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The Economist
The World Ahead
Nov 20th 2024 | 450 words | ★★★☆☆
Until very recently, China’s young people, investors, consumers and creators flocked to just four cities: Beijing, the capital; Shanghai, a financial hub; Shenzhen, a tech centre; and Guangzhou, an export powerhouse. With giant populations, superior public services and gleaming infrastructure, these were dubbed “first-tier” cities by the government. But in 2025 China’s smaller cities will start to steal their thunder.
First-tier cities are losing their lustre. They have become unaffordable for most Chinese: median house prices are typically 30-40 times higher than median incomes. They also have a poor quality of life, with many companies demanding a ”996” work schedule (9am-9pm, six days a week). Underpaid and overworked, their residents are spending less amid China’s economic slump. Profits in Beijing’s restaurant sector fell by nearly 90% in the first half of 2024.
Many second- or third-tier cities, meanwhile, are on the up. Their infrastructure is top-notch, housing is relatively cheap and the pace of work is more relaxed. Their economic growth often outpaces the national average. And by Western standards, they are still giants: many have populations of over 10m, and are still growing rapidly. Beijing and Shanghai, by contrast, are now shrinking.
In 2025 it will be consumers in smaller cities who will keep businesses afloat. With lower living costs, they can afford to splash out. Little wonder that coffee shops and electric-car dealers are springing up on smaller cities’ streets. Yum China, which operates kfc, a fast-food chain, plans to add several thousand new outlets by 2026, more than half of them in smaller cities.
In the coming year smaller cities will attract more young people. Surveys suggest that white-collar workers are increasingly sick of the tier-one grind. In the summer 12m students will graduate from China’s universities. Many will look for jobs, not in Beijing and Shanghai, but in cities like Changsha and Nanjing—provincial capitals with vibrant cultural industries. Both are attracting lots of livestreamers, musicians and artists.
Talented young people will help China’s smaller cities make technological progress, too. Take Hefei, a former backwater in eastern China’s Anhui province. Thanks to government investment and private enterprise, it now has a thriving tech sector, with industries like high-end manufacturing, biotech and semiconductors. In the coming year officials will focus on developing its “low-altitude economy”, China’s preferred term for delivery drones and flying taxis.
Smaller cities can offer a more relaxed political atmosphere, too. Chengdu, a city in the south-west, is known for its teahouses, laid-back lifestyle and counter-cultural music. It is increasingly drawing liberal-minded young people from first-tier cities. Behind closed doors, some may air grievances about how the country is run. That is one area, though, where the supremacy of the capital, Beijing, remains unchallenged. ■
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