讲座预告 | 英属哥伦比亚大学Richard Ralph Barichello教授学术报告

财富   2024-08-28 17:03   北京  

CCAP国际知名学者讲座第179期

Are milk quota prices a rational investment? Modeling quotas as financial assets


报  告  人:Richard Ralph Barichello 教授

               (英属哥伦比亚大学)

主  持  人:黄季焜 教授

报告时间:202492日 星期一 10:30-12:00

              Monday, Sep. 2nd, 10:30-12:00 AM

报告地点:北京大学王克桢楼107教室

在线直播:蔻享平台(扫码注册观看)




报告人简介

Richard Ralph Barichello is a Professor (Food and Resource Economics) at the University of British Columbia, working there since his PhD (University of Chicago). He was Head of the UBC Department of Agricultural Economics 1988-1994, and Director of the Center for Southeast Asia Research (UBC Institute of Asian Research) 2007-13 and 2016-18. He was Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Asian Research Institute, National University of Singapore, and Visiting Professor at Yale, Stanford, Harvard, University of California-Davis, Leuven (Belgium), and ISEAS in Singapore.
He worked for the Harvard Institute for International Development in Jakarta 1986-1988, and subsequently on various development projects in Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, China, Cambodia, Korea, Poland, and Ethiopia. This included farm-level field work focused on agricultural projects in Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Ethiopia.
He was President of the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society and awarded the designation of Fellow of that Society in 2008. In 2015 he was named to the Executive Committee of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, and elected IATRC Chair for three years, 2016-2018.
His research has concerned the economic analysis of public policy, particularly trade and agricultural policies and institutions, Canadian dairy quota markets, and a variety of agricultural development issues, mostly in Southeast Asia. This development work focuses on trade policy, domestic farm policies, world food markets, rural labour markets, agricultural productivity, the evaluation of investment projects, and food security.




报告内容

The article “Are milk quota prices a rational investment? Modeling quotas as financial assets.” had published in the Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics. The authors are Richard R. Barichello, James Vercammen, and Benjamin Zammit-Maempel. 

DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12369

Our objective in this paper is to examine the growth of the price of farm milk quo- tas in Canada, to shed light on their patterns of growth within the last 15 years. Our quota price model is based on the Gordon growth model, supplemented by some important characteristics of the milk quota market. Our explanatory variables include the quota rental price, interest rate, and expectations of both price and quantity growth, all for the province of Alberta over the 2009–2023 time period. Our economic model of quota prices performs well by giving results with the predicted signs for all variables in our model and high levels of statis- tical significance except for expectations of quantity allocations when entered separately. The model has two variants, one with the expectation of growth in quota rents and the other with the expectation of growth in the quota asset price. Econometric issues related to time series problems are dealt with. The model allows calculation of policy risk, which shows an interesting pattern over this time period.


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