Structural Change and Declining Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
Time: 9:00 am- 10:30 am, Nov. 15th, 2024
Speaker: Douglas Gollin
(Tufts University)
Platform: Zoom
Meeting ID: 994 5991 6531
Passcode: inse
Abstract:
Smallholder yields of annual food crops in six sub-Saharan African countries have been declining over the past fifteen years. We use detailed longitudinal input-output data from roughly 30000 farming households to understand this pattern. We find no persuasive evidence that this secular decline in yields is a consequence of changes in rainfall, temperature, floods or droughts associated with climate change. We also find no evidence that the decline can be attributed to unrest or civil violence. Instead, we suggest that the decline in yields can be understood as an efficient – and normatively positive – outcome of reductions in the quality of land and the quantity and intensity of labor inputs used in farming. The declines in labor input and crop yields appear to be driven by increased off-farm productivity, inducing structural transformation and the reallocation of relatively high productivity labor and land to non-agricultural production.
Speaker:
Douglas Gollin is the Jason P. and Chloe Epstein Professor of Economics at Tufts University. His research focuses broadly on economic development and growth, with an emphasis on the structural transformations that accompany the growth process. He has particular interests in agricultural productivity and technology, from a micro scale to macro scale. His work has also looked at rural-urban mobility and urbanization processes, spatial patterns of development and a range of other topics.
Professor Gollin joined Tufts in September 2023 after spending eleven years at Oxford University, initially as Professor of International Development and subsequently as Professor of Economics. He previously spent sixteen years on the faculty of Williams College, from 1996-2012. Professor Gollin currently serves as Research Director for a major global program of academic research on Structural Transformation and Economic Growth (STEG), funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office. From 2012-17, he chaired the Standing Panel on Impact Assessment (SPIA) of the CGIAR and served on the CGIAR Independent Science and Partnership Council. He also serves on the Research Advisory Group for the United Kingdom's aid program.
Professor Gollin holds an A.B. degree from Harvard University and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Minnesota in 1996. He has published in numerous academic journals including Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Science, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Urban Economics, and American Journal of Agricultural Economics. He is a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD).
推荐阅读
11.8｜A Theory of Opium as the Cause of the Great Divergence 11.8 Seminar｜Immigration and Prices 10.25｜Assortative Matching and Wages: The Role of Selection 10.18 Seminar｜Measuring Market Power from Patents Robots, Tools, and Jobs: Evidence from Brazilian Labor Markets Firm Quality Dynamics and Slippery Slope of Credit Intervention 9.20 Seminar｜The Mandarin Model of Growth 北京大学新结构经济学研究院2024秋季学期新结构经济学Workshop时间安排
