MESI· 观点 | 刘中民教授就美国增强在中东的军事存在接受Global Times采访

The Pentagon has announced plans to deploy additional combat aircraft and missile-equipped warships to the Middle East, anticipating potential Iranian retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Chinese analysts said Saturday that an open Israel-Iran conflict is not in Washington's interest, yet the US has failed to impose substantial restraints on the recent assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, which have dangerously escalated tensions.

Following the US President Joe Biden's Thursday commitment to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about new defensive US military deployments to the region, the US has decided to send an additional fighter squadron and more warships to the Middle East to help defend Israel should Iran react militarily to this week's assassination of Hamas' top political leader in Tehran which Iran has blamed on Israel, US media reported on Saturday.

The US will also maintain an aircraft carrier presence in the Middle East as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt that was on a short-term deployment to the Middle East, per ABC news.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had also approved sending additional Navy cruisers and destroyers - which can shoot down ballistic missiles - to the Middle East and Europe, Reuters reported on Saturday. 

The latest deployment of US military forces to the Middles East symbolizes support for Israel while practically increasing US military presence and enhancing deterrence against Iran. The aim is to control the Middle East situation, seeking to balance the tensions between Israel and Iran, Liu Zhongmin, a professor from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times on Saturday. 

Also on US local time Thursday, US media outlet Axios revealed that President Biden privately demanded in a tough call that Netanyahu stop escalating tensions in the region and move immediately toward a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

The New York Times in a Friday headline report titled Netanyahu, Defiant, Appears to Have Gone Rogue, Risking a Regional War also criticized that ignoring the efforts of President Biden and the condemnation of many allies, the Israeli prime minister is forcing the pace of the war and feeding the revolt of the far right.

Absent a clear goal in the war, however, Mr Netanyahu's defiance is dividing Israel from its allies and within the country itself. It has further shaken trust in his leadership. It is fueling suspicions that he is keeping the country at war to keep himself in power. It is intensifying a deep rift inside the society — about the fate of Israeli hostages, the conduct of the war and the rule of law — that is challenging the institutional bonds that hold Israel together, the NYT article noted . 

The US-Israel relationship must be viewed from two perspectives. On one hand, support for Israel has been a long held bipartisan position in the US, with steadfast backing, Liu said. However, real differences do exist. Amid the US election and strategic withdrawal from the Middle East, an escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is not in US' interest.

The US' current deployments are preventive measures, but the reported warnings to Israel are largely performative, Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University, told the Global Times on Saturday. 

In reality, the US has not imposed substantial restrictions on Israel's risky actions, Zhu noted. 

Zhu predicted that the Iran might take similar air strike actions on Israel as retaliation after Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus, while the scale of such strikes or missile numbers might be higher. There is also a possibility of larger attacks on certain military targets than before, he said. 

Commenting on divergence within US-Israel relations, Zhu said that the main difference between the US and Israel lies in their long-term and short-term goals. Israel aims to resolve the Iran issue in the short term, while the US seeks to set aside the Iran issue amid its strategic withdrawal from the Middle East and focus on great power competition.

The pressure the US exerts on Israel is clearly insufficient, or rather, it has never truly exerted real pressure on Israel. Biden is unlikely to take significant actions to address this issue, especially with the upcoming election, Zhu said,

The Biden administration appears to lack both the capacity and willingness to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the remaining time before the election, while Netanyahu is delaying the conflict until after the US election to prolong his political career, Liu speculated. 

Israelis are bracing for a response to the assassinations of Hamas's political chief and a commander with the Hezbollah, Israel-based analysts tell Al Jazeera.

Anticipating a swift response, Israel's military said it was on high alert, according to local media.

来源：Global Times

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