CCAP国际知名学者讲座第181期
报告人简介
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe is Research Professor and Director of the Center for Global Trade Analysis (GTAP) at Purdue University. His research focuses in analyzing economic policies of a global nature such as multilateral trade agreements and climate change and is an expert on global computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. His policy work has included analyzing agricultural support policies in the OECD countries, the Uruguay Round agreement and the proposed Doha Agenda, international migration, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, the Belt and Road Initiative, the Trump-administration initiated trade wars, carbon mitigation policies, the economic impacts of climate change, carbon border adjustment measures, the immediate impacts of the Covid pandemic and post-pandemic adjustments of global value chains. He is the developer of the MANAGE single-country CGE model, the ENVISAGE global CGE model, the standard GTAP Model in GAMS global CGE model and is currently working on a version of the latter that incorporates sub-regional economies such as the U.S. states. He also has significant experience in data reconciliation methods for databases used as inputs to CGE models. Prior to joining Purdue University in 2014, he worked at the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (1988-1998), the World Bank (1998-2011), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2011-2014). He has an undergraduate degree in mathematics from the Université Catholique de Louvain in Belgium and a PhD in economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
报告内容
The world has made huge progress in its ability to feed the world over the last 5 decades despite the huge growth in population and incomes. Notwithstanding this progress, there is still a significant portion of the global population that faced hunger in 2022, between 700-800 million according to the FAO, and a large number also experienced a shortage of micro-nutrients with health and growth impacts. Many countries also face another challenge—overweight and obesity, with associated negative health consequences. WHO estimates that over 2.5 billion adults are overweight, with nearly 900 million living with obesity. The overall positive picture, with its caveats, has had many negative externalities—stress on water quality and availability, land degradation, loss of biodiversity and a significant share of the global emissions of greenhouse gases. If the world continues to produce food for a growing population, with rising incomes, as in the past, these negative externalities will intensify—perhaps leading to some negative tipping points, at least at a regional level. This talk explores three potential futures—a business-as-usual scenario with food demand driven by historical trends, a scenario with a radical shift in diets, particularly a broad swing from meat-based proteins to vegetable alternatives, and a third scenario that combines the diet shift with improvements to the entire agri-food processing chain—with greater productivity and reductions in food loss and waste. The talk will discuss the main findings from simulations with the ENVISAGE global dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The work is part of a larger multi-model comparison exercise sponsored by the EAT-Lancet Commission with participation from a total of 10 modeling teams from around the world that are part of the Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP).
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