前章：
1. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（1）【前言】
2. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（2）【第一章：失控（1）】【成品组装经理雷】
3. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（3）【第一章：失控（2）-计划经理苏珊】
4. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（4）【第一章：失控（3）-制造总监吉姆】
5. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（5）【第一章：失控（4）-采购经理安妮塔】
6. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（6）【第一章：失控（5）-销售总监山姆】
7. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（7）【第一章：失控（6）-财务经理珍妮丝】
8. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（8）【第一章：失控（7）-工程总监皮特】
9. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（9）【第二章：新的开始（1）-咨询顾问罗斯】
10. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（10）【第二章：新的开始（2）-动员上下级】
11. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（11）【第三章：面对现实（1）-初步沟通】
12. S&OP经典书籍连载：企业销售与运营计划（12）【第三章：面对现实（2）-有效果与高效率的区别】
By the look on his face, it is obvious that Sam Wente, the sales director, does not yet understand. He raises his hand. “Mark may get it, but I don’t,” he says. “I don’t see how being out of sync causes all the problems you mentioned simultaneously.”
很明显，销售总监山姆温特还不明白。他举起手。“马克明白了，我还没有” 他说。“我还没有明白因为没有同步导致提到的问题一个个发生。”
“Let me use an analogy,” Ross says. “Picture an orchestra warming up. For those of you who have been to a live performance of an orchestra, the warm-up period sounds like what?”
“让我打个比方，”罗斯说。“以乐队为例，已经到现场表演的乐团开始热身的时候发出的声音，这个你觉得听起来像什么？”
“Noise,” says Anita Cooper, the purchasing manager.
“噪音”，安妮塔说（采购经理）
“Exactly,” Ross says. “When the orchestra is warming up, it is a group of individually talented people all playing independently, out of sync. What they produce is noise.”
“没错，”罗斯说。“当乐队正在热身时，这是一群天才们在各自玩各自的，脱离同步。他们产生的就是噪音。”
“Now think about the performance itself,” Ross continues. “When the conductor leads the orchestra and every talented individual plays in harmony with others, what we hear is music, beautiful music.”
“现在想想表演本身，”罗斯继续说，“当指挥开始指挥乐队和每一个天才乐师和谐共奏的时候，我们听到的是音乐，美妙的音乐了。
“Let me try another analogy,” he says. “What happens when the timing of your car’s engine needs to be adjusted, or when the timing of the combustion cycle in the cylinders is not proper?”
“让我试试另外一个比喻，”他说“当你的车子的发动机需要调教的时候，或者当气缸的循环冲程不对的话，会怎么样”
“The engine runs rough, if it runs at all,” answers Ray Guy, the final assembly Manager.
“如果发动机能运转的话，它工作不顺畅，”最终装配经理雷·盖伊回答说。
“That’s right, and what else happens?” Ross asks.
“那是对的，会发生什么呢？”罗斯问。
“What do you mean?” Ray replies.
“你什么意思？”雷回答。
“I mean,” Ross says, “what other things happen as a consequence of the timing being off? You gave us one consequence: the engine runs rough.”
“我的意思是，”罗斯说，“时间不定还会发生什么事情呢？你给了我们一个后果：发动机运转不顺畅。”
“Well, if the engine is running rough, it will need more fuel for the car to travel the same distance. This will cause the owner to spend more money for gasoline. Some of the engine components will wear more quickly, causing other problems to occur,” Ray says and then pauses. problems to occur,” Ray says and then pauses.
“好吧，如果发动机运转不畅，汽车行驶相同距离则需要更多的燃油。这将使车主花更多的钱买汽油。有些发动机部件磨损更快，导致其他毛病产生，”雷说，然后停了下来。
“Ross,” he continues, “I think I see what you are trying to show us. In this case, the timing of the engine is the root cause of potentially a lot of different problems or, more correctly, symptoms, which occur simultaneously.”
“罗斯，”雷说“我明白你的意思了，“在这种情况下，发动机消耗就是各种问题的源泉，导致一系列并发症问题接踵而来”
“That’s right,” Ross says. “Now let me be more specific to a manufacturing company. Let’s say that demand is coming in faster than manufacturing and engineering expected. What is the result?”
“是的，”罗斯说。“现在让我来回到具体的公司上来。需求如果超过了制造和工程的速度。结果会是什么？”
Peter Newfeld, the product development/engineering director, thrusts his hand in the air. “Lead times increase, since we would not have enough engineers to handle the work in the standard lead time.”
工程部开发主任彼得，“交货时间的增加，因为我们没有足够的工程师在标准交货时间内完成工作。”
Jim Simpson, the manufacturing director, interrupts. “The lead time may increase in reality, but the company does not acknowledge it. We don’t tell customers. We don’t even tell ourselves until we are truly in trouble. I have my people working overtime trying to ship to the standard lead times, but we find that to do so, we have to expedite materials and engineering. As if expediting engineering is possible!”
生产的总监吉姆辛普森打断说到。“交货时间可能会增加，在现实中，但公司又意识不到这个问题，我们也没有告诉客户，我们甚至没有告诉我们自己麻烦在头上了。我让我的人尽量在标准交货时间完工因此而加班，但我们发现如果要这样做的话，我们必须加快材料与工程的进度，如果加快工程的进度是可能的话！”
Peter bristles at Jim’s last comment. “Wait a minute. My engineers are working overtime as well. And we respond as best we can to all the demands. In fact, we respond to the point where we cannot work on new products. So new products miss their due dates. If we had better visibility, we would have time to get more engineers. Better yet, I could get Mark to authorize more engineers.”
彼得对吉姆的最后一句话感到恼火。“等一下。我的工程师也在加班。我们会尽最大努力满足所有的要求。事实上，我们对无法开发新产品的情况做出了回应。所以新产品错过了预定日期。如果我们有更好的可视性，我们就有时间找更多的工程师。更多的好处是，我可以让马克授权更多的工程师。”
“Let me finish, Peter,” Jim says. “We complete as much of the work as we can and then work on something else while waiting for materials or engineering or whatever else is missing to show up. But that’s not all. The sales organization is constantly changing priorities because we have made unrealistic promises to customers.
“让我说完，皮特，”吉姆说。“我们尽我们所能完成工作，在等待材料或工程的其他部件的供上时，然后做些其他的事情。但这不是全部。销售部门因为向客户提出不切实际的承诺，所以经常不断变化优先的事项。
We end up with lots of partially completed orders. Work in process stacks up, and shipment targets are missed.”
“我们做了很多部分完成的订单。流程中的工作积压，但还是错失出货目标。”
Now Sam Wente, the sales director, is bristling. “We wouldn’t be changing priorities if you had met the original promised ship dates.”
销售总监山姆非常生气“如果你能满足一开始就答应了的交期，我们不会改变优先顺序的。”
Janis Novak, the controller, chimes in. “What I see are revenue targets that are missed because of lack of shipments. Inventories go up because of the increase in work in process. Cash flow is at risk because we have to pay suppliers and employees, and both manufacturing and engineering costs go up. This all seems strange because the problem started with increased orders from customers. The orders are coming in and customer backlog is up, but shipments are just not going out.”
财务部门的老大珍妮丝：“我所看到的都是收入损失因为没有及时交付，存货增加因为工作流程时间增加。现金流有风险是因为我们要给供应商付款和发工资，制造和工程成本都在上升。这一切似乎很奇怪，因为问题起于客户增加的订单。订单来了，交付积压也攀升，但出货量并没有减少。”
Anita Cooper, the purchasing manager, interrupts. “Don’t forget increased cost of purchased materials because I am ordering inside our suppliers’ lead times and paying expediting fees and increased transportation costs.”
采购经理安妮塔打断说“别忘了购买材料增加的成本，因为我给我们的供应商下订单的是在交货时间内，支付了加急费用，导致运输成本增加。”
“Whoa!” Mark interrupts. “I think we get the point. Ross, how long were you going to let this go on?”
“哇哦！”马克打断。“我认为我们找到了答案。罗斯，你还要让这种情况继续多久？“
“Until Sam says he understands,” Ross says, smiling.
“直到山姆说他明白了”罗斯微笑着说。
By the frown on Sam’s face, he obviously has concerns. “I think I get the picture,” he says, “but in your example, it sounds like we’re blaming the problems on the forecast and the customers. The customers bought more than we anticipated. That is going to happen. We are not going to have 100 percent accurate forecasts.”
山姆皱着眉头，他显然有问题。“我想我懂了”他说，“但是在你的案例里，它听起来像只是在怪销售预测和客户。客户的下单超过预期，这是会发生的。我们不可能有百分之百准确预测啊。”
“Sam, of course that is going to happen,” Ross replies. “It’s going to happen the other way as well. Customers may not be buying what you thought they were going to buy. That is why it is necessary to have a regular and routine management process in place to deal with change. We could just as easily gone through a similar discussion starting with the supply side of the business. For example, what happens when manufacturing in one area doesn’t perform for whatever reason?”
“山姆，那当然是会发生的，”罗斯回答说。“它会以另外一种途径发生。客户可能不会购买你所希望他们要买的。这就是为什么有必要制定一个定期和日常流程来管理应对变化。我们可以很容易地通过业务供给侧这样一个例子来讨论清楚。比如说呢，不管什么原因，制造部门什么都不做，会发生什么？
Janis is quick to respond. “Similar things occur in the different areas of the company when there isn’t a process to identify and communicate the situation in order to keep everything synchronized, in balance and alignment.”
珍妮丝迅速响应。“如果没有过程的识别和沟通这种情况，类似的事情将会发生在公司的其他不同部门。为了保持所有事情都同步，平衡和一致。”
Ross smiles his approval. “I really like the word alignment. This is what we must do to operate most effectively. We must keep the elements of the organization in alignment to operate most effectively.”
罗斯笑对他的赞同 “我真的很喜欢这个词，一致。这就是我们必须做的确保最有效率的运转。”
Mark begins to play the role of facilitator. “Ross, I think this has been helpful, but in the interest of time perhaps you can talk about the next steps.” “Sure,” Ross says. “It should come as no surprise that Nolan and I found that although you are doing many things well, your integrated planning and control process is broken.”
马克开始发挥促进作用。“罗斯，我认为这是有帮助的， 但由于时间关系也许可以谈谈你的下一个”“当然，”罗斯说。“我和诺兰发现，虽然你们做了很多的事情，你的集成计划与控制流程还是破坏了。”
Ross relates Mark’s concern that any corrective actions taken need to deliver results very quickly. “It is our recommendation that you implement a formalized sales and operations planning process as quickly as is practical,” he says. “You need more than sales and operations planning to truly achieve the benchmarks in the checklist criteria. However, you can get benefits from sales and operations planning quickly.”
罗斯指出马克担心的，任何纠正措施都需要尽快带来成果。“这是我们的建议，一旦可行的情况下，你需要尽快执行一个正式的销售与运作规划过程”他说。“你需要的不仅仅让你的销售和运营计划真正达到基准。但你可以很快从销售和运营计划获得收益。”
“What about the other things we need to do?” Susan Callahan, the planning manager, asks. “Are you recommending that we also do them? And if so, when?” “We are recommending that you do a number of other things,” Ross replies. He cites the need to improve the fundamental planning data, such as inventory records. Numerous improvements are also needed in the detailed planning and control processes.
“我们还需要做其他的事情吗？”计划经理苏珊问道。“你是建议我们也做吗？如果是的话，什么时候？”“我们建议你做一些其他的事情，”罗斯回答说。他引用了需要改进的基本规划数据，如库存记录。还有许多在规划和控制流程中细节的改进。
“At this point, we haven’t recommended specific timing for those improvements,” Ross says. “One of the things we have observed is that the additional areas where improvement is needed will surface if you do sales and operations planning well, and the process will help to prioritize which improvements should be worked on first.”
“在这一点上，我们并不推荐那些改进的具体时间，” 罗斯说。“我们已经观察到的事情是：如果你把销售和运营的表面规划好，会有很多连带的提高，并且这个流程将有助于确定优先顺序的改进。”
Mark interrupts Ross to assert his leadership. He stands up and addresses his team. “Ross has provided me with his recommendations for what needs to be done to achieve what he calls a Class A level of performance. I have decided to focus first on sales and operations planning. This will include demand planning, rough-cut capacity planning, and connection to master scheduling. One of the interesting things Ross pointed out to me is that the word ‘focus’ can best be described as deciding what we are not going to do. We are going to focus on sales and operations planning for now.
马克打断罗斯以显示他的威信。他站起来开始演说“罗斯给了我实现他所谓的A级水准的建议。我决定首先关注销售与运作规划。这将包括需求计划、粗略的产能计划以及与主计划的连通。一个有趣的事情是罗斯向我指出“聚焦”，即决定我们哪些东西我们不去做，我们将重点关注销售和运营规划。”
That means we are not going to do some other things. Susan, let’s get that working and then come back and ask the question again.”
这意味着我们不打算做别的事情。“苏珊，把工作捡起来，回去然后再这个问题一遍。”
Jim Simpson, the manufacturing director, lifts his copy of The Oliver Wight ABCD Checklist for Operational Excellence in the air. “I have been thumbing through these benchmarks. There are ratings of A, B, C, and D. How did we come out in the assessment?” he asks.
生产总监吉姆辛普森，举起副本《奥利弗怀特 卓越运营清单》。“我已经翻阅这些基准。有A，B，C和D的评级，那我们是什么评分？“他问。
“The results of the assessment showed you to be a Class D in sales and operations planning,” Ross replies. “But don’t be discouraged. When companies ask us to perform an assessment, we rarely find performance higher than a Class C. After all, that is why we were hired.”
“评估的结果表明贵司是一个D级别销售和运营规划的公司，”罗斯说。“但不要气馁。当公司要求我们来进行评估时，我们很少能找到比C级更高的等级。毕竟，这就是为什么我们被雇佣来的原因。”
Mark intervenes. “From my perspective, the D rating is good news,” he says. “If we were already Class A and still had our current problems, I would not know where to turn for improvement. Ross, tell us your recommendations for implementing sales and operations planning.”
马克插话“从我的角度来看，D评级是好消息，”他说。“如果我们已经是A等级了，却还存在当前的这些问题，我不知道都不知道去哪儿寻找改进。罗斯，告诉我们你的建议，怎样开始实施销售与运作规划。”
Ross explains that the most effective implementation is one that gets the process up and running quickly. Therefore, a lot of time will not be spent on planning the implementation.
罗斯解释说，最有效的实施是快速启动和运行。因此，很多时间就不会花费在计划怎样实施上面。
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供应计划 | 用每日看板做日常管理
重温供应链经典：一流的产品，不入流的供应链！（上）
重温供应链经典：一流的产品，不入流的供应链！（中）
重温供应链经典：一流的产品，不入流的供应链！（下）
关于供应链预测：你/我知道的都太少了（1）
关于供应链预测：你/我知道的都太少了（2）
关于供应链预测：你/我知道的都太少了（3）
维多利亚的秘密供应链（上）
维多利亚的秘密供应链（下）
