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The surprising stagnation of Asia’s middle classes

节选自经济学人Asia | Middle-class malaise

In August Amalia Adininggar, Indonesia’s statistician-in-chief, appeared in parliament with bad news. The country’s middle class had shrunk. Between 2021 and 2024, 6m Indonesians had fallen into the “aspiring middle class”, an official euphemism for being a stone’s throw away from poverty. The middle-class share of the population had fallen to 17% from 22% before the pandemic. Asked about the grim trend the next day, Joko Widodo, then the president, deflected: “This issue exists in almost all countries.”

2024年8月，印度尼西亚首席统计官阿玛莉亚·阿迪宁加尔在议会中宣布了一个令人担忧的消息：该国的中产阶级正在缩小。从2021年到2024年，600万印度尼西亚人降到了“渴望中产阶级”这一官方用语——意思是他们的生活水平几乎已经接近贫困线。中产阶级在全国人口中的比例从疫情前的22%下降到了17%。第二天，时任总统佐科·维多多在回应这一严峻现象时表示：“这种问题几乎所有国家都有。”

"statistician-in-chief" — 这一表达指的是印度尼西亚的首席统计官，既明确又正式，能体现出职位的权威性和责任感。

"appeared in parliament with bad news" — 这个短语生动地描述了阿玛莉亚·阿迪宁加尔在议会中的出现，不仅传递了消息的沉重，还暗示了这个消息对国家的影响。

"middle class had shrunk" — "shrink"（收缩、萎缩）是一个非常有力的动词，形象地描绘了中产阶级规模的缩小，突出了不利的社会经济现象。

"fallen into the 'aspiring middle class'" — “fallen into”一词用来形容人群从一个社会阶层滑落到另一个阶层，暗示了他们的经济状况变得更加脆弱。

"Aspiring middle class"（渴望中产阶级）这个官方委婉说法巧妙地表达了这些人虽然有着向上流动的愿望，但却非常接近贫困线。

"a stone’s throw away from poverty" — 这个短语非常形象地描绘了这些人离贫困线的距离，仅一步之遥，突显出其生活的脆弱性和不稳定性。

"the middle-class share of the population had fallen" — 这个表述清晰地传达了中产阶级在整体人口中的比例下降，带有统计性，具有很强的说服力。

"grim trend" — "grim"（严峻的，令人沮丧的）是一个生动且有力的形容词，传递了社会经济形势的严峻性，给人一种压迫感。

"deflected" — 这里用"deflect"（转移、回避）来描述总统佐科·维多多的回应，暗示他没有正面回答问题，而是用一种回避的方式应对。

"This issue exists in almost all countries" — 这句话通过“几乎所有国家都有这个问题”来淡化印度尼西亚的困境，把焦点从国内问题转移到全球性问题上，使用了避免责任的策略。

He was not wrong. Asia’s middle class is not growing as it once did. Between 1991 and 2014, the average annual growth rate in the number of Asian middle-class households was 6%, according to our analysis. In the past decade, it has slowed to 2%. In a few countries, including China, it has shrunk. Exclude India, where the middle class is still growing, and Asia’s middle classes have stagnated. At stake are the futures of 2.7bn people in the middle class, or 72% of the population of developing Asia.

他说的也没错。亚洲的中产阶级增长已经不再像过去那样迅猛。根据我们的分析，从1991年到2014年，亚洲中产阶级家庭的年均增长率为6%。但在过去十年里，这一增速已降至2%。在一些国家，中产阶级的规模甚至出现了萎缩。如果排除印度——在那里中产阶级依然在增长——亚洲其他地区的中产阶级已经停滞不前。这个问题关系到27亿人的未来，占发展中亚洲总人口的72%。

He was not wrong." — 这个简洁的句子直接引出话题，突显了对前述观点的确认。它简单而有力地承接了前文，表明接下来将对该观点进行分析。

"Asia’s middle class is not growing as it once did." — 这句话简明扼要地表达了亚洲中产阶级增长的放缓，突出了“曾经的增长”这一对比，既强调了变化，也引发读者的关注。

"the average annual growth rate" — 这个表述非常具体，展示了数据的精准性，增加了论点的可信度。

"slowed to 2%" — “slowed”与之前的“6%”形成鲜明对比，直接传递了增长放缓的趋势，给人以明显的冲击感。

 "In a few countries, including China, it has shrunk." — “shrunk”一词生动地传达了某些国家中产阶级规模的减少，突显了这一现象的严重性，

· "Exclude India, where the middle class is still growing, and Asia’s middle classes have stagnated." — 这一部分通过排除印度的情况，进一步强调了亚洲其他地区中产阶级的停滞，使用了“stagnated”（停滞）这一负面词汇，突出了当前的困境。

 "At stake are the futures of 2.7bn people" — “At stake”是一种强调重要性和紧迫性的表达，暗示中产阶级问题不仅仅是经济数据的问题，而是关乎27亿人未来的重大问题。

·"72% of the population of developing Asia" — 这一数据非常具体，明确指出了受影响人群的比例，给出直观的社会影响，增强了论点的说服力。

The pace of middle-class growth matters enormously—and not just for poverty reduction or the profits of big international firms. An empowered middle class can expand individual rights and lead to a more accountable state. One influential argument holds that a rising middle class spurs regulations on child labour: as technological change raises the returns to skilled labour, middle-class parents face incentives to educate their children instead of sending them to the factories. Most stable democracies have a large middle class.

中产阶级的增长速度至关重要——这不仅仅是贫困减少或大型跨国公司利润的问题。一个有影响力的中产阶级能够拓展个人权利，并促进政府更具责任感。一个有影响力的观点认为，中产阶级的崛起会推动关于童工的法规：随着技术变革提高了技能劳动的回报，中产阶级的父母有动机让孩子接受教育，而不是送去工厂工作。大多数稳定的民主国家都有庞大的中产阶级。

"The pace of middle-class growth matters enormously" — 这一开头直接点明了中产阶级增长速度的重要性，用“matters enormously”强调了其对社会和经济的深远影响，具有很强的引导性。

"not just for poverty reduction or the profits of big international firms" — 这个表述有效地拓展了话题的视角，表明中产阶级增长的重要性不仅仅体现在减贫或国际大企业的利润上，涵盖了更广泛的社会层面。

 "An empowered middle class can expand individual rights and lead to a more accountable state." — 这句话通过“empowered middle class”（有权力的中产阶级）和“expand individual rights”（扩展个人权利）等表达，突出了中产阶级在推动社会进步中的重要作用，暗示了它对民主和治理的正面影响。

 "One influential argument holds that..." — “One influential argument”引出了有力的论点，呈现出这一论证在社会学或政治学领域的重要性，增强了说服力。

 "a rising middle class spurs regulations on child labour" — 这句话通过“spurs”（激励）与“regulations on child labour”（关于童工的法规）形成对比，突出了中产阶级增长对社会规范和法律制度的积极推动作用。

 "as technological change raises the returns to skilled labour" — 这部分通过“technological change”与“returns to skilled labour”强调了科技进步对劳动市场和家庭教育的影响，突出了技术发展与中产阶级教育选择之间的联系。

 "middle-class parents face incentives to educate their children instead of sending them to the factories" — 这句话通过“incentives”（激励）强调了中产阶级家长对孩子教育的重视，暗示了教育投资在社会结构中的作用。

  "Most stable democracies have a large middle class." — 这句话简洁有力，点明了中产阶级和民主稳定之间的关系，用“stable democracies”与“大中产阶级”对比，凸显了中产阶级对社会稳定和民主发展的关键作用

To handle this, we have created a measure to track the Asian middle class using data from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), our sister company (see chart 1). We opted for an absolute measure, defining “middle class” as households making between $3,000 and $25,000 in disposable income a year, in inflation-adjusted terms and holding exchange rates fixed. Our data covers 3.7bn people, nearly 80% of Asia, leaving out the rich economies of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore, and also places where data is scarce, such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Myanmar and Nepal.

为了解决这个问题，我们创建了一个衡量亚洲中产阶级的指标，使用了《经济学人智库》(EIU)的数据，这是我们的姊妹公司（见图表1）。我们选择了一个绝对标准，将“中产阶级”定义为年可支配收入在3000到25000美元之间的家庭，所有数据都经过通胀调整，并且固定汇率。我们的数据覆盖了37亿人，几乎占亚洲总人口的80%，但排除了日本、台湾、韩国、香港和新加坡等富裕经济体，以及阿富汗、孟加拉国、不丹、柬埔寨、缅甸和尼泊尔等数据缺乏的地区。

"To handle this, we have created a measure to track the Asian middle class" — 这句话简洁明了，表明了作者为了解决问题而采取的具体行动，具有引导性，明确介绍了接下来的分析框架。

"using data from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), our sister company" — 通过提到“Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)”以及“sister company”，增加了数据来源的权威性和可信度，突出了分析的专业性。

"We opted for an absolute measure" — "opted for"表达了选择的过程，突出了解释背后的一种明确决策。同时，“absolute measure”指的是绝对度量标准，带有更严格、客观的分析方式。

"defining 'middle class' as households making between $3,000 and $25,000 in disposable income a year" — 这一表述非常具体，明确界定了“中产阶级”的标准，并通过具体的数值（$3,000 到 $25,000）让读者一目了然，增加了论证的透明度和严谨性。

 "in inflation-adjusted terms and holding exchange rates fixed" — 这一补充解释了所用数据的处理方式，通过“inflation-adjusted terms”（通胀调整后）和“exchange rates fixed”（固定汇率）说明了数据的标准化，增强了数据的可靠性和对比性。

 "Our data covers 3.7bn people, nearly 80% of Asia" — 这个数据展示了覆盖的广泛性，令人印象深刻，突出了分析的广度和影响力，强调了其代表性。

"leaving out the rich economies of Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore" — 这一部分通过排除经济较为富裕的国家和地区，进一步说明了分析对象的定位，表明聚焦的是发展中亚洲的中产阶级。

 "and also places where data is scarce, such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Myanmar and Nepal" — 列举出数据缺乏的地区，增强了分析的严谨性和透明度，突出了数据的局限性，同时也帮助读者理解这些地区被排除的原因。

The most striking finding is a steady deceleration in the growth of the middle class. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, an average of 19m households in Asia joined the middle class every year, and did so at an increasingly rapid pace. That acceleration tailed off over the 2010s.

最引人注目的发现是中产阶级增长的持续放缓。在1990年代和2000年代，亚洲每年大约有1900万个家庭加入中产阶级，并且增长速度逐年加快。但这种加速增长在2010年开始放缓

Since 2021 just 12m households have been added to the middle class per year, and the vast majority of growth is coming from a single source: India. Without it, the post-pandemic rate of addition collapses to only 1.7m households a year. EIU forecasts suggest that, outside India, the Asian middle class will soon stop growing, and could even shrink. This is not just down to slower overall population growth. Indonesia’s middle class is stagnating despite a demographic tailwind. In our numbers China’s middle class began declining before its population did, and the shift has been sharper, too. In six out of nine countries we considered, the share of households in the middle class has stopped rising and in four of nine it is falling.

自2021年以来，每年新增的中产阶级家庭仅为1200万，且绝大部分增长来自印度。如果没有印度，后疫情时代的中产新增速度将降至每年仅170万家庭。经济学人智库（EIU）预测，除印度外，亚洲中产阶级将很快停止增长，甚至可能出现萎缩。这不仅仅是因为整体人口增长放缓。尽管印度尼西亚的人口结构有优势，但印尼的中产阶级仍在停滞。在我们的统计中，中国的中产阶级在其人口出现下降之前就已经开始萎缩，并且这一变化更加急剧。在我们考察的九个国家中，有六个国家中产阶级家庭的比例已停止上升，四个国家则出现了下降。

Even in India, impressive middle-class growth has been lopsided. It has been propelled by the 130m households in India’s upper-middle class, or those making between $5,000 and $25,000. By contrast, real incomes among the 150m households earning between $1,000 and $5,000 have stagnated (see chart 2).

即便是在印度，中产阶级的增长也呈现出不平衡的趋势。印度上层中产阶级的130百万家庭（年收入在5,000美元到25,000美元之间）推动了这一增长。相比之下，年收入在1,000美元到5,000美元之间的1.5亿家庭的实际收入则停滞不前（见图表2）。

Why is Asian middle-class growth stalling? In part it is a by-product of getting richer. As countries develop, their middle classes (measured in absolute terms) tend to approach a stable share of the population.

为什么亚洲中产阶级增长停滞？部分原因是随着国家变得更加富裕，中产阶级的增长自然会放缓。随着经济发展，中产阶级的比例通常会逐渐趋于稳定，增长速度也会减慢。

Yet in developing Asia, this is not the whole story. Unsolved structural problems still hold back the middle class. Several developing Asian countries face widespread informality of the workforce. A study from 2021 found that Indonesian workers who fell into informality because of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 suffered a lasting 32% drop in subsequent earnings. Covid-19 caused informal employment to rise by five percentage points in Indonesia after 2020, to 61% of workers. Meanwhile in Thailand high household debt strangles middle-class borrowers.

然而，在亚洲，情况并非如此。未解决的结构性问题仍然制约着中产阶级的发展。许多发展中的亚洲国家的劳动力市场存在广泛的非正规就业问题。2021年的一项研究发现，由于1997年亚洲金融危机，印度尼西亚的临时工收入下降了32%。而新冠疫情导致印度尼西亚的临时工比例在2020年后上升了5个百分点，达到了61%。与此同时，在泰国，高额的家庭债务则压缩了中产阶级借款人的经济空间。

Once reliable drivers of growth have also stopped working. In the past decade foreign direct investment and exports have kept Vietnam’s middle class growing at an average 3% annual rate, faster than the regional average. But that is half the pace it grew at between 1990 and 2014. Vietnam has struggled to train its workforce. Labour productivity lags peer countries and firms face shortages of skilled workers.

曾经推动增长的因素也开始失效。过去十年，外资和出口帮助越南的中产阶级年均增长3%，这一增速高于全国平均水平。但这个增速也仅为1990至2014年间的一半。越南在培养劳动力方面遇到了困难，劳动生产率低于同行国家，许多企业也面临技术工人短缺的问题。（来自：一天一篇外刊）