达利欧：风雨欲来！
财富
2024-12-05 12:17
广东
本文转载自：地平线全球策略
瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）于北京时间昨夜在 X（前Twitter）上发布了一篇署名文章，题目为：What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration 谈到了特朗普政府领导下不断变化的美国国内和世界秩序，全文不长，但很深刻。
What’s Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration即将发生什么？特朗普政府领导下不断变化的国内和世界秩序Now that the nightmare scenario of a close Trump loss and ensuing fight over the election has been taken off the table by a decisive Trump-led rightist sweep over Harris’s leftist alternative and a number of his key appointments have been announced, a picture of what is likely to happen is emerging. I want to make clear that the picture I am painting is meant to be as accurate as possible without any biased opinions of good or bad, because accuracy is what's most important for making decisions in the best possible way.现在，特朗普领导的右翼势力果断击败哈里斯领导的左翼势力，使特朗普险胜并随之引发大选之争的噩梦场景不复存在，他的一些重要任命也已公布，一幅可能发生的景象正在浮现。我想说明的是，我所描绘的图景是尽可能准确的，不带任何好坏偏见，因为准确性是以最佳方式做出决策的最重要因素。The picture that I see is one of 1) a giant renovation of government and the domestic order aimed at making it run more efficiently, which will include an internal political war to convert that vision into reality, and 2) an “America first” foreign policy and preparation for external war with China, which is perceived to be America’s greatest threat. The most recent analogous period is the 1930s, when such an approach emerged in several countries.我所看到的情况是：1）对政府和国内秩序进行大刀阔斧的改革，目的是提高政府和国内秩序的运行效率，其中包括为将这一愿景变为现实而进行的内部政治战争；2）奉行 "美国优先 "的外交政策，准备与被视为美国最大威胁的中国进行对外战争。最近的类似时期是 20 世纪 30 年代，当时一些国家出现了这种做法。The people Donald Trump is choosing to make this happen with him are: Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who will run the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency; Matt Gaetz, who, as Attorney General (if he gets the Senate’s approval), will push the legal limits of what those who are running this new order can do; RFK Jr., who would radically reform the healthcare system, as Secretary of Health and Human Services; and Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, who will lead the fight against foreign adversaries. Many, many others—some who might be in government and some who will be outside advisors, like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and a few Trump family members—will be on the mission with Trump. They are all win-at-all-cost loyalists to the leader and to the mission of bringing down the so-called “deep state” and replacing it with a new domestic order that they hope will create maximum economic strength and fight foreign enemies.唐纳德-特朗普选择与他一起实现这一目标的人包括埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）和维维克-拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）将负责管理新提议成立的政府效率部；马特-盖茨（Matt Gaetz）将担任司法部长（如果他获得参议院批准），他将挑战管理这一新秩序的人所能做的法律极限；小肯尼迪（RFK Jr.）将担任卫生与公众服务部部长，他将从根本上改革医疗保健系统；马可-鲁比奥（Marco Rubio）将担任国务卿，图尔西-加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard）将担任国家情报总监，皮特-黑格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）将担任国防部长，他将领导打击外国对手的斗争。还有很多很多其他人--有些可能是政府人员，有些将是外部顾问，如塔克-卡尔森、史蒂夫-班农和一些特朗普家族成员--将与特朗普一起执行任务。他们都是不惜一切代价赢得胜利的忠实拥护者，忠实于领袖和打倒所谓 "深层国家 "的使命，并以新的国内秩序取而代之，他们希望新秩序能创造最大的经济实力并打击外敌。Once these people are in place, the same appointment approach will likely be used to purge the government of those accused of being part of the “deep state,” who are not aligned with and loyal to the mission. This will extend to all parts of the government system including those that were previously thought to be less politically/ideologically controlled, such as the military, the Department of Justice, the FBI, the SEC, the Federal Reserve, the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of the Interior, and “Schedule F” government employees (a job classification that President-elect Trump wants to reintroduce to reclassify certain government jobs to remove civil service protections). Most all appointed positions that the president (in conjunction with the Republican-controlled Senate, House, and the Department of Justice) can control will be controlled, to have people aligned with President Trump and his new domestic order in place. In the process of doing this, most everyone in and out of government will be viewed as either an ally or an enemy, and all powers at the disposal of Donald Trump and allies will be used to beat the enemies who are standing in the way of their reforms. I think they will almost certainly have a big impact on changing the domestic and world orders. What will they look like?一旦这些人到位，同样的任命方式很可能会被用于清除政府中那些被指控为 "深层国家 "一部分的人，这些人并不支持和忠诚于使命。这将扩展到政府系统的所有部门，包括那些以前被认为政治/意识形态控制较少的部门，如军队、司法部、联邦调查局、证交会、美联储、食品药品管理局、疾病控制和预防中心、国土安全部、内政部，以及"F 级 "政府雇员（当选总统特朗普希望重新引入的一种职位分类，对某些政府职位进行重新分类，以取消公务员保护）。总统（连同共和党控制的参议院、众议院和司法部）可以控制的大多数任命职位都将受到控制，以便让与特朗普总统及其国内新秩序一致的人就职。在此过程中，政府内外的大多数人都将被视为盟友或敌人，唐纳德-特朗普和盟友所掌握的一切权力都将被用来击败阻碍其改革的敌人。我认为，他们几乎肯定会对改变国内和世界秩序产生重大影响。他们会是什么样子呢？The Changing Domestic OrderIt is now clear that Donald Trump and those he is choosing will reform government and the country like a corporate raider engaging in a hostile takeover of an inefficient company, making huge reforms to it by changing the people, slashing costs, and infusing it with new technologies. Think of Gordon Gekko and the perspective he conveyed in his “greed is good” speech, while recognizing that this is coming from the president of the United States, who is going to take that approach to the central government and the entire country. As mentioned, the most recent analogous historical cases were the hard-rightist states in the 1930s. To be clear, I am not saying that Trump and those in his government are fascist or will behave as fascist leaders did in many respects; what I am saying is that, in order to understand those who are now taking control with nationalistic, protectionist, top-down, government-led economic and social policies, and who have little tolerance for internal opposition and are embroiled in international great powers conflicts, it is worth understanding how those states with analogous policies in the 1930s behaved.现在很清楚，唐纳德-特朗普和他所选择的人将对政府和国家进行改革，就像一个企业掠夺者对一家效率低下的公司进行恶意收购一样，通过改变人员、削减成本和注入新技术对其进行巨大改革。想想戈登-盖科（Gordon Gekko）和他在 "贪婪是好的 "演讲中传达的观点，同时认识到这是出自美国总统之口，他将对中央政府和整个国家采取这种做法。如前所述，最近的类似历史案例是 20 世纪 30 年代的强硬右派国家。明确地说，我并不是说特朗普及其政府中的那些人是法西斯主义者，或者在许多方面会表现得像法西斯领导人那样；我要说的是，为了理解那些现在正以民族主义、保护主义、自上而下、政府主导的经济和社会政策掌控政权，而且几乎不容忍内部反对派并卷入国际大国冲突的人，我们值得了解那些在 20 世纪 30 年代采取类似政策的国家是如何表现的。The economic renovation of the country will, in all likelihood, come via industrial policies that are designed to improve productivity and efficiency without much worry given to the people or issues— such as taking care of the environment, addressing climate change, remediating poverty, or encouraging diversity, equity, and inclusion—that could stand in the way of these things happening. Certain key areas (including the areas that I think are most important, which are education and debt management) will likely be neglected (and would have also been neglected by the Democrats). For as long as the Trump-Musk partnership lasts, they will be the main designers and implementers of this new domestic order.国家的经济革新很可能会通过旨在提高生产力和效率的产业政策来实现，而不会过多地考虑到人或问题，如保护环境、应对气候变化、解决贫困问题，或鼓励多样性、公平性和包容性，而这些问题可能会阻碍这些事情的实现。某些关键领域（包括我认为最重要的领域，即教育和债务管理）很可能会被忽视（民主党也会忽视这些领域）。只要特朗普与马斯克的合作关系持续下去，他们就将是这一国内新秩序的主要设计者和执行者。These policies may well be great for Wall Street and some tech and most businesses that are plagued by regulations and worried about increased taxes. While these entities have been previously restrained in many ways from doing deals, they will be much freer from government constraints. These changes will be great for financial deal makers, banks, and asset managers because they will have more freedom and more money and credit, because capital controls will be eased and the Fed will be pressured to make money easier. These policies will be great for pro-Trump tech companies because they will be allowed to grow and operate in largely unrestrained ways. These policies will also be good for lawyers, who will be busy too. I am already seeing big changes in these people’s plans to do much more under the Trump Administration than they could have done under a Democratic government. Also, AI won’t be as regulated, and tariffs will be used to simultaneously raise tax money and protect domestic producers. If the Fed continues in its path to cut interest rates (which I don’t think it should do), that will also shift a lot of cash that is saved in money market funds and other deposits into other markets, which will be stimulative to markets and the economy.这些政策对于华尔街、一些科技企业和大多数饱受监管困扰、担心税收增加的企业来说，可能是件好事。虽然这些实体以前在进行交易时受到很多限制，但现在它们将更自由地摆脱政府的束缚。这些变化对金融交易商、银行和资产管理公司来说是件好事，因为他们将有更多的自由，有更多的资金和信贷，因为资本管制将得到放松，美联储将受到压力，使货币变得更容易。这些政策对支持特朗普的科技公司大有裨益，因为它们将被允许以基本不受限制的方式发展和运营。这些政策对律师也有好处，因为他们也会很忙。我已经看到这些人的计划发生了很大变化，在特朗普政府的领导下，他们要做的事情比在民主党政府的领导下要多得多。此外，人工智能将不会像以前那样受到监管，关税将被用来同时提高税收和保护国内生产商。如果美联储继续走降息的道路（我认为它不应该这么做），那么也会将大量储蓄在货币市场基金和其他存款中的现金转移到其他市场，这将对市场和经济起到刺激作用。Also, the realization that the United States is in an economic war and a geopolitical war, and could find itself in a military war, with China as well as with others like Russia, Iran, and North Korea, will have big effects on domestic security and domestic policies. For example, ensuring that the U.S. will have acceptable amounts of all key technologies will lead to policies for these technologies to be made in the U.S. (e.g., 20% of the most advanced chips will have to be produced in the U.S. by 2030) or made in allied countries, which will require the central government to have strong and insist on well-implemented energy and regulatory policies that enable these changes to be made.此外，美国意识到自己正处于一场经济战争和地缘政治战争之中，并可能与中国以及俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜等国爆发军事战争，这将对国内安全和国内政策产生重大影响。例如，要确保美国拥有可接受数量的所有关键技术，就必须制定政策，要求这些技术必须在美国生产（例如，到 2030 年，20% 的最先进芯片必须在美国生产）或在盟国生产，这就要求中央政府制定强有力的、坚持实施的能源和监管政策，使这些变化得以实现。The Changing International World OrderThe international world order will change from a) the existing tattered remains of the post-World War II system that was created by the U.S. and its allies, in which there are/were generally agreed-upon global standards of behavior, rules, and governing organizations like the UN, WTO, International Court of Justice, IMF, World Bank, etc. to b) a more fragmented world order, in which the United States will pursue an “America First” policy with clear categorizations of allies, enemies, and nonaligned countries, as there will be greater amounts of economic and geopolitical war and a greater-than-ever chance of military war in the next 10 years. In other words, we are now coming to the end of an era led by the United States, in which countries tried to work out together how to be with each other through multinational organizations with guiding principles and rules, and into a more self-interested, law-of-the-jungle-type order with the United States being one of the two biggest players and China the other— and the fight being largely the classic one of capitalism versus communism (in their contemporary versions).国际世界秩序将从 a) 由美国及其盟国创建的二战后体系的残缺不全的残余，其中有/曾经有普遍认同的全球行为标准、规则和管理组织，如联合国、世贸组织、国际法院、国际货币基金组织、世界银行等，转变为 b) 更加支离破碎的世界秩序，其中美国将奉行 "美国优先 "政策，明确划分盟国、敌国和不结盟国家。到 b) 一个更加支离破碎的世界秩序，在这个秩序中，美国将奉行 "美国优先 "政策，明确划分盟国、敌国和不结盟国家，因为在未来 10 年中，经济和地缘政治战争的数量将会增加，发生军事战争的几率也将超过以往任何时候。换句话说，在美国的领导下，各国试图通过具有指导原则和规则的多国组织来共同解决如何彼此相处的问题，我们现在即将结束这个时代，进入一个更加利己主义的丛林法则型秩序，美国是其中最大的两个参与者之一，中国是另一个参与者--这场斗争在很大程度上是capitalism versus communism （当代版本）的经典斗争。So, concepts of morality and ethics that were shaped by American views of what is moral and ethical will be much less relevant, as the United States will no longer be the world leader in proposing and enforcing these principles. Allies and enemies will be chosen more on the basis of tactical considerations like what the deals will be. The question of which side countries are on will be most important. China will be treated as the primary enemy because it is both the most powerful and the most ideologically opposed, while Russia, North Korea, and Iran are also enemies. In fact, China is widely considered the United States’ single greatest threat, even a greater threat than the domestic threats. As for other countries, I won’t now digress into an explanation of where they stand, but I will say that they all are now categorized as allies and enemies to varying degrees, and this will be a guide for dealing with them. I will, however, say that detailed plans are now being worked out for dealing with each major country and each major subject area. All countries will be given great pressures and possibilities to change their domestic orders to be aligned with, rather than opposed to, the Trump-U.S. leadership and order, and if they don’t get on our side, they will encounter negative consequences. This conflict between the two great powers will create opportunities, most importantly business opportunities, for neutral nonaligned countries.因此，由美国人的道德观和伦理观形成的道德和伦理概念的相关性将大大降低，因为美国将不再是提出和执行这些原则的世界领导者。盟友和敌人的选择将更多地基于战术上的考虑，比如将达成什么样的交易。国家站在哪一边将是最重要的问题。中国将被视为主要敌人，因为它既是最强大的国家，也是意识形态上最对立的国家，而俄罗斯、朝鲜和伊朗也是敌人。事实上，中国被广泛认为是美国最大的威胁，甚至比国内威胁更大。至于其他国家，我现在不想离题解释它们的立场，但我要说的是，它们现在都在不同程度上被归类为盟友和敌人，这将是与它们打交道的指南。不过，我要说的是，目前正在制定详细计划，以应对每个主要国家和每个主要主题领域。所有国家都将面临巨大的压力和可能性，以改变其国内秩序，与特朗普-美国的领导和秩序保持一致，而不是对立，如果他们不站在我们这一边，就会遇到负面后果。两个大国之间的冲突将为中立的不结盟国家创造机会，最重要的是商机。This change in this world-order dynamic will also have big implications for the developing world (or the “Global South” as it’s now called), and therefore the whole world, because it contains roughly 85% of the world’s population and will likely go its own way, because the U.S. will no longer lead a common world order based on certain ideals and other countries won’t necessarily want to follow the U.S. The U.S. and China will be competing for allies, with China generally believed to be in a much better position to win over nonaligned countries because China is more important economically and does a better job exerting its soft power. Given these changes in the world order, nonaligned countries that 1) are financially strong—i.e., have good income statements and balance sheets, 2) have internal order and capital markets that facilitate people and the country to be productive, and 3) are not in an international war will benefit.这种世界秩序态势的变化也将对发展中世界（或现在所说的 "全球南部"）乃至整个世界产生重大影响，因为发展中世界约占世界人口的 85%，而且很可能会走自己的路，因为美国将不再领导基于特定理想的共同世界秩序，而其他国家也不一定愿意追随美国。美国和中国将争夺盟友，一般认为中国在争取不结盟国家方面更有优势，因为中国在经济上更重要，在软实力方面做得更好。鉴于世界秩序发生的这些变化，以下不结盟国家将从中获益：1）经济实力雄厚，即拥有良好的收入报表和资产负债表；2）拥有有利于人民和国家生产的内部秩序和资本市场；3）没有卷入国际战争。More Specifically, to Elaborate, There Will Be……More government influence to achieve the government’s objectives, even if that comes at the expense of our free-market, profit-seeking system, with debates between the conservatives who favor this top-down direction and those who favor the free market more. Along these lines, we should expect more government influence on private markets to achieve the government’s objectives. This is needed to achieve the grand plan to reshape the economy and prepare for war. So, we should keep in mind that cost efficiency and national security achieved by the government working with national-champion companies is the primary objective, not profit-making alone, because profit making won’t achieve those goals. We should pay attention to policy shifts that will drive what areas of the economy will benefit most (e.g., the energy and minerals sectors that support the AI technology sector). While there will be free-market winners, there are obvious cases where the best companies in the United States are not good enough to give the United States what is needed (e.g., in advanced semiconductors), so key relationships with aligned producers (e.g., TSMC) to produce in the U.S. are needed to minimize all dependencies on foreign adversaries. Besides the need to domestically produce essential technologies, there is the need to domestically produce steel, autos, and many other essential items. That will mean more onshoring and friendshoring. There is also a recognized sabotage risk of being cut off in a number of ways that will have to be dealt with.……为了实现政府的目标，即使这可能以牺牲自由市场和追求利润的系统为代价，也会出现更多的政府干预。这引发了保守派内部的争论，一方支持这种自上而下的模式，另一方则更倾向于自由市场。基于这一趋势，我们可以预期政府会对私营市场施加更多影响，以实现其目标。这种干预是实现重塑经济和备战宏伟计划的必要条件。因此，我们应该认识到，通过政府与国家冠军企业合作实现成本效益和国家安全是首要目标，而不仅仅是追求利润，因为仅仅追求利润无法实现这些目标。我们需要关注政策的变化，这将决定哪些经济领域受益最大（例如支持人工智能技术行业的能源和矿产领域）。尽管自由市场中会有赢家，但显然有些情况下美国最优秀的公司仍不足以满足国家的需求（例如在先进半导体领域）。因此，需要与友好生产商（如台积电）建立关键合作关系，在美国国内进行生产，以尽量减少对外国对手的依赖。除了需要在国内生产关键技术外，还需要国内生产钢铁、汽车以及其他许多重要商品。这将意味着更多的回流生产和“友岸外包”（friendshoring）。此外，人们也认识到存在被以多种方式切断供应的破坏风险，必须对此加以应对。…A massive deregulatory push in support of cost-efficient production.......为支持成本效益型生产，大规模放松监管。…Immigration and deportation actions, with the initial emphasis being on closing the border and deporting undocumented immigrants with criminal records.
……移民和驱逐行动，最初的重点是封锁边境并驱逐有犯罪记录的无证移民。…Trade and tariff reform.
...贸易和关税改革。…Challenges in assembling and working with U.S. allies. Japan is our most important ally in the geopolitical conflict with China, so what is now happening there politically is important. Other allies are the U.K. and Australia, but they are not great powers. Europe is weak, has its hands full with its own problems, and doesn’t have a dog in this fight, while it has Russia on its doorstep and can’t fight it without the U.S.’s NATO support. Most other countries don’t want to get into the fight, as what is being fought for by the United States isn’t as important to them as it is to the United States, and they have more economic dependencies on China than on the U.S. The nonaligned Global South rising powers—which, along with China and Russia, are members of BRICS—are countries to pay attention to.……在联合并与美国盟友合作方面面临的挑战。在与中国的地缘冲突中，日本是我们最重要的盟友，因此那里目前发生的政治事件非常重要。其他盟友还有英国和澳大利亚，但它们都不是大国。欧洲软弱无力，自身问题缠身，在这场斗争中毫无优势可言，而俄罗斯就在它的家门口，没有美国的北约支持，它根本无法与之抗衡。大多数其他国家并不想卷入这场斗争，因为美国为之奋斗的东西对它们来说并不像对美国那么重要，而且它们在经济上对中国的依赖要大于对美国的依赖。不结盟的全球南方崛起大国--它们与中国和俄罗斯同为金砖国家成员--是值得关注的国家。…The high economic costs of being the dominant world power—i.e., of having the most important technologies, a strong military, and being able to provide soft power—will be greater than the profit-making approach can provide, so how that economic reality will be handled will need to be worked out.......成为世界霸主的高昂经济成本--即拥有最重要的技术、强大的军事力量以及提供软实力的能力--将比盈利方式所能提供的更大，因此需要解决如何处理这一经济现实的问题。…The need to lower taxes to keep the electorate happy and to keep money in the hands of those who are most productive. Trump and his advisors believe that a lower corporate tax rate than currently exists (around 20%) will raise total taxation and raise productivity. That perspective is good for the markets.
……降低税收的必要性，以保持选民满意，并将资金留在最具生产力的人手中。特朗普及其顾问认为，比当前水平更低的公司税率（约20%）将增加整体税收收入并提高生产率。这种观点对市场有利。…Significant reforms of the healthcare system.There is a very limited time—the first 100 days and then the first two years—to get these difficult-to-do things done, so there will have to be vicious prioritization. We don’t yet know what will be prioritized and how successful the new administration will be when the force of its aspirations meets the relatively immovable object of the entrenched system. It certainly will be an interesting and important time, so let’s stay in touch.完成这些难以完成的工作的时间非常有限--头 100 天，然后是头两年，因此必须狠狠地确定优先次序。我们还不知道哪些事情会被优先考虑，也不知道新政府在其愿望的力量遇到根深蒂固的制度这一相对不可动摇的物体时会取得多大的成功。这肯定将是一个有趣而重要的时刻，让我们保持联系。The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.本文所表达的观点仅代表个人观点，与 Bridgewater 无关。
