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往期回顾
近期Golden免费的NBA推荐成绩还是可以的，上期太阳没能打出，此前命中4倍胜分差实单，今天选择独行侠vs爵士的大小分分析！而重点推荐成绩也非常不错，近期是10中7！而且命中10倍胜分差实单！连续3天中单啦！今天重心将出击【独行侠VS爵士】的让分方向！记得留意！长按识别下方二维码或点击文末【阅读原文】即可看到！
今日主力
周四305 独行侠VS爵士
今日免费分析
10:00 NBA 独行侠VS爵士（主）
推荐：大分（231.5）
竞篮：周四305 大分
胜分差：上方重点图片扫码获取
先看爵士队，这支球队目前可谓是内忧外患。伤病如同噩梦一般缠绕着他们，亨德里克斯和马尔卡宁的伤病缺阵给球队带来了沉重打击，虽马尔卡宁近期复出，但还在艰难地寻找竞技状态。而在战术安排上，将科林斯放在替补席并未达到理想效果，因为替补阵容中缺乏能为他稳定输送炮弹的后卫。更严重的是，爵士队在组织后卫这个关键位置上存在严重短板，塞克斯顿和克拉克森都是进攻优先的球员，然而他们的得分效率却并不理想。
这一系列问题导致球队在场上陷入混乱，场均失误高达 18.2 次，雄踞联盟榜首，进攻效率更是惨不忍睹地垫底，而防守效率也接近联盟最差水平。在面对独行侠时，他们孱弱的防守很难抵挡住独行侠后卫线和侧翼的强大火力，进攻端又难以保证足够的得分效率，这无疑让他们在这场比赛中处于极为不利的地位。
再看独行侠，他们在竞争激烈的西部分区排名看似靠后，但这绝不能掩盖他们的实力。实际上，西部竞争的残酷程度让胜率 50% 左右的独行侠排名受到影响。独行侠是一支有着不俗实力的球队，他们本应有着更好的战绩。经过上赛季总决赛的失利，球队管理层深刻反思，针对阵容缺陷进行了针对性补强，在侧翼引入了汤普森、马绍尔、格兰姆斯和丁威迪等球员，这一系列操作大大提升了侧翼的高度和投射能力，并且已经收到了不错的成效。
然而，独行侠的命运很大程度上还是系于东契奇和欧文这对核心组合。本赛季开局阶段，东契奇的表现有些差强人意，各项数据相较于上赛季有明显下滑，在关键球处理上也表现平平，这使得球队在关键时刻的压力更多地落在了欧文身上，球队稳定性受到一定影响。不过，独行侠本赛季在防守端的表现可圈可点，防守效率位列联盟第 6。只是在进攻端，他们目前的效率值仅排在联盟第 12，与上赛季那种犀利的进攻势头相比有所下滑，这也导致他们在末节关键时刻经常出现咬不住分差的情况，惜败于掘金、太阳和步行者等队就是例证。
但在这场与爵士的比赛中，情况有所不同。爵士队脆弱的防线对于独行侠来说是一个绝佳的机会，独行侠的进攻火力虽然没有上赛季那般凶猛，但面对爵士这样防守糟糕的球队，他们有足够的能力撕开防线。无论是东契奇、欧文的个人单打，还是侧翼球员的投射，都将给爵士队制造巨大的麻烦。而爵士队尽管问题重重，但他们在进攻端也并非毫无还手之力，塞克斯顿和克拉克森等人在某些时刻还是能够得分的。双方在防守上都存在问题，这就为高比分的产生创造了条件。独行侠有能力在爵士队身上打出高分，而爵士队也可能在独行侠相对薄弱的防守环节中找到得分机会。所以，综合来看，这场独行侠与爵士的比赛，打出大分的可能性非常大。
原文：
Let's take a look at the Jazz team first. This team is currently facing both internal and external challenges. Injuries have plagued them like a nightmare, and the absence of Hendricks and Marcanin has dealt a heavy blow to the team. Although Marcanin has recently returned, he is still struggling to find his competitive form. In terms of tactical arrangement, placing Collins on the bench did not achieve the desired effect, as there was a lack of defenders in the bench who could provide him with stable ammunition. More seriously, the Jazz have a serious weakness in the key position of point guard, with Sexton and Clarkson being offensive first players, but their scoring efficiency is not ideal.
This series of problems has led the team to chaos on the field, with an average of 18.2 errors per game, ranking first in the league. Their offensive efficiency is also at the bottom of the table, and their defensive efficiency is close to the worst level in the league. When facing the Mavericks, their weak defense makes it difficult to withstand the strong firepower of the Mavericks' defense line and flank, and their offensive end is also difficult to ensure sufficient scoring efficiency, which undoubtedly puts them in an extremely disadvantageous position in this game.
Looking at the Mavericks again, they may seem to rank lower in the fiercely competitive Western division, but this cannot hide their strength. In fact, the brutality of competition in the West has affected the ranking of the Mavericks with a win rate of around 50%. The Mavericks are a team with impressive strength, and they should have had a better record. After the defeat in last season's finals, the team management deeply reflected and made targeted reinforcements to address the deficiencies in the lineup. They introduced players such as Thompson, Marshall, Grimes, and Ding Weidi to the flank, greatly improving the height and shooting ability of the flank, and have already achieved good results.
However, the fate of the Mavericks largely depends on the core combination of Doncic and Irving. At the beginning of this season, Doncic's performance was somewhat unsatisfactory, with significant declines in various data compared to last season and mediocre performance in key ball handling. This has placed more pressure on Irving during critical moments, affecting the stability of the team to a certain extent. However, the Mavericks have performed remarkably well on the defensive end this season, ranking sixth in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. However, on the offensive end, their current efficiency value ranks only 12th in the league, which has declined compared to the sharp offensive momentum of last season. This has also led to their frequent inability to grasp the point difference in critical moments of the final quarter, as evidenced by their narrow defeats to teams such as the Nuggets, Suns, and Pacers.
But in this match against the Jazz, the situation is different. The Jazz's fragile defense is a great opportunity for the Mavericks. Although the Mavericks' offensive firepower is not as fierce as last season, they have enough ability to tear open the defense against a team like the Jazz with poor defense. Whether it's the individual singles of Doncic and Irving, or the projections of the wing players, they will create huge trouble for the Jazz team. Despite facing numerous problems, the Jazz team is not completely powerless in their offensive end, with players such as Sexton and Clarkson still able to score at certain moments. Both sides have problems in defense, which creates conditions for a high score. The Mavericks have the ability to score high on the Jazz, and the Jazz may also find scoring opportunities in the Mavericks' relatively weak defensive areas. So, overall, there is a high possibility of scoring big points in this game between the Mavericks and Jazz.
