Workers love Donald Trump. Unions should fear him
The Economist
According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, 29 work stoppages involving more than 1,000 employees each began between January and November (the total in 2023 was 33, the most since 2000). The National Labour Relations Board (NLRB), the federal agency tasked with resolving labour disputes, says petitions to hold a vote to unionise are up by more than a quarter compared with last year.
America’s unions are asserting themselves in other ways, too. United Steelworkers loudly opposed the purchase of US Steel, a rustbelt icon, by Nippon Steel, a Japanese competitor (both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have committed themselves to blocking the deal). This month a court blocked the merger of Kroger and Albertsons, two big grocers, putting some weight behind the Federal Trade Commission’s argument that the deal could weaken the hand of union workers, as well as raise prices. Despite—or perhaps because of—all this action, unions’ approval ratings are at their highest since the 1960s, according to polling from Gallup.
What will Mr Trump’s second term mean for this momentum? American conservatism is certainly edging closer to the country’s workers. Mr Trump has promised “historic co-operation between business and labour”. Yet his inauguration is also likely to bring unprecedented cosiness between the White House and billionaires such as Elon Musk. The populists and plutocrats who make up Mr Trump’s uneasy coalition have vastly different ideas about the future of the labour movement. American workers, unions and industry cannot help being caught in the middle.
Unions have notched some early wins. After the 2016 election, Mr Trump horrified organised labour when he nominated Andrew Puzder, a fast-food boss, as labour secretary. (Mr Puzder later withdrew.) This time he tapped Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a pro-union congresswoman. “It shows that he considers those interests a part of his coalition,” says Oren Cass of American Compass, a conservative think-tank. Sean O’Brien, boss of the Teamsters, who addressed the Republican convention in July, praised the choice. Some free-market conservatives are “losing their minds” over it, Mr Cass says.
Other company kept by Mr Trump, however, is cause for picket-line panic. Mr Musk, who has been chosen to run a new Department of Government Efficiency, is a threat to organised labour. He has resisted unionisation at Tesla, his electric-vehicle company, which has helped it best the legacy carmakers of Detroit. Along with Amazon, Mr Musk’s firms have challenged the authority of the NLRB in court.
There are more reasons to expect a decline in union power. The conditions of high inflation and near-full employment that gave leverage to striking workers during Mr Biden’s term have softened. Few think Mr Trump’s picks to lead antitrust authorities will be as keen as their predecessors to consider workers’ interests when assessing deals. “Whether the labour secretary will have any influence within the White House remains to be seen. She would have to go through layers of advisers to the president to get anything done, and they will be very unsupportive of labour,” says Thomas Kochan, a professor of industrial relations at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Talkin’ bout a revolution
America’s dockers are already testing the strength of Mr Trump’s pro-worker rhetoric. The port strike was stopped in October when workers agreed to a pay rise of more than 60%. But unions and port operators are still at loggerheads over automation, with a deadline of January 15th for a deal. Whatever the efficiency gains automation might bring America’s plodding ports, a strike would cost the economy dearly. After meeting union bosses last week, Mr Trump has, for now, backed the dockers. Knowing “just about everything there is to know” about the subject, automating ports isn’t worth the cost to society, he declared on Truth Social, his online megaphone.
Not all unions, however, can count on the same support. “I think there’s going to be a lot more attention paid to the concerns and issues raised by unions in manufacturing sectors,” says an official from the first Trump administration. Much of the growth in union activity, though, is coming from workers in service industries. Baristas at Starbucks are one example. Workers at Amazon, who Mr O’Brien says are treated in an “un-American” way by the company, are another.
To secure Mr Trump’s favour, unions may have to adapt politically. Many have taken to championing views on topics irrelevant to the livelihoods of those they represent. Earlier this year, for example, a coalition of unions demanded cessation of military aid to Israel. They will need to rein in their campaigning.
After all, wooing workers and courting unions are not necessarily the same thing. J.D. Vance, the incoming vice-president, and Marco Rubio, the presumptive secretary of state, both of whom are currently senators, have introduced a bill that includes provisions for direct worker representation on corporate boards to bypass “big labour”. America’s unions should brace for competition. ■
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