特朗普当选下一任美国总统！确认选举结果后，左派媒体炸锅了，都说这是一场灾难。这次众多民调也错得离谱。这里不得不说，我真的预测到了川普会赢！
So Trump is the next president of the United States. Liberal media is freaking out, calling this a disaster (灾难). The polls were horribly off (错得离谱)…again, but I actually predicted (预测) a Trump win!
How did this happen? 那这到底是怎么发生的呢？
这次有7个州对选举结果尤为重要，也就是“摇摆州”。它们分别是：威斯康星州、密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州、北卡罗来纳州、乔治亚州、亚利桑那州、内华达州。
This election, there were 7 states that were most important, i.e. the swing states (摇摆州): Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
哈里斯胜选最直接的途径就是赢得三个“蓝墙州”——威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州和密歇根州。
Harris’ most direct path to victory was winning the “blue wall states” of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
哈里斯实际表现怎么样呢？And how did Harris do?
特朗普不只赢得了所有摇摆州，还在普选票数上大获全胜。虽然后者“不重要”，但还是进一步证明了特朗普今年得到了巨大支持（或者说美国人对民主党执政的巨大不满）。
Not only did Trump win ALL the swing states, but he also dominated the popular vote. Even though (虽然、尽管) that “doesn’t matter,” it’s further proof of Trump’s immense support this year (or Americans’ immense dissatisfaction with the Democrat party).
（想托福口语冲刺到25+， 快扫扫以上二维码）
What went wrong? 哈里斯咋了？
哈里斯几乎在每一处的表现都不如拜登。一般认为共和党支持者大多分布在农村地区，但这次城市地区也大面积地倒向特朗普。
Harris UNDERPERFORMED compared to Biden almost EVERYWHERE. People say that Republicans are mostly in rural (农村) areas, but urban areas swung MASSIVELY for Trump.
纽约市的移民危机和经济下行，使得特朗普在皇后区、布朗克斯区获得了大批拥护者。
In New York City, the migrant crisis and weak economy made it so that Trump gained HUGE followings in Queens, Bronx, etc.
在族裔背景方面，亚裔和拉丁裔的变化尤为明显。与2020年相比，支持特朗普的拉丁裔男性增加了18个百分点；支持特朗普的亚裔增加了5个百分点。
Looking at how different ethnicities voted, Asian and Latino voters had some pretty significant changes. Compared to 2020, Latino men went +18% for Trump. And Trump's support among Asian Americans increased by over 5%!
Total Voting Numbers vs. 2020 投票总数与2020年对比
有人认为民主党支持者没有拿出实际行动去投票。2020年，全国共有一亿五千五百万张选票，其中八千一百万张投给了拜登，七千四百万张投给了特朗普。
People say Democrats just didn’t come out to vote. In 2020, there were 155,000,000 votes (81m for Biden, 74m for Trump)
那最开始很多人都是这么说的，但是大家忽略的就是第一个晚上能看到的数据跟最终的结果差距非常大。川普已经7600万张票（比他2020年的票数多），哈里斯目前已经快7400万了（可能会超过川普2020年的票数）。
Initially, a lot of people were saying this, but they ignored the fact that on election night, we still have a lot of ballots to count, and the total is very different from what you have that day. Trump is already at 76 million votes (more than he got in 2020), and Kamala is almost 74 million (and she might beat Trump's 2020 vote count).
但事实上，如果我们看最重要的摇摆州的数据，投票率都破纪录了
BUT ACTUALLY, the most important places, Swing States, hit record numbers!
如果她在这些州里获得和拜登2020年相同的票数，她还是会数！因为川普也多拿了很多选票，（反正哈里斯就是完蛋了）
If she got the same amount of votes in those states as Biden, she still would’ve lost because of how many MORE people vote for Trump (Kamala Screwed Anyway)
Left vs. Right Media 左派媒体 vs 右派媒体
最受欢迎的政治类播客和非传统主流媒体几乎都是右倾的
Top Political Podcasts & non-mainstream media are almost all right-leaning
右派一直在宣传“袭卷投票箱”，意思是只要投给特朗普的票数多到一定程度，即使民主党在选举中舞弊也拿不到足够的票数胜选。
Conservative messaging of “SWAMP the vote,” which means to overwhelm voting so much that even if the Democrats cheated, they wouldn’t be able to get enough votes.
左倾媒体只是一直强调特朗普差劲、老迈，而且不管怎么样他都没戏了。
Left-leaning media just kept telling people that Trump was bad, senile, and he was screwed anyway.
这是不是导致左派的选民过于自满？同时给了右派选民更大的动力？这种可能性是存在的…我认为确实如此。
Did that lead to voter complacency on the left? And energize the right? Potentially… I think so.
What People REALLY Care About 那美国老百姓到底关心的是什么？
说到底，老百姓首先考虑的是自身。他们现在感受到的就是和四年前比，自己的生活变差了。我可以另写一篇进一步讨论下政府决策如何影响经济以及政策生效需要的时间。
Ultimately, people are PRIMARILY focused on themselves. And they feel like they are worse off now than they were four years ago. We can go into how decisions affect the economy and how long it takes another day.
但民主党没能说服老百姓他们有能力解决问题、提升人民的生活。很多人并不一定喜欢特朗普，但还是选择把票投给他，就是因为他们更相信特朗普能够带来一些改变。
But Democrats weren’t able to convince people that they would be able to fix it. Many people who don’t necessarily like Trump still voted for him because they had greater confidence that he’d be able to bring about change.
______
想说话更有逻辑、托福口语突破到25分+，我新的托福口语冲刺计划很快就上线了！
🎬 10节核心理论课：掌握托福口语要点、答题结构和高分模板。
📚 80节实战练习课：分析每种题型的满分答案。（模版、句型、表达、发音）
🎯 答题公式：简单易用的高分结构。
📜 高分词汇清单和小抄：用这些词汇和地道表达提升分数。
🎧 可下载音频文件：练习地道发音和语音节奏。
🗣️ 发音技巧：让你的发音更自然
扫下方二维码或点击【阅读原文】就可以报名啦！
