瑞银的这篇报告像是一份面向未来的财富管理指南，无论你关注的是如何提升资产收益，分散风险，还是探索新兴领域的机会，或者是希望探索更具前瞻性的投资领域，这篇文章都能为你带来启发。
通过全局视角与详实的数据洞察，这篇万字报告能帮助你把握复杂市场中的真正机会。希望你在阅读后找到适合自己的财富增长路径！
Economic outlook
In our base case, we expect sustained economic growth in the US, supported by healthy consumption, loose fiscal policy, and lower interest rates. Tariff threats are a headwind for Asia and Europe. If imposed, they could be partially offset by reactive stimulus measures in China. We expect growth in Europe to modestly improve as interest rates fall.
US: Slower but solid
Over the past two years, the US economy has defied expectations that higher interest rates would provoke a sharp slowdown. In 2024, nonfarm payroll growth averaged 170,000 per month, and GDP growth estimates point to a 2.7% rate for the full year.
In the year ahead, we expect US economic growth to slow somewhat but remain close to 2%. We believe many of the key factors that have sustained US economic growth in recent years are likely to persist.
经济展望
根据我们的基准预测，美国经济将在健康的消费支撑、宽松的财政政策和较低的利率环境下持续增长。对于亚洲和欧洲来说，关税威胁可能成为一个不利因素。如果这些关税政策落地，中国可能会通过刺激措施进行一定程度的应对。另外随着利率下降，欧洲经济增长预计会出现小幅改善。
美国：增速放缓但仍保持稳健
过去两年，美国经济表现出强大的韧性，虽然利率上升，但并未出现预期中的大幅放缓。2024年，美国非农就业每月平均增加17万个，全年GDP增长率预计达到2.7%。
展望2025年，美国经济增速可能略有放缓，但仍会维持在接近2%的水平。支撑美国经济增长的关键因素，如稳定的消费需求和政策支持，预计仍将持续发挥作用。
Strong incomes support spending
Strong income growth is enabling consumers to increase spending while maintaining decent savings rates. This suggests that consumption can stay robust, provided the labor market remains healthy. Unemployment has started to rise but remains low by historical standards.
We also expect inflation to keep falling, even if selective tariffs contribute to a one-off increase in some prices. US goods prices have been in deflation for the past three years, while stubbornly high shelter prices are easing. In our view, the Fed is likely to look past tariff-induced price increases and will cut interest rates by a further 100bps during 2025, bringing rates close to our estimate of neutral (3.25-3.50%) by the end of the year. Lower rates should ease pressure on indebted households and businesses, and improve conditions in interest-rate-sensitive parts of the economy.
Tax cuts and deregulation under President Trump may further bolster the US economy.
Risks to watch
We are monitoring potential risks. While we do not believe selective tariffs on US imports from other countries are sufficient to derail US growth, blanket tariffs would increase the risk of US stagflation.
We expect US economic growth to slow slightly but remain close to 2%.
Limits on migration introduced in mid-2024, and potential future limits on migrant labor supply, are likely to mean slower labor supply growth. This could cause inflation to remain more stubborn than expected and could limit overall GDP growth.
We also note that US fiscal policy is unsustainable over the long term. We expect a budget deficit in excess of 6% in 2025 for the fourth consecutive year. We do not expect any major measures to address the deficit to be introduced in the near term, and there is a risk that higher long-term borrowing costs weigh on US growth.
收入增长支撑消费
稳健的收入增长使消费者能够在保持较高储蓄率的同时增加支出。这表明，只要就业市场保持健康，消费需求就有望持续强劲。虽然失业率有所上升，但仍处于历史低位。
我们预计通胀将继续下降，即使某些关税政策可能导致部分商品价格短期内出现一次性上涨。过去三年，美国商品价格实际上处于通缩状态，而高企的住房价格也正在逐步回落。在我们看来，美联储可能会忽略因关税导致的价格波动，预计将在2025年进一步降息100个基点，将利率降至接近“中性水平”（3.25%-3.50%）。更低的利率将缓解负债家庭和企业的压力，并改善对利率敏感的经济领域的状况。（这里注意：12月23日瑞银调整了美联储降息预测，预计2025年美国只会再降息50个基点。）
此外，在特朗普的政策下，税收减免和放松监管可能会进一步提振美国经济。
需要关注的风险
虽然我们认为针对美国进口商品的选择性关税不足以显著拖累美国经济，但全面关税可能会增加经济停滞和通胀并存的风险。
2024年实施的移民限制政策，以及未来可能进一步限制移民劳动力供给的措施，可能导致劳动力增长放缓。这可能导致通胀水平比预期更难以降低，同时对整体GDP增长形成制约。
另外美国的财政政策长期来看不可持续。预计2025年的预算赤字将连续第四年超过GDP的6%。我们不认为短期内会出台重大措施来应对这一问题，但长期借贷成本上升的风险可能对美国经济增长形成拖累。
Asia: Divergence amid slower growth
We forecast slightly slower growth in Asia in 2025, with regional variations.
China: Tariff headwinds
In our base case, we anticipate the Trump administration will introduce additional selective tariffs on US imports from China, increasing the effective rate from about 10% to 30% by end-2026. In a risk scenario, a 60% blanket tariff could make much of US-China trade unviable.
However, China’s CNY 10 trillion local government debt resolution plan should help mitigate risks, and China appears ready to boost economic stimulus if needed.
We expect China’s growth to move from 4.8% in 2024 to 4.0% in 2025.
Robust growth in emerging Asia
India and Indonesia are likely to experience stronger growth due to favorable demographics and lower tariff risks. In fact, US-China tensions might actually enhance investment in other parts of Asia, bolstering infrastructure and construction activity.
Acceleration in developed Asia Pacific
We forecast Japan’s growth to accelerate to 1.1% in 2025 from -0.2% in 2024, driven by higher wages and consumption, with a Bank of Japan rate hike anticipated by mid-2025. We project Australia’s GDP to increase to 2.0% in 2025 from 1.2% in 2024, aided by fiscal measures to boost consumption and increased mineral demand for renewable energy.
亚洲：增长放缓中的分化
我们预计2025年亚洲经济增长将略有放缓，但各地区表现会有所差异。
中国：关税压力
在我们的基准预测中，特朗普政府可能会对从中国进口的商品实施更多选择性关税，将有效税率从当前的约10%逐步提高到2026年底的30%。在风险情境下，若实施60%的全面关税，大部分中美贸易将难以为继。
不过，中国政府推出的10万亿元人民币地方政府债务化解计划预计将有助于缓解风险。与此同时，中国似乎已做好必要时进一步加强经济刺激的准备。我们预计中国经济增长率将从2024年的4.8%下降至2025年的4.0%。
新兴亚洲的强劲增长
印度和印尼预计将实现更强劲的经济增长，这得益于其良好的人口结构和较低的关税风险。事实上，中美紧张局势可能为亚洲其他地区带来更多投资，推动基础设施和建筑活动的增长。
发达亚太地区的增长加速
我们预计日本经济增长将从2024年的-0.2%加速至2025年的1.1%，主要受薪资和消费增长的推动，同时日本央行预计将在2025年年中加息。澳大利亚的GDP增速预计将从2024年的1.2%上升至2025年的2.0%，得益于刺激消费的财政政策以及对可再生能源矿产需求的增加。
Europe: Uneven and subdued but stronger
In 2025, we expect Europe’s economic growth to be uneven and subdued, yet stronger than in 2024.
Trade risks
A global trade war is a potential risk for Europe in the year ahead, especially for export-oriented economies. At the same time, higher European defense spending and additional investment associated with near-shoring may support growth.
Country-level divergence
We believe Germany, France, and Italy will experience modest growth of around 1%, with structural challenges and fiscal constraints limiting growth. We expect Spain, the UK, and Switzerland to outperform, with growth rates of approximately 2.3%, 1.5%, and 1.3%, respectively.
Fiscal and manufacturing headwinds
Tight fiscal budgets are constraining public spending and limiting the ability of governments to stimulate their economies through public investment. The manufacturing sector is also under pressure due to weak demand from China.
Consumer and monetary support
Despite these challenges, we expect high recent savings rates and rising real incomes to boost consumer spending as inflation declines. Furthermore, we expect further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank to support corporate investment.
欧洲：增长缓慢但逐步改善
2025年，欧洲经济增速预计仍将较为缓慢且不均衡，但整体表现会优于2024年。
贸易风险
全球贸易战可能成为未来一年欧洲面临的主要风险，尤其是对那些以出口为主的经济体。然而，欧洲不断增加的国防开支以及与本地化生产相关的投资，可能在一定程度上缓解这一压力，为经济增长提供支撑。
各国表现分化
我们预计德国、法国和意大利的经济增速将在1%左右，增长受限于结构性问题和财政约束。相比之下，西班牙、英国和瑞士的表现可能更为出色，预计增长率分别达到2.3%、1.5%和1.3%。
财政紧缩和制造业压力
欧洲各国普遍面临紧张的财政预算，这限制了公共支出，并削弱了通过政府投资刺激经济的能力。此外，来自中国的需求疲软，也给欧洲的制造业带来了不小的压力。
消费与货币政策的支撑
虽然存在这些不利因素，高储蓄率和实际收入的增长将提振消费者支出，尤其是在通胀回落的背景下。此外，我们预计欧洲央行、英格兰银行和瑞士国家银行将进一步降息，这将为企业投资创造更有利的条件。
What will President Trump mean for markets?
A Trump presidency, coupled with Republican control of Congress, has the potential to reshape the global economic and geopolitical landscape. Key policy areas in focus for investors include tariffs, fiscal policy, deregulation, and monetary policy.
Economic implications
Trade: Selective and bilateral tariffs likely
Tariffs—particularly the mooted blanket 60% on Chinese imports and 10% on others—pose the most significant global economic risk. Given potential legal and Congressional challenges, we think that the Trump administration is more likely to implement bilateral and selective tariffs. Such tariffs are likely to contribute to volatility for European and Chinese markets, but in our base case we do not believe they would derail US growth.
Fiscal and regulatory policy: Congressional constraints?
The Trump campaign emphasized extending personal income tax cuts, reducing corporate taxes, and implementing deregulation on the financial and energy sectors. While these measures could stimulate economic activity, Congressional objections amid large federal budget deficits may limit their scope. For example, fiscal hawks in Congress might resist policies that further expand the deficit.
The Fed: Still on course for lower rates
Although tariffs could temporarily increase inflation, we believe the Federal Reserve will continue its path of rate cuts toward achieving a neutral policy stance; we anticipate 100bps of rate cuts in 2025. Nevertheless, the Fed will closely monitor factors that could have a more long-lasting impact on inflation or inflation expectations, including limitations on migration, blanket trade tariffs, or significantly looser fiscal policy.
Geopolitics: Peace through strength
A “peace through strength” approach to Trump’s foreign policy could increase volatility in a market seeking greater geopolitical stability. Initially, we expect a more confrontational approach toward China, strains in transatlantic relations, and a “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran, with a view of seeking deals to preserve US interests. At the time of writing, Polymarket prices the odds of Trump ending the Russia-Ukraine war within 90 days of taking office at 39%.
Market implications
Equities: Divergent US and international impact
For the US, we anticipate the S&P 500 reaching 6,600 by the end of 2025, driven by benign growth, lower interest rates, and AI advancements. Potential tax cuts and deregulation under a Trump administration could further support markets. Our preferred sectors include technology, utilities, and financials. While tariffs may affect tech earnings, AI infrastructure spending remains robust. Utilities may face headwinds from less government support for renewables, but demand for AI data centers should drive power demand. We expect the financial sector to benefit from deregulation.
International markets could face greater headwinds from tariffs. That said, potential stimulus in response could help mitigate the impact on China. US imports from markets like Taiwan and Korea are not easily replaceable, and most US sales by European companies are from goods and services made in the US.
Bonds: Yields rise too far?
US Treasury yields rose in anticipation of a Trump presidency. But with the Fed likely to stay on a rate-cutting path, and with plans to loosen fiscal policy facing potential Congressional constraints, we think yields are likely to fall in the year ahead. We believe investors should use currently elevated yield levels to lock in returns.
Currencies: Near-term dollar strength, longer-term weakness
The US Dollar Index has strengthened on confirmation of a Trump presidency, driven by expectations of lower taxes, higher tariffs, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. While the dollar may remain strong in the short term, we believe that the dollar is now overvalued and overstretched at current levels. The Chinese yuan is likely to remain pressured until clarity about trade tariffs emerges.
Gold: Initial sell-off, a good hedge
Gold prices sold off on confirmation of a Trump presidency, with a stronger US dollar, higher yields, and a decline in equity market volatility crimping investor demand for the metal. However, in 2025, we believe gold will remain an effective hedge against key political concerns, including government debt levels, inflation, or geopolitical tensions. We maintain our target of USD 2,900/oz by end-2025 and continue to recommend around a 5% allocation to gold as a diversifier.
特朗普当选总统对市场的影响
特朗普总统连任，加上共和党掌控国会，可能会对全球经济和地缘政治格局带来深远影响。投资者关注的核心政策领域包括关税、财政政策、去监管和货币政策。
经济影响
贸易：选择性和双边关税可能性更大
特朗普政府可能会优先实施选择性和双边关税，而非全面关税。例如，可能将对中国进口商品的关税从当前的10%提高到30%，并对其他国家实施10%的普遍关税。这些措施可能会对欧洲和中国市场带来波动，但我们认为在基准预测下，这些关税不会显著拖累美国的经济增长。
财政和监管政策：国会的潜在制约
特朗普竞选时提出了延长个人所得税减免、降低企业税和放松金融与能源行业监管的承诺。这些政策可能对经济活动产生积极影响，但由于联邦预算赤字庞大，国会可能对这些政策的规模和范围进行限制。例如，财政保守派可能反对进一步扩大赤字的政策，这可能限制部分政策的实施力度。
货币政策：美联储继续降息
虽然关税可能在短期内推高通胀，但我们预计美联储将继续降息，逐步实现中性货币政策。预计2025年降息幅度为100个基点（12月23日瑞银调整了美联储降息预测，预计2025年美国只会再降息50个基点。）。然而，美联储将密切关注可能对通胀产生长期影响的因素，例如移民限制、全面贸易关税或大规模的财政政策放松。
地缘政治：通过实力谋求和平
特朗普的外交政策可能会加剧地缘政治波动性，特别是在投资者寻求稳定的背景下。预计特朗普政府初期可能对中国采取更强硬的态度，与欧洲的跨大西洋关系面临压力，并对伊朗实施“极限施压”策略，以达成符合美国利益的协议。此外，根据预测市场 Polymarket 数据，特朗普在上任后90天内结束俄乌冲突的可能性为39%。
市场影响
股票市场：美国和国际市场的分化
我们预计标普500指数到2025年底将达到6600点，这得益于温和的经济增长、更低的利率以及人工智能领域的持续发展。特朗普政府可能推出的税收减免和去监管政策也会进一步支持市场表现。我们看好的行业包括科技、公用事业和金融业。
关税可能对科技公司的收益构成一定压力，但人工智能基础设施投资依然强劲。公用事业可能因政府对可再生能源支持的减弱而面临一定挑战，但人工智能数据中心的电力需求将成为增长的驱动力。金融业则可能因监管放松而受益。
相比之下，国际市场可能面临更多压力。例如，关税可能对中国市场构成挑战，但北京可能采取的刺激政策有望缓解部分影响。同时，美国从台湾和韩国等市场进口的关键商品短期内难以替代，大多数欧洲公司在美国的销售额也主要来自本地生产的商品和服务，这些因素可能限制关税带来的负面影响。
债券市场：收益率可能回落
特朗普当选后，美国国债收益率有所上升。但随着美联储继续降息，以及财政政策可能受到国会限制，我们预计明年债券收益率将逐步回落。我们建议投资者抓住当前收益率较高的机会锁定回报。
外汇市场：短期美元走强，长期或承压
特朗普当选确认后，美元指数因减税预期、关税上调和地缘政治不确定性增加而走强。短期内，美元可能保持强势，但我们认为当前水平已被高估，长期来看美元可能面临下行压力。人民币可能继续承压，直到贸易关税政策更加明朗。
黄金市场：初期波动，但仍是重要对冲工具
特朗普当选后，黄金价格因美元走强、收益率上升以及股票市场波动性下降而回落。然而，我们预计到2025年，黄金将继续是应对关键政治风险（如政府债务、通胀或地缘政治紧张局势）的有效对冲工具。我们维持2025年底金价2900美元/盎司的目标，建议投资者将约5%的资产配置于黄金，以实现投资组合多元化。
Our scenarios（场景预测）
How to invest?
Our messages in focus
» Position for lower rates
» More to go in stocks
» Seize the AI opportunity
» Invest in power and resources
» Sell further dollar strength
» Go for gold
» Time for real estate
建议：
1. 布局降息趋势
为未来利率下行做好准备，关注降息带来的市场机会。
2. 股票市场仍有潜力
股市仍具备进一步上涨的空间，抓住长期增长机会。
3. 把握人工智能机遇
投资于人工智能领域的发展红利，重点关注相关技术和基础设施。
4. 关注能源与资源板块
能源转型与资源需求增加将推动相关行业的投资机会。
5. 逢高抛售美元
短期美元或继续走强，但中长期可能回落，建议在高点适时减持美元资产。
6. 配置黄金
黄金仍是有效的对冲工具，可作为资产配置中的多元化选择。
7. 进入房地产市场的时机
当前可能是重新关注房地产投资的好时机，尤其是在利率下降背景下。
Position for lower rates
We expect central banks to cut interest rates further in the year ahead, reducing cash returns. We believe investment grade bonds offer attractive yields and expect mid-single-digit returns in US dollar terms. Diversified fixed income strategies and equity income strategies can also help investors sustain portfolio income.
High grade and investment grade bonds
We have a positive outlook for both high grade (government) and investment grade (IG) bonds.
After the recent increase, yields on quality bonds are once again attractive, in our view.
USD IG and EUR IG yield 5.3% and 3.2% at the time of writing. Corporate fundamentals are robust, in our view, with limited expected deterioration in credit quality. And we anticipate the global rate-cutting cycle to contribute to supportive technicals and investor inflows, helping credit spreads stay tight.
In our base case, we expect IG to deliver mid-single-digit total returns in USD, EUR, and GBP. These returns come from both yield (accounting for around two-thirds of returns) and capital appreciation (around one-third), as steepening yield curves mean investors benefit from “roll down” as bonds approach maturity.
Investment grade bonds can deliver attractive returns
布局降息趋势
我们预计各国央行将在未来一年继续降息，导致现金回报率进一步下降。在这种背景下，我们认为投资级债券提供了具有吸引力的收益率，美元计价的回报率可能达到中等个位数。此外，多元化的固定收益策略和股息收益策略也可以帮助投资者维持投资组合的收益水平。
高评级和投资级债券的前景
我们对高评级（政府债券）和投资级（IG）债券的前景持积极看法。
在近期收益率上升后，我们认为优质债券的收益率再次变得具有吸引力。目前，美元投资级债券（USD IG）的收益率为5.3%，欧元投资级债券（EUR IG）的收益率为3.2%。企业的基本面稳健，信用质量预期仅有有限的下滑风险。同时，我们预计全球降息周期将带来技术面支持和资金流入，有助于保持信用利差收紧。
在我们的基准情景下，我们预计投资级债券将在美元、欧元和英镑计价中实现中等个位数的总回报。这些回报主要来自两方面：约三分之二来自收益率，约三分之一来自资本增值，因为随着收益率曲线陡化，债券接近到期时投资者可以受益于“滚降效应”（roll down）。
投资级债券有望带来可观回报
Investment grade bonds are also appealing from a risk management perspective.
While a tariff shock is a potential risk, IG bonds should perform strongly in a hard landing scenario. In such a scenario, we would expect falls in government bond yields to more than offset higher credit spreads.
Diversified fixed income strategies
Although spreads for lower-quality credit are tight by historical standards, and we believe the risk-reward profile of investment grade bonds is more favorable, we also expect respectable absolute returns for riskier credits in the year ahead. Solid economic and corporate fundamentals should keep default rates low, and investor inflows should keep spreads tight.
As such, in a portfolio context, we think that complementing IG bonds with riskier credit (like US, EUR, and Asia high yield, emerging market bonds, or senior loans) can improve diversification and increase returns.
For investors managing single bond portfolios, we recommend a focus primarily on quality bonds but augmenting those with select investments in short- and medium-duration riskier credits. We advocate staying in liquid parts of the bond market to maintain flexibility to take advantage of new opportunities.
Target portfolio composition depends heavily on individual risk appetite, but for an investor with a moderate risk tolerance, we would typically recommend allocating 20-40% of a fixed income portfolio to sub-investment grade and emerging market credit.
Equity income strategies
Investors seeking income can also consider equity income strategies, including high dividend, dividend growth, or option premia strategies.
The MSCI AC World High Dividend Yield Index is forecast to yield 3.5-4.0% in 2025, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates, a level likely to surpass cash yields by the end of the year. Considering high-dividend yielders that have a track record of consistently growing dividends can improve income sustainability.
Options strategies, including put writing and covered-call writing, can further enhance income potential. By harvesting volatility premia, such strategies can further diversify sources of portfolio income and may be treated as capital gains (rather than income) in some jurisdictions.
We estimate mixing high dividend, dividend growth, and option strategies could deliver a total yield of around 5-7% per year.
投资级债券
从风险管理的角度来看，投资级债券同样具有吸引力。虽然关税冲击是一个潜在风险，但在经济“硬着陆”情境下，投资级债券的表现可能会非常出色。在这种情况下，我们预计政府债券收益率的下降将足以抵消信用利差的扩大。
多元化固定收益策略
低质量信用的利差按历史标准来看仍然偏窄，我们认为投资级债券的风险回报更为优越。然而，对于风险较高的信用债券，未来一年内也有望获得可观的绝对回报。稳健的经济和企业基本面将有助于维持低违约率，而投资者的资金流入将有助于保持利差收紧。
因此，在投资组合中，我们建议将投资级债券与更高风险的信用产品（如美国、欧洲和亚洲的高收益债券、新兴市场债券或优先贷款）搭配使用，以改善多元化程度并提高回报率。
对于管理单一债券投资组合的投资者，我们建议以优质债券为主，同时适当加入一些短期和中期的高风险信用债券投资。我们还主张重点关注债券市场中的流动性部分，以保持灵活性，从而抓住新的投资机会。
目标投资组合的构成高度依赖于个人的风险承受能力。对于中等风险偏好的投资者，我们通常建议将固定收益投资组合的20%-40%分配给次投资级和新兴市场信用债券。
股息收益策略
对于寻求收益的投资者，也可以考虑股息收益策略，包括高股息、股息增长或期权溢价策略。
根据彭博一致预期，MSCI AC世界高股息收益指数（MSCI AC World High Dividend Yield Index）预计在2025年提供3.5%-4.0%的收益率，这一水平可能在年底超越现金收益率。选择具有稳定增长股息记录的高股息股票，可以提升收益的可持续性。
期权策略（如卖出看跌期权或覆盖式看涨期权）还能进一步提高收益潜力。这类策略通过收取波动率溢价，不仅能为投资组合增加收入来源，还可能在某些地区被视为资本收益（而非收入）。
我们估算，将高股息、股息增长和期权策略结合使用，每年可实现约5%-7%的总收益率。
央行将降息多少？
截至撰写本文时，大多数主要经济体的利率已从近期峰值下降了50-75个基点。但即便如此，我们认为当前的利率水平仍对经济构成一定的抑制作用。
随着2025年的推进，我们预计大多数主要央行将希望将利率调整至既不刺激也不抑制经济的“中性水平”。从当前水平来看，我们预计：
1. 美联储将进一步降息50个基点；
2. 瑞士国家银行将降息50个基点；
3. 欧洲央行将降息125个基点；
4. 英格兰银行将降息100个基点。
美联储已表示，将密切关注新出台的美国政策对通胀的净影响。如果通胀风险上升，降息速度可能会放缓。
我们建议将现金和货币市场工具的持仓限制在未来一年支出需求的金额范围内。对于未来三至五年支出的资金，高质量债券和“梯形债券组合”可以帮助降低再投资和市场择时的风险。而对于未来三至五年内不需要使用的资金，我们建议投资于长期的多资产核心投资组合，以实现长期收益最大化。
More to go in stocks
After strong years for equities in 2023 and 2024, we see further upside in 2025. We expect the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by the end of 2025, around 10% higher than today’s levels. Tariffs could contribute to volatility in European and Chinese markets. But we see value in maintaining diversified exposure to Asia ex-Japan. In Europe, we like small- and mid-cap stocks and Swiss high-quality dividend payers.
We view the outlook for US equities as constructive from a macroeconomic, structural, and bottom-up perspective. The combination of resilient US growth and lower Fed rates has historically been a powerful combination for US stocks. In the past, when the Fed cut rates and the US did not enter recession, US equities rose 18% on average in the 12 months after the first Fed rate cut.
The recent earnings season demonstrates that AI capex intentions remain robust, supporting our positive outlook on US technology stocks. Earnings growth is also broadening into non-tech earnings in the US, a trend which could be further supported by US deregulation and tax cuts.
Valuations are not low in a historical context. On a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio basis, the S&P 500 currently trades at 22.3x versus a 20-year average of 16x. But we believe this valuation is justified by the healthy US economic backdrop and the high degree of exposure to structural growth.
Rate cuts support US equities without recession
股票市场仍有上行空间
在经历了2023年和2024年的强劲表现后，我们认为股票市场在2025年仍有进一步上涨的潜力。我们预计标普500指数到2025年底将达到6600点，比当前水平高约10%。尽管关税可能会加剧欧洲和中国市场的波动，但我们认为保持对亚洲（不含日本）市场的多元化敞口仍具有价值。在欧洲，我们看好小盘和中盘股票，以及瑞士的高质量股息股。
美国股票市场的前景积极
从宏观经济、结构性和基本面视角来看，我们对美国股票市场持建设性看法。美国经济的韧性和美联储降息的结合，历来是推动美国股市上涨的重要因素。历史数据显示，当美联储降息且美国经济未陷入衰退时，美股在首次降息后的12个月平均上涨18%。
近期的财报季显示，美国企业在人工智能资本支出上的意愿仍然强劲，这支撑了我们对美国科技股的乐观看法。此外，美国的非科技行业收益也在扩大，这一趋势可能会进一步受到美国去监管政策和减税措施的支持。
从估值角度来看，目前股市估值虽高于历史平均水平，但仍在合理范围内。标普500指数基于未来12个月预测的市盈率为22.3倍，而过去20年的平均值为16倍。然而，我们认为，在健康的美国经济背景和对结构性增长的高度敞口下，这一估值是合理的。
降息将支持美股增长，前提是避免经济衰退
US: AI, tech, financials, and utilities to drive further upside
We think the US equity market looks Attractive and expect the S&P 500 to hit 6,600 by the end of 2025, around 10% higher than today’s levels.
The US economic backdrop is supportive, the market is less at risk from tariffs than other international markets, and structural trends around AI and power and resources bolster the outlook. AI-related companies that span semiconductors, cloud service providers, devices, and data centers account for over one-third of the S&P 500 by market cap. We expect around 11% S&P 500 earnings per share growth in 2024 and 8% in 2025.
Within the US, we view the technology, utilities, and financials sectors as Attractive.
• Technology: AI infrastructure spending remains robust, and we expect key semiconductor components needed for AI to remain supply constrained in 2025, supporting pricing. In addition, the tech sector should benefit from an improvement in PC and smartphone end markets. The industry could face headwinds from tariffs, but we do not believe this will outweigh the structural growth story over the medium term. We see the best opportunities in AI-linked semiconductors and US megacaps.
• Utilities: Although utilities companies with high renewables exposure could face near-term pressures, we also expect significant growth in AI data centers to fuel power demand, leading to higher power prices. Roughly 20-25% of the sector has material exposure to these trends. The sector’s defensive characteristics should also offer ballast to a portfolio in case economic growth concerns rise.
• Financials: We expect Fed rate cuts to lead to lower funding costs, higher loan growth, and more capital market activity. Following the US election, we also expect the financial sector to benefit from deregulation.
Asia: Diverse growth opportunities
We find the Asia ex-Japan market Attractive overall, and expect the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index to return about 15% by the end of 2025.
While tariffs are likely to be a headwind for China, AI spending, high GDP growth, and declining US and regional interest rates should be supportive for other markets in the region.
We expect Asia ex-Japan to offer one of the most appealing earnings growth profiles globally, with a forecast of 13% earnings growth in USD for 2025.
• India: We view India’s market as Attractive. High structural rates of GDP growth are supported by favorable demographics in a domestically oriented market, and we expect 12% EPS growth in fiscal year 2025 (MSCI India) and 14% in fiscal year 2026.
Asia ex-Japan earnings growth to lead the way
Europe: Focus on Eurozone small- and mid-caps and Swiss high-quality dividends
The potential for tariffs under a Trump administration is a concern for European companies, particularly European cyclicals (like consumer discretionary and industrials) exposed to China. We expect European earnings growth to be weaker than elsewhere in the world, and expect European stocks to underperform US equities.
Nevertheless, solid economic growth, lower interest rates, and reasonable valuations should offer some support. The MSCI Europe Index trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9x. We expect total returns of around 6% by the end of 2025.
We favor beneficiaries of falling interest rates and structural growth opportunities. Eurozone small- and mid-caps and Swiss high-quality dividends are among our preferred tactical ideas in Europe.
• Eurozone small- and mid-caps: Eurozone small- and mid-caps are currently trading at a 20-year low price-to-earnings ratio compared to large caps (MSCI EMU). They should benefit from falling rates, improving lending conditions, and healthier domestic growth. In addition, they offer some exposure to structural trends, including power generation, decarbonization, and automation.
• Swiss high-quality dividends: The 3% dividend yield of the Swiss Performance Index (SPI) is higher than Swiss franc bond yields and above the 25-year historical average of 2.4%. Balance sheets and profitability are robust, in our view, suggesting that distributions are sustainable.
美国：人工智能、科技、金融和公用事业将推动进一步增长
美国经济背景良好，相较其他国际市场，受关税影响的风险较小。同时，围绕人工智能以及能源和资源的结构性趋势进一步增强了市场前景。人工智能相关企业（涵盖半导体、云服务提供商、设备和数据中心）市值占标普500总市值的三分之一以上。我们预计标普500的每股收益（EPS）将于2024年增长11%，2025年增长8%。
在美国市场中，看好以下板块：
• 科技：人工智能基础设施投资仍保持强劲。预计2025年与人工智能相关的关键半导体组件将持续供不应求，从而支持价格上涨。此外，PC和智能手机终端市场的改善也将为科技板块带来利好。关税可能带来一定阻力，但我们认为，这并不会削弱中期内科技板块的结构性增长机会。我们特别看好与人工智能相关的半导体和美国大型科技股。
• 公用事业：再生能源敞口的公用事业公司可能面临短期压力，但人工智能数据中心的快速发展将推动电力需求增长，从而带动电价上涨。约20%-25%的公用事业板块对这些趋势具有显著敞口。此外，该板块的防御性特质在经济增长放缓的情况下将为投资组合提供稳定性。
• 金融：我们预计美联储降息将降低融资成本、推动贷款增长并提升资本市场活动。此外，美国大选后，金融板块还可能受益于去监管政策的实施。
亚洲：多样化的增长机会
我们总体看好亚洲（不含日本）市场，预计MSCI亚洲（不含日本）指数到2025年底将实现约15%的回报。
尽管关税可能对中国构成压力，但人工智能支出、高GDP增长以及美国和区域利率下降将为其他市场提供支持。我们预计亚洲（不含日本）将提供全球最具吸引力的盈利增长，2025年美元计价的每股收益增长预计为13%。
• 中国：我们预计美国关税和可能的刺激政策不及预期将对中国股票构成风险。在这一背景下，我们认为防御性和高收益价值板块（如金融、公用事业、能源和电信）可能表现优于大市。对于愿意长期持有的投资者，互联网板块的回调或是一个良好的入场机会，因其增长前景和估值具有吸引力。
• 印度：我们对印度市场持乐观看法。高结构性GDP增长由良好的人口结构支撑，同时国内市场为主的特点进一步增强其韧性。预计印度MSCI指数在2025财年每股收益增长12%，2026财年增长14%。
欧洲：关注欧元区中小盘股与瑞士高质量股息股
特朗普政府潜在的关税政策对欧洲公司，尤其是面向中国出口的欧洲周期性行业（如非必需消费品和工业品）构成风险。我们预计欧洲的盈利增长将弱于全球其他地区，且欧洲股市表现可能落后于美股。
尽管如此，稳健的经济增长、更低的利率以及合理的估值将为欧洲市场提供一定支持。MSCI欧洲指数的12个月远期市盈率为12.9倍。我们预计到2025年底的总回报约为6%。
在欧洲市场中，我们偏好以下领域：
• 欧元区中小盘股：欧元区中小盘股相较大盘股的市盈率目前处于过去20年的低点（以MSCI EMU为基准）。这一板块可能受益于利率下降、信贷条件改善和国内增长恢复。此外，这些股票还具有一定的结构性增长趋势敞口，包括能源生产、脱碳和自动化。
• 瑞士高质量股息股：瑞士SPI指数的股息收益率为3%，高于瑞士法郎债券收益率，也高于过去25年的平均值2.4%。我们认为，瑞士公司稳健的资产负债表和盈利能力表明其分红具有可持续性。
Transformational innovation opportunities
We expect significant and sustained profit growth in the transformational innovation opportunities of (1) Artificial intelligence and (2) Power and resources. By investing in these areas, we believe investors can earn strong long-term returns.
1. Seize the AI opportunity
We expect artificial intelligence to be one of the most important investment opportunities of the decade. We expect high rates of investment to soon be followed by growth in applications, and we expect companies across the AI value chain to generate more than USD 1.1 trillion in revenue by 2027, just five years after the onset of ChatGPT. Investors should focus on both listed megacaps and innovative private companies to capitalize.
Recent years have seen capex on artificial intelligence increasing sharply. By the end of this year, we estimate that four tech companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) will have spent USD 222bn on AI capex in 2024 alone—a 50% year-over-year growth rate. That has been supporting significant growth in earnings for AI chip companies and cloud service providers, both of which are in the enabling layer of the AI value chain.
But we believe there is more room to grow. By 2027, just five years after the onset of ChatGPT, we expect the enabling layer to generate USD 516 bn in revenue, with AI chip companies and cloud service providers likely to capture most of this value. We expect strong growth in revenues in the intelligence layer—i.e., large language models—too. And by 2027, we also expect a directly addressable market of USD 395bn in revenue opportunities for the application layer. We expect successful generative AI applications across a range of industries, including in health care, cybersecurity, and fintech. The commercial effects of AI adoption could range from shorter drug discovery cycles (health care), to lower cost bases (financials) and greater demand for security and infrastructure safety (cybersecurity).
How should investors position?
• First, investors should ensure they are sufficiently invested. The sheer pace of growth in the industry means that investors who were underallocated before have become even more underallocated. We believe a neutral allocation to artificial intelligence would involve allocating around 25% of an equity portfolio to stocks with a high degree of exposure to the technology.
• Second, for now, tilt toward the enabling layer. We believe this segment currently offers the best mix of attractive and visible earnings growth profiles, strong competitive positioning, and reasonable valuations. We favor the semiconductor companies that benefit from the current investment in AI infrastructure. This includes not only leading US fabless chip designers, but also Taiwanese foundries with a strong technological edge and limited substitution risk posed by competitors, enabling them to better mitigate any potential tariff hikes. We believe specific opportunities in the application layer will become clearer over the coming years.
• Third, diversify investments between listed megacaps and innovative private companies. The AI rush so far has been highly beneficial for the largest tech firms. We believe this is a feature of the new AI investment landscape, and we expect an oligopoly of vertically integrated “foundries” and monolithic players to dominate. But we also see appealing opportunities in non-listed companies in areas including LLMs, software, and data centers, for investors willing and able to bear the risks inherent in private market investing, including illiquidity.
变革性创新投资机遇
人工智能和能源资源领域的变革性创新，预计将带来显著且持续的利润增长。我们认为，这些领域为投资者提供了强劲的长期回报潜力。
1. 把握人工智能的投资机会
人工智能有望成为本十年最重要的投资领域之一。高额投入将迅速带动应用的增长。我们预计，到2027年，也就是ChatGPT问世后的五年内，人工智能价值链相关企业的收入将超过1.1万亿美元。要抓住这一机遇，投资者应关注既有科技巨头，也要留意具有创新能力的私营企业。
近年来，人工智能领域的资本支出激增。
到2024年底，预计谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta和微软四家公司将在人工智能领域投入2220亿美元，同比增长50%。这一高额投入已经推动人工智能芯片公司和云服务提供商等“赋能层”企业的盈利显著增长。
增长空间仍然广阔。
到2027年，我们预计“赋能层”将实现5160亿美元的收入，人工智能芯片公司和云服务提供商将占据大部分市场份额。同时，“智能层”（如大型语言模型）的收入也将显著增长。而在“应用层”，包括医疗健康、网络安全和金融科技在内的多个行业，也有望创造3950亿美元的直接收入市场。人工智能应用可能带来的商业效益包括缩短药物研发周期（医疗健康）、降低运营成本（金融）以及提升安全性需求（网络安全）。
如何布局人工智能？
1. 确保足够的投资比例
人工智能行业增长迅猛，过去配置不足的投资者现在的滞后程度可能更高。我们建议，将约25%的股票投资组合配置到与人工智能高度相关的公司，以达到“中性”配置水平。
2. 当前重点关注“赋能层”
“赋能层”目前提供了最优的投资机会组合：具有清晰的盈利增长、强大的竞争力以及合理的估值。我们看好人工智能基础设施相关的半导体公司，包括领先的美国无晶圆芯片设计公司，以及技术优势明显、受竞争者影响较小的台湾代工厂商，这些企业在应对潜在关税上调方面更具优势。与此同时，“应用层”的具体机会可能会随着时间逐步显现。
3. 分散投资于上市巨头和私营创新企业
迄今为止，人工智能热潮为大型科技公司带来了巨大优势。我们预计，这将继续是人工智能投资格局的显著特征。少数垂直整合型的巨头企业和独立科技巨头将主导市场。但对于愿意承担私募市场固有风险（如流动性不足）的投资者而言，非上市公司领域也存在巨大的潜力机会，例如大型语言模型、人工智能软件和数据中心。
2. Invest in power and resources
We believe the power and resources field is set for transformational growth, offering significant investment opportunities across power generation, grid infrastructure, and natural resources as the world adapts to increasing electricity demand.
The rise of AI data centers, industrial electrification, electric vehicles, and global climate goals is increasing electricity demand. We estimate that electrifying the economy will require USD 3 trillion annually by 2030, benefiting companies in power and resource innovation.
The electrification value chain includes raw materials, generation, storage, transmission, distribution, and consumption (e.g., data centers, transport, heating, and cooling). Currently, we believe the best opportunities are in transmission, distribution, data centers, transport, and energy storage.
Consumption: Data centers as growth accelerators
Large AI data centers are significantly boosting electricity demand. A single NVIDIA GB200 GPU can consume as much power as an average US household in a year, and a server rack can hold 72 GPUs. Cooling a modern hyperscale facility can require transferring heat equivalent to melting 40,000 tons of ice daily. The Electric Power Research Institute projects data centers could use up to 9% of US electricity by 2030, up from 4% today. We also expect growth in electric transport, heating, cooling, and energy efficiency equipment.
Transmission and distribution: Strong growth ahead
We anticipate the transmission and distribution segment to experience the strongest growth within the electrification value chain. A decade of underinvestment has left grids in developed markets needing significant upgrades. Emerging markets also require extensive buildout to meet rising electricity demands. The shift toward smaller, less centralized generation necessitates further investments in grid modernization, including sensors, digital technologies, and load management software. Also, as the electric intensity of households and businesses increases, more equipment, transformers, and switchgear will be needed.
Raw materials: Demand for transition metals
Electrification and renewable energy will increase demand for metals like copper and aluminum in our view, which are crucial for electrical components and renewable technologies. Companies with strong resource bases and efficient production are likely to benefit.
Generation and energy storage: Challenging fundamentals
We expect long-term growth in electric generation technologies, including renewables, natural gas/hydrogen, and nuclear energy. However, developing new capacity is complex and time intensive owing to land, capital, financing, and grid management needs. Equipment demand could lead to excess capacity, and tariffs may affect supply chains. Companies with strong financial health and competitive advantages in solar, wind, nuclear, and natural gas-hydrogen technologies should be prioritized. Emerging technologies like advanced battery storage and small modular nuclear reactors can offer immediate growth opportunities.
Sell further dollar strength
While the US dollar may stay well bid in the near term, we believe its valuation may now be overstretched. We recommend investors use periods of strength to reduce US dollar exposure through strategies such as hedging dollar assets, switching USD cash and fixed income exposure to other currencies, and through options.
USD: Strength has its limits
The US dollar is entering a phase of uncertainty. Tax cuts and deregulation may attract capital inflows to US markets, while immigration controls could tighten the labor market, potentially keeping interest rates elevated. Tariffs might strengthen the dollar.
But the dollar appears overvalued based on fair value metrics. We believe markets are overestimating the likelihood of prolonged high rates by the Fed.
Additionally, worries about the US government debt trajectory or unpredictable foreign policy could undermine confidence in US Treasuries as a safe asset. In the short term, new policy announcements might boost the dollar, but we anticipate it will approach 1.12 (versus the euro) by end-2025.
We advise investors to use periods of further dollar strength to decrease exposure through hedging, shifting USD cash and fixed income to other currencies, and using options.
2. 投资于能源和资源领域
我们认为，能源和资源领域即将迎来变革性增长，尤其是在发电、电网基础设施和自然资源方面，这为投资者提供了重要的投资机会。随着全球对电力需求的增加，这一领域的投资潜力显得尤为显著。
电力需求的增长驱动
人工智能数据中心、工业电气化、电动车以及全球气候目标的推动下，电力需求快速增长。我们预计，到2030年，每年需要投入3万亿美元用于经济电气化，这将为能源和资源创新相关企业带来巨大收益。
电气化价值链涵盖原材料、发电、储能、输电、配电以及消费（如数据中心、交通、供暖和制冷）。目前，我们认为最佳投资机会集中在输电、配电、数据中心、交通运输和储能领域。
消费：数据中心成为增长加速器
大型人工智能数据中心正显著推动电力需求的增长。一块NVIDIA GB200 GPU的年耗电量与一个美国普通家庭相当，而一个服务器机架可以容纳72块GPU。冷却现代超大规模设施需要相当于每天融化4万吨冰的热传输能力。电力研究院（Electric Power Research Institute）预计，到2030年，数据中心的用电量可能占美国总用电量的9%，远高于目前的4%。同时，电动车、供暖、制冷及节能设备的增长也将进一步推高电力需求。
输电和配电：强劲增长的前景
我们预计，输电和配电领域将在电气化价值链中实现最强劲的增长。过去十年的投资不足使发达市场的电网亟需升级，而新兴市场也需要大规模建设以满足电力需求的增长。小型化、分散式发电的趋势要求对电网现代化进行进一步投资，包括传感器、数字化技术和负载管理软件。此外，随着家庭和企业的用电强度增加，更多设备、变压器和开关设备将被需要。
原材料：转型金属需求增长
电气化和可再生能源的发展将推动铜和铝等关键金属需求增长，这些金属在电气组件和可再生能源技术中至关重要。资源储备强大且生产效率高的企业有望从中受益。
发电和储能：挑战与机遇并存
我们预计电力发电技术（包括可再生能源、天然气/氢气和核能）将实现长期增长。然而，由于土地、资本、融资和电网管理需求的复杂性，新增产能的开发仍然具有挑战性。设备需求可能导致过剩产能，关税政策也可能对供应链产生影响。具有稳健财务状况和竞争优势的公司（如太阳能、风能、核能以及天然气-氢气技术领域）应成为优先投资对象。此外，先进的电池储能技术和小型模块化核反应堆等新兴技术提供了立即的增长机会。
减持美元资产
虽然短期内美元可能继续走强，但我们认为其估值已过高。我们建议投资者利用美元走强的时机减少美元敞口，采用对冲策略、将美元现金和固定收益转移到其他货币，或通过期权进行调整。
美元：强势的边界
美元进入了不确定阶段。减税和去监管政策可能吸引资本流入美国市场，而移民控制可能进一步收紧劳动力市场，潜在地维持较高利率水平。同时，关税可能进一步推动美元走强。
然而，从公允价值指标来看，美元已经被高估。我们认为市场可能高估了美联储长期维持高利率的可能性。此外，美国政府债务轨迹或不可预测的外交政策可能削弱美元作为安全资产的吸引力。短期内，新政策宣布可能推升美元，但到2025年底，我们预计欧元兑美元汇率将达到1.12。
我们建议投资者利用美元走强的阶段，通过对冲、将美元资产转向其他货币以及使用期权等方式降低美元敞口。
EUR: Low expectations
While we do not expect Eurozone growth to be robust, we do expect it to be somewhat stronger than it was in 2024. And with sentiment on Europe muted, we see scope for a positive surprise for the euro. In our base case, we also do not expect EUR government bond yields to decline much further from already low levels.
The euro may stay weak against the dollar in the short term, but we believe it will strengthen over the year, projecting an EURUSD rate of 1.12 by the end of 2025.
CHF: Rate cuts almost complete
After the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates three times in 2024, we expect one more 25-basis-point cut in December and another in March 2025. We do not expect Swiss bond yields to move lower from already low levels. On a relative basis, this should support the CHF as yield differentials become less negative for the Swiss currency. Safe-haven demand could remain a CHF-supportive factor if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.
We expect USDCHF to trade at 0.84 by end-2025.
GBP and AUD: Our preferred developed market carry currencies
In the UK and Australia, given the mix of inflation and economic growth dynamics, we think interest rates could be cut more slowly than in other regions, supporting positive total returns against peers.
We expect AUDUSD and GBPUSD to trade at 0.68 and 1.35, respectively, by December 2025.
JPY and CNY: Strength for yen, weakness for yuan
We anticipate the yen will strengthen in 2025, predicting USDJPY to hit 145 by year-end.
First, we believe the yen is undervalued, not reflecting the current yield differences with the US dollar.
Second, we expect the yield gap between the US and Japan to close in 2025, as the Federal Reserve reduces rates while the Bank of Japan raises them.
Third, politically, President-elect Trump has criticized the yen’s weakness, and Japanese policymakers are also against it weakening beyond 160. A stronger yen could align with both US and Japanese interests.
We expect USDCNY to rise toward 7.5 by end-2025 as trade tariffs contribute to yuan weakness, even as the People’s Bank of China leans against CNY depreciation by stabilizing its daily USDCNY fixing rate.
Go for gold
We expect gold to build on its gains in 2025. Lower interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks, and strong dollar-diversification trends likely see investor and central bank buying continue. Outside gold, we also see long-term opportunities in copper and other transition metals, with demand increasing alongside higher investment into power generation, storage, and electric transport.
Further upside for gold
Gold reached new record highs, with the price topping USD 2,790/oz—a gain of 35% to 30 October 2024. Since Election Day, the metal has faced modest setbacks, as investors focused on the decisive nature of Trump’s victory and the potential benefits of Trump’s policies on US stocks.
We expect the de-dollarization trend among central banks and private asset managers to continue. We estimate central banks bought around 900 metric tons of gold in 2024, and these volumes can be sustained well above the prior decade’s average of around 325 metric tons a year. Additionally, we see other traditional drivers of gold like lower real interest rates, fading dollar strength, and rising geopolitical uncertainties reasserting themselves in the year ahead.
We think prices could rise to new highs in 2025, underpinned by a step higher in exchange-traded funds inflows; the third quarter saw the strongest net inflows in a quarter since 1Q22.
More in metals
Industrial metals have faced headwinds in recent months, as weak economic data from China and fears of a cutback in US climate-related spending have outweighed concerns about longer-term supply shortages. However, in 2025, we believe tightening fundamentals will again support metal prices as the global energy transition continues and the number of new mining projects disappoints. For example, we see copper prices reaching a near-record USD 11,000 per metric ton by end-2025. We also see opportunities in more niche minerals like manganese, rare earths, and lithium. Owing to the complexities of attaining direct exposure, we prefer buying select miners and processors that have exposure to these metals.
Oil: Higher prices on supply disappointments
Consensus expects the oil market to be oversupplied next year. But we think that current low prices could lead to lower supply growth than expected in the US. Also, OPEC+ is likely to be cautious about increasing supply if the market cannot handle it, and renewed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela could affect supply.
Meanwhile, solid economic growth, global interest rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus measures should moderately increase oil demand. With financial positioning in oil currently low, we expect moderately higher crude oil prices in 2025 and favor yield-generating strategies that take on the risk that the oil price will not fall below a certain level.
Copper is our high-conviction pick among exchange-traded base metals.
欧元：低预期下的潜在回升
我们不认为欧元区经济增长会特别强劲，但预计2025年的表现将优于2024年。在市场对欧洲的预期普遍低迷的情况下，欧元可能带来积极的意外表现。
基准预测下，欧元区政府债券收益率不太可能从当前低点进一步下行。短期内，欧元兑美元可能继续维持弱势，但我们预计欧元将在全年逐步走强，到2025年底EUR/USD汇率将达到1.12。
瑞士法郎：降息周期接近尾声
瑞士国家银行在2024年已降息三次，预计2025年3月还将再降息25个基点。瑞士债券收益率很可能不会从目前的低位继续下降。这一相对稳定的利率水平将减少瑞士法郎的负面收益率差，对瑞士法郎形成支撑。同时，如果地缘政治紧张局势持续，避险需求也将进一步增强瑞士法郎的吸引力。我们预计到2025年底，USD/CHF汇率将降至0.84。
英镑和澳元：发达市场中表现优异的货币
在英国和澳大利亚，由于通胀和经济增长的特殊动态，预计利率的下降速度将慢于其他地区，从而为英镑和澳元提供更稳定的回报支持。
我们预测，到2025年12月，AUD/USD汇率将达到0.68，而GBP/USD汇率将达到1.35。
日元和人民币：日元走强，人民币承压
我们预计2025年日元将显著走强，USD/JPY汇率到年底可能回落至145：
1. 低估的价值：日元当前的估值低于其应有水平，没有反映出与美元的收益率差距。
2. 利率差缩小：美联储降息与日本央行加息的组合，将缩小两国间的收益率差距。
3. 政策影响：特朗普总统对日元贬值提出了批评，而日本政策制定者也不愿看到日元跌破160水平。日元走强可能符合美日双方的利益。
相反，人民币可能在2025年继续走弱，预计USD/CNY汇率将升至7.5。虽然中国人民银行可能采取措施稳定汇率，但贸易关税的持续压力将对人民币构成下行风险。
黄金：继续上涨的潜力
我们预计2025年黄金将延续涨势，主要受益于降息趋势、地缘政治风险以及“去美元化”趋势推动的央行和私人投资者的强劲需求。
黄金的增长空间
截至2024年10月底，黄金价格创下每盎司2790美元的新高，年内上涨35%。虽然美国大选后因特朗普胜选而出现小幅回调，但黄金的长期支撑因素依然强劲。
全球“去美元化”趋势将继续推动央行购买黄金。我们估计，2024年央行购买了约900吨黄金，这一水平远高于过去十年平均每年325吨的水平。此外，利率下降、美元走弱以及地缘政治不确定性上升，预计将成为未来一年推动黄金上涨的主要驱动力。我们预计2025年黄金价格可能创下新高，交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流入也将为其提供额外支撑。
金属市场的机会
近期工业金属受中国经济疲软和对美国减少气候相关支出的担忧拖累，但2025年基本面紧张将重新支撑金属价格。特别是全球能源转型需求增加、新采矿项目不及预期等因素，将推高供需失衡的程度。
我们预测铜价到2025年底将接近历史高点，每吨达到11000美元。此外，锰、稀土、锂等小众矿物也蕴含巨大投资机会。由于直接投资这些金属的复杂性，我们建议投资于与这些资源相关的精选矿商和加工企业。
原油：供应压力或推动价格上行
市场普遍预计2025年原油供过于求。但我们认为，当前低油价可能抑制美国的供应增长。同时，如果市场吸纳能力不足，OPEC+可能会谨慎增产。此外，对伊朗和委内瑞拉的新制裁可能进一步削减供应量。
需求方面，稳健的经济增长、全球降息以及财政刺激措施预计将推动原油需求小幅上升。在目前原油市场持仓较低的情况下，我们预计2025年油价将适度上涨，并建议采用收益策略应对价格波动风险。
铜是我们在基础金属领域的首选，强烈看好其交易前景。
Time for real estate
We think the outlook for global residential and commercial real estate investments is bright. With declining and constrained supply paired with rising demand, we see opportunities in sectors including logistics, data centers, and multifamily housing. Investors should focus on quality assets and strategic diversification to capitalize on these favorable market dynamics.
The global real estate market is poised for greater activity in the year ahead, driven by lower capital costs, increased debt availability, and over USD 400 billion in private capital ready to be deployed.
Although transactions had previously halved due to high leverage costs, the current environment of lower interest rates and tighter borrowing spreads should boost deal activity.
Supply and demand dynamics improving
Conditions vary across regions and markets, but, overall, robust real estate demand is meeting constrained new supply. Since COVID-19, construction activity in both commercial and residential sectors has been limited due to increased regulation and higher costs. This has resulted in a scarcity of new, quality space, even in the challenged US office market. These dynamics are likely to lead to decreasing vacancy rates, rising rental growth, which we believe will drive capital appreciation over the next several years.
Investment opportunities
Both public and private real estate markets are trading at attractive yield gaps and offer good discounts, in our view. We recommend focusing on sectors with strong fundamental dynamics:
• Commercial: Logistics properties, data centers, and telecommunication towers are well-positioned, particularly in the US and Europe, benefiting from trends like e-commerce and AI, and have barriers to entry.
• Residential: Broad exposure to multifamily, senior, and student housing sectors is advisable, although we are less optimistic on the sector in the UK and China.
• Retail: Selective opportunities exist, particularly in need-based retail properties.
• Office market: Caution is advised, with a focus on prime, high-quality central office spaces, which should outperform lower-tier, older properties.
Public market performance
In listed markets, we anticipate double-digit performance overall. While US real estate companies have strong balance sheets, Singapore developers and REITs, along with Japanese developers, are expected to benefit most from interest rate cuts, and we believe these likely improvements are not yet fully priced in compared to their US and European counterparts.
Private market strategy
In private markets, we expect similar performance. We focus on core/core-plus real estate managers capable of generating income and capital growth, particularly in our key sectors. We also favor managers who can execute opportunistic acquisitions through take-privates or joint ventures with asset owners seeking liquidity. Additionally, we see opportunities in real estate debt.
Regional variations in direct real estate
At a regional level, direct real estate investments in Canada, the US, and Continental Europe may, in our view, yield the most attractive returns owing to strong rental growth and falling interest rates. Conversely, we are less optimistic about the UK residential market because of affordability issues. In China, we foresee challenges and expect residential investments to deliver lower-than-average returns.
We expect real estate to revive in 2025, with opportunities across commercial and residential sectors.
房地产业的投资机会来了
我们认为，全球住宅和商业地产的投资前景光明。在供应减少、开发受限的同时，需求却在稳步上升。物流地产、数据中心以及多户型住宅等领域展现出巨大潜力。投资者应将重点放在优质资产，并通过战略性多元化布局抓住这一市场良机。
全球房地产市场将更活跃
随着资本成本下降、债务融资条件改善，以及超过4000亿美元的私人资本待投放，全球房地产市场预计将在未来一年迎来更高的交易活跃度。此前，由于融资成本高企，房地产交易量一度减半；而当前利率下调及借贷利差收窄的环境，为交易复苏创造了条件。
供需关系的改善
各地市场情况不同，但整体来看，强劲的房地产需求正在对有限的新供应形成压力。自新冠疫情以来，由于监管更加严格、建造成本上升，无论是商业地产还是住宅地产的建设活动都受到抑制。这种现状导致即便是在表现欠佳的美国办公市场，新建优质物业也极为稀缺。
这种供需不平衡预计将带来空置率下降、租金上涨，而这将成为未来几年推动资本增值的重要动力。
关键投资领域
目前，无论是公开市场还是私募市场，房地产投资均展现了有吸引力的收益空间和折扣机会。我们建议重点关注以下几个基本面强劲的领域：
• 商业地产：物流地产、数据中心和通信塔是目前表现最为突出的领域，特别是在美国和欧洲，受益于电子商务和人工智能等长期趋势。这些资产还具有较高的进入壁垒。
• 住宅地产：多户型住宅、养老住宅和学生公寓领域机会颇多。不过我们对英国和中国的住宅市场持更为保守的态度。
• 零售地产：需求型零售物业（如日常必需品零售场所）存在一些选择性机会。
• 办公地产：建议重点关注高品质核心办公空间，这些物业将显著优于老旧或较低端的办公楼。
公开市场表现展望
在上市市场中，我们预计整体房地产领域将实现两位数的收益。美国房地产公司财务状况稳健，但我们认为新加坡开发商及房地产投资信托基金（REITs）、以及日本开发商将从降息中获益更多。目前，这些市场的潜在改善尚未完全反映在其资产价格中，与美国和欧洲同行相比存在一定补涨空间。
私募市场策略建议
私募房地产市场的表现预计将与公开市场持平。我们建议投资者优先选择能在核心/核心增强型资产上实现收入与资本增值的管理团队。我们还看好能够抓住机会进行私有化或与资产所有者联合投资的管理人。此外，房地产债权领域也值得关注。
地区差异
从区域来看，加拿大、美国和欧洲大陆的直接房地产投资预计将获得最高回报，这得益于强劲的租金增长和利率下降。相比之下，由于购房负担能力问题，我们对英国住宅市场持谨慎态度。而中国的住宅市场面临更多挑战，预计投资回报可能低于全球平均水平。
展望2025：房地产市场复苏的机遇
我们预计2025年房地产市场将逐步复苏，无论是商业地产还是住宅领域，都将涌现出大量投资机会。
Asset class expectations
Since the beginning of the decade, cash returns have struggled to surpass inflation and bonds have faced headwinds from rising interest rates. In contrast, equities have thrived, and private markets and commodities have offered robust returns. Looking ahead, we expect equities and private markets to continue to offer the highest potential returns.
Cash
Recent years have been dismal for real returns on cash, with higher interest rates not sufficient to offset the surge in inflation. Since the start of the decade, the real purchasing power of cash has fallen by 8% in US dollars, 13% in euros, and 6% in Swiss francs.
We expect cash to remain among the worst-performing major asset classes. A rate-cutting cycle is underway, eroding future returns on cash. Meanwhile, secular trends such as deglobalization, decarbonization, higher debt, and an aging population may put periodic upward pressure on inflation, eroding cash’s after-inflation returns.
We advise investors to shift excess cash deposits and money market funds into assets that provide higher and more durable sources of income.
Government bonds
Government bonds have had one of the worst five-year periods in modern history, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Government bond index delivering a nominal negative return of 2.8%.
Conditions for government bonds have improved lately, with yields now higher and lower inflation and central bank rate cuts ahead.
That said, because of strains on public finances, investors may increasingly demand higher risk premia for government bonds. And while central banks may use their balance sheets to smooth financial market functioning, investors may need to prepare for greater volatility on longer-dated debt.
We believe investors should therefore supplement core government bond holdings with alternative sources of income, including investment grade credit, fixed income hedge fund strategies, or private credit funds.
Credit
Corporate debt has also faced headwinds in recent years amid rising rates, high inflation, and the shock of the pandemic. But prospects have revived amid stronger-than-expected US growth and healthy consumer and corporate balance sheets. We expect higher returns from corporate credit than in recent years.
We do see challenges in the years ahead, however, particularly as bond investors digest changes in investment needs, bond issuer profitability, and the composition of bond indices. But we believe a diversified allocation to credit remains a key part of a balanced portfolio.
Equities
Despite a challenging start to the decade, equities have delivered very strong performance over the past five years. Returns have been led by the US, with the S&P 500 returning around 111% over the period, at the time of writing. Technology stocks flourished during the pandemic and have gained an additional boost in recent years by advances in artificial intelligence.
While US equity market valuations are now higher than historical averages, we are positive on the long-term outlook for overall equity market returns. Over the coming years, we expect the commercialization of AI to benefit top US tech firms as well as other sectors and markets through higher productivity and profit margins. We also expect equities to suffer less of a drag from higher inflation than fixed income, since leading companies should be able to pass on higher costs through higher prices.
We believe equities will likely remain the key driver of long-term portfolio growth. We advise investors to maintain adequate exposure to developments in AI, as well as to ensure global diversification.
Alternatives
Annualized returns on global private equity so far this decade have outpaced those on global stocks, according to data from Cambridge Associates, and opportunities have expanded, as companies have delayed or avoided listing on public markets. Separately, private credit funds have expanded into areas vacated by bank lenders, with direct lending achieving higher returns than leveraged loans.
We expect continued strong returns from private markets over the next 15 years, with the highest absolute returns from private equity. We also expect a growing private markets opportunity set, given the scale of capital required for digitization and decarbonization.
For investors willing and able to tolerate lower liquidity and less transparency, alternatives have become both an important driver of returns and a portfolio stabilizer.
Commodities
The UBS Bloomberg CMCI Composite Index has returned around 75% over the past five years, helped by rising global demand for energy and industrial metals. High inflation has boosted demand for commodities from investors seeking a hedge.
Looking ahead, a range of long-term forces will likely affect the outlook for the asset class. Deglobalization could lead to regional scarcities. The shift to electric vehicles and continued investment in zero-carbon infrastructure should boost demand for a range of metals and minerals. And increased use of AI is boosting energy demand. At the same time, while gradual, the process of decarbonization should ultimately reduce the share of oil and gas in the total energy mix.
Overall, commodity volatility could be elevated in the years ahead, so we recommend a tactical and actively managed approach to long-term commodity exposure.
Currencies
The US dollar has outperformed most major currencies in the decade so far. The trade-weighted dollar index has appreciated by around 10% since the start of the decade. Now, the US currency trades at strongly overvalued levels compared to most of its peers, in our view. We estimate purchasing power parity for EURUSD at 1.25.
Looking forward, we expect the forces that have supported the USD in recent years to fade, and large US fiscal and current account deficits could start to exert downward pressure on the currency.
资产类别展望
自本世纪初以来，现金回报难以跑赢通胀，债券则因利率上升而表现低迷。相较之下，股票表现强劲，私人市场和大宗商品也提供了稳健的回报。展望未来，我们预计股票和私人市场将继续成为潜在回报最高的投资领域。
现金：回报表现仍不乐观
近年来，现金的实际回报表现不佳。尽管利率上升，但仍不足以弥补通胀带来的损失。自本世纪初以来，现金的购买力下降显著：
• 美元下跌8%；
• 欧元下跌13%；
• 瑞士法郎下跌6%。
我们预计，现金仍将是表现最差的主要资产类别之一。随着全球进入降息周期，现金的未来回报可能进一步下降。同时，去全球化、去碳化、高债务水平以及人口老龄化等长期趋势可能周期性推高通胀，进一步侵蚀现金的实际回报。详情可查看这篇文章瑞银：未来十年（五大发展趋势）
建议：将多余的现金储备或货币市场基金转移至能提供更高、持久收益的资产。
政府债券：前景有所改善，但仍需谨慎
过去五年，政府债券经历了历史性的低谷，彭博美国综合政府债券指数的名义回报为-2.8%。近期，债券投资环境有所改善，主要得益于收益率上升、通胀回落以及央行降息预期。
然而，公共财政压力的增大可能导致投资者对政府债券提出更高的风险溢价要求。此外，央行可能通过市场干预来平抑波动，但长期债券的波动性仍可能增加。
建议：在持有核心政府债券的基础上，适当配置其他收入来源，如投资级信用债、固定收益对冲基金策略或私人信贷基金，以提高收益稳定性。
企业债券：回报改善，但需多元配置
过去几年，企业债券因利率上升、高通胀及疫情冲击而面临压力。但随着美国经济增长超出预期，消费者和企业资产负债表保持健康，企业债券的回报前景有所改善。
虽然未来可能面临一些挑战，例如投资需求的变化、债券发行人盈利能力波动及指数成分调整，但企业债券仍是平衡投资组合的重要组成部分。
建议：通过多元化配置信用债，在平衡风险的同时获取稳健回报。
股票：长期投资的核心驱动力
尽管本世纪初经历了挑战，但过去五年股票市场表现极为出色，尤其是美国市场。截至目前，标普500指数的五年累计回报达111%。技术股在疫情期间表现突出，人工智能的快速发展又为其增添了新的增长动力。
虽然美国股市估值高于历史均值，但我们对股票的长期回报持乐观态度。人工智能的商业化预计将提升美国科技巨头及其他行业的生产率和利润率。同时，与固定收益资产不同，领先企业能够通过提价将成本转嫁，因而股票受通胀影响相对较小。
建议：保持对股票市场的足够配置，关注人工智能领域，同时确保投资组合的全球多元化。
另类资产：私人市场的吸引力持续增加
根据剑桥协会的数据，私人股权的年化回报已超越全球股票。近年来，许多公司推迟或选择不在公开市场上市，进一步扩大了私人市场的投资机会。同时，私人信贷基金正在填补银行信贷退出的空白，直接贷款的回报率已超过杠杆贷款。
未来15年，我们预计私人市场将继续提供强劲回报，尤其是私人股权。此外，随着数字化和去碳化需要大量资本投入，私人市场的机会将进一步增加。
建议：对于能够接受低流动性和低透明度的投资者，另类资产既是提升回报的重要来源，也是投资组合的重要稳定器。
大宗商品：波动性增加，但长期机会可期
过去五年，瑞银彭博CMCI综合指数累计回报达75%，受益于全球能源和工业金属需求上升，以及高通胀驱动的避险需求。
展望未来，以下长期因素将影响大宗商品的前景：
• 去全球化：可能导致某些地区资源短缺；
• 能源转型：电动车普及和零碳基础设施建设将增加对金属和矿物的需求；
• 人工智能普及：提高能源需求；
• 去碳化：逐步减少石油和天然气在能源结构中的比重。
总体来看，大宗商品市场的波动性可能维持高位，因此需要采用战术性和主动管理的投资方式。
货币：美元或迎压力
截至目前，美元在本世纪表现优于多数主要货币，贸易加权美元指数上涨了10%。然而，当前美元估值显著高于其他主要货币。例如，我们估算欧元兑美元（EUR/USD）的购买力平价约为1.25。
展望未来，支撑美元的因素可能逐渐减弱，而美国巨大的财政和经常账户赤字可能对美元构成下行压力。
建议：利用美元走强的阶段，逐步降低美元资产的敞口，转向其他货币。
How to plan ahead?
Our strategic messages in focus
» Put cash to work
» Strengthen your core
» Diversify with alternatives
» Optimize your leverage
» Be active
» Go sustainable
如何未雨绸缪？
我们的核心战略建议
• 让现金发挥作用
将闲置现金投入到更高效、更具回报潜力的资产中，以应对未来的通胀和利率波动。
• 强化投资核心
优化核心投资组合，关注高质量的资产，确保稳健性和可持续的长期回报。
• 通过另类资产实现多元化
增加对另类资产的配置，包括私人市场、私募信贷和大宗商品等，以提升组合弹性并捕捉新的增长机会。
• 优化杠杆
利用合适的杠杆策略，在控制风险的同时放大投资收益。
• 积极主动
采取主动管理的投资策略，在不断变化的市场环境中寻找灵活应对的机会。
• 践行可持续投资
通过聚焦可持续发展领域，将社会责任与经济回报结合起来，捕捉未来的长期增长趋势。
Review your plan
Developing a strategic plan that links goals with strategies can improve investors’ chance of success and help them stay focused on the bigger picture amid potential market turbulence.
Our Liquidity. Longevity. Legacy.* approach can help investors pursue wealth goals over different time frames:
1. Liquidity: We recommend holding sufficient funds to cover the next three to five years’ worth of short-term expenses, liabilities, and spending plans in a Liquidity strategy mainly using cash and short-term bonds. This can offer peace of mind during market volatility, and a disciplined process of drawing on, and refilling, the strategy during bear markets can help generate performance over time.
2. Longevity: Funds needed to meet financial goals throughout an investor’s life should be in a Longevity strategy. We believe this is best invested in a well-diversified global portfolio, with the objective of balancing long-term returns with diversification to reduce volatility and manage withdrawal risks.
3. Legacy: Excess funds beyond Liquidity and Longevity needs can be in a Legacy strategy, focusing on goals beyond an investor’s lifetime, like bequests or philanthropy. With immediate needs covered, this strategy can focus on aiming to maximize growth through equity or illiquid strategies or impact investing. Effective legacy planning can help maximize wealth transfers, impact, and supports philanthropy.
Put cash to work and secure durable income
Cash’s long-term underperformance compared to other asset classes is a structural phenomenon. Stocks have beaten cash in 86% and 100% of all 10- and 20-year holding periods, respectively, and by more than 200x overall since 1926.
The imperative to put cash to work is likely to grow in 2025: With interest rates likely to fall further, investors will earn progressively lower returns and will need to find alternative, more durable sources of income.
Switching cash into high-quality fixed income can lock in yields and help dampen portfolio volatility. Deploying excess cash into equity income or balanced strategies can provide a more long-lasting source of return and increase the likelihood of beating inflation over the long term.
Annuities should also be considered, as they can play an important role in providing greater stability and predictability to income streams.
How much would USD 100 invested in 1926 be worth today?
优化你的投资计划
制定一个将目标与策略紧密结合的投资计划，不仅能提高成功概率，还能帮助投资者在面对市场波动时，始终专注于全局。
我们的“流动性、长期性与传承性策略”（Liquidity. Longevity. Legacy.*）为不同阶段的财富目标提供了清晰指引：
1. 流动性策略（Liquidity）
这部分资金用于满足未来三到五年的短期需求，包括日常开销、债务偿还和预定支出。流动性资金应主要投资于现金和短期债券，以确保安全性和稳定性。
在市场波动较大的时期，拥有一笔稳定的流动资金不仅能提供心理上的安慰，还能为长期投资留出喘息空间。通过有计划地使用和补充这部分资金，还可以提升组合的长期回报。
2. 长期性策略（Longevity）
用于满足人生阶段性财务目标的资金，应纳入长期性策略。我们建议投资一份全球多元化的资产组合，以平衡收益和风险。
这种策略的核心目标是在实现长期增长的同时，通过分散化降低波动性，确保在资金提取过程中有效管理风险，保证财务稳健。
3. 传承性策略（Legacy）
超出流动性和长期性需求的资金可用于更长期的目标，例如财富传承和慈善事业。这部分资金因无需满足近期需求，可以专注于高增长资产的投资，如股票、非流动性资产或影响力投资。
通过合理的传承规划，不仅能实现财富的高效转移，还能扩大社会影响力，为后代和社会创造更多价值。
让现金动起来，为未来锁定稳定回报
现金从长期来看表现疲软，这已是一个不可忽视的事实：自1926年以来，股票在86%的10年持有期和100%的20年持有期内跑赢现金，总体回报更是现金的200倍以上。
到2025年，随着利率进一步下降，现金的回报率可能持续走低。为了保持收益率，投资者需要将闲置现金转化为更持久的收入来源。
优化现金配置的建议
1. 转换为高质量固定收益资产
通过配置高质量债券，可以锁定当前的较高收益率，同时降低投资组合的波动性。
2. 转向股息策略或均衡型投资
多余现金可投资于高股息收益率的股票策略或均衡型投资组合，以获得更稳定、持续的回报，并在长期内跑赢通胀。
3. 考虑年金产品
年金产品能够提供稳定和可预测的收入流，是长期财务规划的理想选择。
如果从1926年起投资100美元，如今价值几何？
答案是一个惊人的数字。这不仅说明了股票的长期增长潜力，也强调了投资复利的强大力量。把握时间与策略，能让财富实现跨越式增长。
Strengthen your core
Investors can build an effective portfolio with a variety of individual investments. But there is a risk that portfolio complexity can lead investors to lose sight of their overarching goals, particularly when markets become more volatile or when financial news headlines seem pressing.
To tackle this, we believe that investors should implement a “core” component in their wealth management strategy. The core should be a portfolio diversified effectively across asset classes, geographies, and sectors, and left alone to grow wealth consistently for the long term.
Establishing such a core and letting it deliver compounded returns over time can provide investors with the confidence that their financial goals are accounted for while freeing up time and mental energy to pursue other passions or to seek tactical satellite opportunities.
Diversify with alternatives
By including an allocation to private equity, private debt, private infrastructure, and/or private real estate into portfolios, investors can diversify sources of return and potentially enhance portfolio growth. We believe that investors can consider replacing around 30% of their public equity exposure with private markets, depending on their tolerance for illiquidity.
In private markets, we like private credit, value-oriented buyout, and secondaries including infrastructure; and thematically, we favor software, health, and climate.
Meanwhile, exposure to select hedge funds can play various roles in a portfolio, acting either as a pure diversifier or as a substitute for other assets. Our analysis indicates that global discretionary macro hedge funds have historically shown an average correlation of 0.2-0.4 with various bond indexes since 1997, and exhibit negative downside correlation during periods of financial stress. We believe investors should consider having around 10% in hedge funds, funded by a combination of bonds and equities.
In hedge funds, we favor low net equity long/short strategies, macro, and multi-strategy, and select alternative credit.
Optimize your leverage
Borrowing is risky, but we believe that proactive, prudent, and strategic borrowing can enhance an investor’s financial plan, especially as interest rates fall. If managed correctly, borrowing can help with:
• Managing liquidity: A flexible line of credit can provide immediate access to funds without the need to sell assets, reducing the necessity of holding excess cash. This can be beneficial for handling tax bills, capital calls, or retaining the flexibility to make larger investments.
• Improving diversification: Borrowing against existing assets to invest in less correlated assets may help smooth portfolio fluctuations and broaden return sources, with future cash flows used to gradually reduce debt.
• Currency management: Borrowing in foreign currencies can help manage exchange rate risks associated with future foreign income and offer additional funds for domestic investments.
• Boosting return potential: For those with a high risk tolerance, borrowing could potentially lead to higher long-term gains if returns exceed borrowing costs, particularly as interest rates decline. However, this strategy is risky, as leverage can amplify both losses and gains.
Investors should carefully compare loan rates with expected returns, consider refinancing and interest rate risks, and be aware of the potential for margin calls during market fluctuations.
强化投资核心
很多投资者喜欢通过各种单独的投资来搭建自己的投资组合，但组合太复杂往往会让人迷失方向。特别是在市场波动加剧或者被新闻热点吸引时，更容易偏离长期目标。
为了避免这种情况，我们建议在投资中建立一个“核心组合”。这个核心组合应该涵盖不同资产类别、地域和行业，确保多元化，同时专注于长期稳定增值。它的关键在于“放手不折腾”，让时间和复利为你工作。
建立核心组合有助于让你更放心，因为它已经为你的长期目标做好了规划。而你也可以腾出精力去专注于生活中的其他重要事，或者偶尔抓住一些短期的投资机会。
用另类资产丰富组合
想让投资更稳固？那就别光盯着股票和债券，可以考虑加入一些另类资产，比如私人股权、私人债务、基础设施投资或者私人房地产。这些资产不仅能让你的回报来源更多样，还可能带来更高的增长潜力。
根据你的流动性需求和风险承受能力，我们建议将约30%的公开股权替换成私人市场投资。
我们推荐的方向：
• 私人市场：私人信贷、价值型并购、基础设施相关的二级市场投资。
• 主题投资：软件、医疗健康、气候相关领域。
对冲基金也是不错的选择。它不仅可以起到分散风险的作用，还能代替一些传统资产。数据显示，自1997年以来，全球宏观对冲基金与债券指数的相关性很低（仅0.2-0.4），而且在金融危机时还能表现出负相关性。
我们的配置建议：
• 将投资组合的10%分配给对冲基金，资金可从股票和债券中调配出来。
• 看好的策略包括：低净值股票多空策略、宏观策略、多元策略以及精选的另类信贷策略。
优化杠杆策略
杠杆听起来可能有点风险，但如果用得好，它是个很强大的工具，尤其是在利率下降的时候。合理利用杠杆，可以帮助你更好地管理财务，让资产运作更高效。
杠杆可以用在哪些地方？
1. 流动性管理
有了灵活的信用额度，你在需要资金时不用急着卖掉资产。这种方式特别适合应对大笔税款、资本调用需求，或者抓住重大投资机会。
2. 提升多元化
用现有资产去借贷，再把资金投向与现有投资不相关的资产，可以降低波动性，同时扩大回报来源。未来的现金流还能用来逐步还清债务。
3. 管理货币风险
如果有外币收入，外币借贷可以帮你对冲汇率风险，同时还能用这笔资金支持国内投资。
4. 提升回报潜力
如果你能承受较高风险，杠杆还能帮你放大回报——前提是投资回报率要高于借贷成本。特别是在利率下行的环境下，这种策略的吸引力会更大。但请记住，杠杆不仅会放大利润，也会放大亏损。
注意事项
• 借钱投资之前，先算清楚贷款利率和预期回报率是否划算。
• 关注利率走势，抓住低息重新融资的机会。
• 小心市场波动引发的追加保证金风险，做好应对计划。
合理使用杠杆，可以让你的投资组合更灵活、更有潜力，同时还能更高效地抓住机会。
Be active
The investment industry has undergone a passive revolution in recent years. In 2023, assets held in global passive equity funds (USD 15.1 trillion) overtook assets in active funds (USD 14.3 trillion) for the first time, according to LSEG Lipper. But investors need to ensure they are balancing their exposure to passive and active strategies effectively.
In equities, passive investing can be a good way to quickly and cheaply add exposure to broad markets. But for investors looking to add exposure to new or less prominent markets, including small caps, emergent growth themes, or emerging markets, passive investments may be too broad to navigate fast-evolving industries or companies that are not as well-covered. An active approach to investing can also enable investors to take advantage of changing volatility conditions, generating yield when volatility is high, or hedging portfolios when volatility is low.
In bonds, the complexities of managing weights, maturities, cash flows, duration risk, interest rate risk, and credit risk mean that actively managed funds can often offer greater convenience and superior risk management than investors trying to manage single bond exposure themselves.
Generating alpha is also a core aim of alternative investment managers.
Go sustainable
All major asset classes, including equities, bonds, hedge funds, and private markets, offer sustainable options, which have shown similar risk and return characteristics to traditional investments. With the return of President Trump to the White House, we expect volatility but believe that the longer-term performance of diversified sustainable investing strategies will be driven more by investment fundamentals and the macro environment than by politics.
In stocks, we think investors can consider the equities of companies that are demonstrating improvements or leadership in ESG principles; or in fixed income; bonds issued by multilateral development banks or those with stated green intentions; or credit strategies with an active approach.
In alternatives, consider sustainable hedge funds. Such funds incorporate ESG factors into their investment processes, aiming to exploit market inefficiencies related to ESG issues. They thus may offer differentiated investment opportunities.
And in private markets, sustainable strategies focus on sectors such as renewable energy and sustainable agriculture, and aim to achieve positive environmental and social outcomes while providing diversification and potential for competitive returns.
Philanthropy and blended finance
We see a growing opportunity set in investments that support sustainability and impact goals while aiming for competitive returns. However, some social and environmental issues cannot be easily addressed by investors seeking market-rate returns owing to factors like size, development stage, location, or business model. Philanthropic or concessionary funding can help attract commercial investors to these areas by reducing risks and encouraging more investment through structures like blended finance. While promising, blended finance deals are complex and need thorough assessment to meet investor expectations.
保持主动投资
最近几年，“被动投资”越来越流行。2023年，全球被动股票基金的资产规模（15.1万亿美元）首次超过主动管理基金（14.3万亿美元）。虽然被动投资有它的优势，但投资者也不能忽视主动投资的重要性，特别是在复杂多变的市场环境下。
• 股票投资
被动投资是一种快速、便宜的方法，可以让你轻松布局整个市场。但如果你想抓住一些新兴或有潜力的机会，比如小盘股、新兴增长主题或新兴市场，被动基金可能就太“笼统”了，没法灵活应对这些变化。主动投资能帮助你更好地捕捉快速发展的行业，或者在市场波动时，利用波动性创造收益，甚至在波动较小时为投资组合提供保护。
• 债券投资
债券投资涉及权重、期限、现金流、久期风险、利率风险和信用风险等复杂因素。如果你自己管理这些，难度不小。相比之下，主动管理的债券基金可以提供更便捷的管理方案，同时在风险控制上也更有优势。
• 另类投资
对于一些更复杂的投资品种，比如对冲基金或私募基金，主动管理的核心目标就是创造超额收益（Alpha），而这正是普通被动投资难以实现的。
践行可持续投资
现在几乎所有资产类别，包括股票、债券、对冲基金和私人市场，都可以选择可持续投资选项。这类投资与传统投资的风险和回报特点类似，但还能帮助你实现环境、社会和治理（ESG）目标。特朗普政府的政策可能带来一定波动，我们认为，从长远来看，市场表现仍然更多取决于投资基本面和宏观环境，而不是政治因素。
• 股票
你可以关注那些在ESG表现上有明显进步或者已经展现出领导力的企业股票。
• 债券
重点选择由多边开发银行发行的债券、明确用于绿色项目的债券，或者主动管理的信用债券策略。
• 另类投资
比如可持续对冲基金，它们通过纳入ESG因素，发掘市场中的低效机会，可能为投资者提供独特的回报来源。
• 私人市场
私人市场中的可持续策略，主要聚焦于可再生能源、可持续农业等领域。这些策略不仅能带来良好的环境和社会影响，还能提供多样化的投资回报。
混合金融
如果你希望通过投资支持可持续发展目标，同时追求市场竞争力的回报，相关机会正在逐步增加。不过，有些社会和环境问题可能很难通过市场化投资完全解决。原因可能是这些项目的规模、发展阶段、地理位置或商业模式不太符合传统投资者的回报预期。
在这种情况下，可以通过慈善资金或优惠融资来吸引更多商业资本。比如，通过混合金融结构，这些资金可以帮助降低投资风险，从而鼓励更多的投资者加入。不过，这类项目往往比较复杂，投资前需要充分评估，以确保符合你的回报和影响目标。
Forecasts（预测）
