CCAP国际知名学者讲座第178期
Dynamics of Global Emission Permit Prices and Regional Social Cost of Carbon under Noncooperation
报 告 人：蔡拥阳 教授（俄亥俄州立大学）
报告时间：2024年7月17日 星期三 10:00-12:00
报告地点：北京大学王克桢楼508会议室
报告人简介
蔡拥阳，俄亥俄州立大学教授，斯坦福大学和复旦大学博士。曾在斯坦福大学和芝加哥大学任职。主要从事气候变化经济学、计算经济学、经济及多系统综合建模、资源与环境经济学等研究工作。开创了多个数值求解动态随机一般均衡及动态随机非合作博弈的方法，并应用于解决经济学动态随机系统中的最优或博弈问题，例如在经济及气候风险和不确定性下的碳定价问题。当前研究还包括建立动态区域经济、食物、能源、水资源等系统综合建模分析。研究成果发表于Journal of Political Economy, Journal of the European Economic Association, Quantitative Economics, JAERE, JEEM, PNAS, Nature Climate Change, Operations Research等著名期刊。主持参与了多项重大项目。2021年荣获著名的环境与资源经济学的Erik Kempe奖。
报告内容
We build a dynamic multi-region model of climate and economy with emission permit trading among 12 aggregated regions in the world. We solve for the dynamic Nash equilibrium under noncooperation, wherein each region adheres to the emission cap constraints following commitments that were first outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement and updated in subsequent years. Our model shows that the emission permit price reaches $811 per ton of carbon by 2050. We demonstrate that a regional carbon tax is complementary to the global cap-and-trade system, and the optimal regional carbon tax is equal to the difference between the regional marginal abatement cost and the permit price. We build a dynamic multi-region model of climate and economy with emission permit trading among 12 aggregated regions in the world. We solve for the dynamic Nash equilibrium under noncooperation, wherein each region adheres to the emission cap constraints following commitments that were first outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement and updated in subsequent years. Our model shows that the emission permit price reaches $811 per ton of carbon by 2050. We demonstrate that a regional carbon tax is complementary to the global cap-and-trade system, and the optimal regional carbon tax is equal to the difference between the regional marginal abatement cost and the permit price.
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