working Party on Automated/Autonomous and Connected Vehicles. 

• Furthermore, "we are planning to have a globally harmonized regulation on ADS ready for mid-2026", he said.

• Regulations for EVs were ready before they hit the market, and the framework is also now in place for hydrogen vehicles, should the industry move towards mass production, said GRVA secretary Francois Guichard. (AFP, Jun. 26)

Study finds self-driving cars are safer than humans in many (but not all) situations

• A University of Central Florida team gathered 2,100 reports of accidents involving self-driving cars and compared them against 35,000 reports of incidents involving human drivers compiled by the California Highway Patrol. 

• Their results suggest that in most situations, autonomous vehicles are safer than humans.

• Autonomous vehicles were roughly half as likely to be involved in a rear-end accident and just one-fifth as likely to be involved in a broadside collision.

• The researchers also found that the chance of a self-driving vehicle crashing in rain or fog was roughly a third of that for a human driver, which they put down to the vehicles' reliance on radar sensors that are largely immune to bad weather. (Singularity Hub, Jun. 24)

Toyota to launch first EV with advanced self-driving system for China in 2025

• Toyota is planning to launch the first electric car model equipped with an advanced autonomous driving system similar to Tesla's full self-driving for the Chinese market next year, one of its Chinese joint ventures said.

• GAC Toyota said it would launch the Bozhi 3X SUV next year as the first model to be equipped with the system that would enable advanced driving assistance for parking and navigation on highways and urban traffic. 

• GAC Toyota is developing the system with Momenta Global, a startup that develops autonomous driving software for automakers including Mercedes-Benz.

• It also works with Huawei to use the latter's in-vehicle operating software starting with an electric sedan to be launched in 2025 for China. (Reuters, Jun. 28)