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Wallst-journal

The International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that worldwide public debt could be more dire than most think, highlighting skyrocketing fiscal deficits in the U.S. and China.

Global public debt will rise above $100 trillion by the end of 2024, the agency projected in its annual Fiscal Monitor report. By the end of the decade, the IMF forecasts global public debt will reach 100% of world GDP. 

The U.S. and China account for a significant share of rising public debt levels. If the two countries were excluded from calculations, the global public debt to GDP ratio would fall around 20%, the IMF said. 

The U.S. Treasury Department announced earlier in October that the nation’s budget deficit has risen to $1.833 trillion, the highest level outside of the pandemic era. In recent years, the U.S. has approached several government shutdowns as government funding bills become more contentious between politicians amid growing concerns about the country’s fiscal health.

In the IMF’s China country report released in August, it underscored the local government’s outsized role in the country’s high fiscal deficit（财政赤字）. While it noted that local government spending fell in 2023, the effects were offset by lower revenues from extended tax relief.

Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty Images

In fiscal 2024, the U.S. budget deficit (预算赤字)soared to $1.8 trillion, an 8% increase from the previous year and the third highest on record, according to the Treasury Department. This deficit occurred despite record revenue of $4.9 trillion, insufficient to cover outlays (支出)of $6.75 trillion.

The total government debt rose to $35.7 trillion, with interest expenses reaching an unprecedented $1.16 trillion, attributed to high interest rates from Federal Reserve hikes. This figure marks the first time interest costs surpassed the trillion-dollar mark. The deficit represents over 6% of GDP, well above the historical average of 3.7%.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that deficits will continue to escalate (赤字将继续增加), potentially hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034, while debt could rise to 122% of GDP. The government recorded a surplus of $64.3 billion in September, mainly due to calendar effects affecting benefit payments (福利支付).

Picture Alliance | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

Russia’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 21%, the highest since 2003, in response to higher-than-expected inflation. Governor Elvira Nabiullina indicated that additional rate hikes could follow in December.

Annual inflation averaged 9.8% in September, and the bank forecasts it will be around 8.0-8.5% by the end of 2024, significantly higher than a July estimate of 6.5-7.0%. Longer-term, the bank expects inflation to fall to 4.5–5.0% in 2025 and to 4.0% by 2026. The contributing factors include high inflation expectations (高通胀预期), foreign trade challenges (对外贸易挑战), and economic imbalances (经济失衡).

Western sanctions and falling oil revenues are pressuring Russia’s economy, weakening Ruble’s currency value (卢布的汇率价值). Meanwhile, the IMF predicts Russia’s GDP will shrink from 3.6% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025 due to slowing private consumption and investment, as labor market constraints ease.

Miguel Pereira | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The euro zone economy grew 0.4% in the third quarter, flash figures published by the European Union’s statistics agency showed Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 0.2%. following the bloc’s 0.3% expansion in the second quarter.

Spain saw one of the highest growth rates, increasing 0.8% on the previous quarter, as Ireland — which generally records volatile figures due to the high proportion of international corporations stationed there — rose 2%. The euro zone’s biggest economy, Germany, recorded a surprise growth of 0.2% in the third quarter. That allowed Europe’s largest economy to avoid the recession（经济衰退） that had been forecast by some economists, as it struggles with a downturn（衰退期） in its key manufacturing sector.

The European Central Bank cut rates（降息） for the third time this year at its October meeting, after headline inflation came in at 1.7% in September, according to a final reading. The ECB cited persistent signs of weak activity in the euro area as a key factor in the central bank’s decision to enact an October cut.

Richard Baker | In Pictures | Getty Images

U.K. inflation fell sharply to 1.7% in September, marking the first time it dropped below the Bank of England’s 2% target since April 2021, according to the Office for National Statistics. This decrease, surpassing expectations of 1.9%, signals a potential rate cut by the Bank of England in November. Core inflation (核心通胀), excluding volatile items (波动性项目), decreased to 3.2% from 3.6%, while service sector price rises eased to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022.

Following the inflation report, market expectations for a rate cut increased significantly, with the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut jumping to 92%. The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar and euro, and government bond yields declined (政府债券收益率下降).

Experts noted that while the figures suggest a more moderate inflation environment, risks remain due to an expected rise in the energy price cap (能源价格上限) and the upcoming budget, which could influence future inflation trends.

Wallst-journal

France’s newly-installed government on Thursday presented a draft budget containing 60 billion euros ($65.6 billion) in tax hikes and spending cuts, as analysts warned the package may not be enough to stave off ratings downgrades for the economy.

The 2025 budget features a greater focus on tax-raising measures than some were expecting. Analysts also flagged “politically complicated” proposals such as a delay to an inflation adjustment for pensions, and cuts to local government, the civil service and the healthcare system.

Other key elements include temporary additional taxes on large shipping firms and corporations with revenue of more than a billion euros a year, impacting around 440 companies; an income tax surcharge on households with incomes over 500,000 euros; the reintroduction of a levy on electricity consumption; and an increase in taxes and charges on airline tickets and cars with high emissions.

One of the budget’s core aims is to reduce France’s projected 6.1% deficit for 2024 to 5% of gross domestic product next year — an effort to comply with European Union rules which state a member nation’s budget deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP.

The government set a new target of meeting this rule by 2029, an extension of its previous goal of 2027. It also warned the deficit could swell to 7% next year without action.

REUTERS/Blair Gable/File Photo 

Canada's immigration reduction targets announced this week will likely have an impact on the central bank's growth forecast（经济成长预期）, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Friday, but cautioned the bank was yet to analyse the numbers.

This week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau lowered the number of immigrants to be allowed into the country from next year.

The BoC（Bank of Canada）, in its monetary policy report released this week, projects that GDP next year would be 2.1% and 2.3% in 2026. The new forecasts were announced after the bank reduced its key overnight rate（隔夜利率） by 50 basis points.

Economists doubt the bank's growth estimates could be achieved as most of the growth was driven by increased demand from arriving immigrants.

REUTERS/Blair Gable/File Photo 

Argentina's economic activity（经济活动） grew 0.2% in August from July and fell less than expected from a year ago in the South American country's third straight month of year-on-year contraction, its official statistics agency said on Wednesday.

The grains-rich country's economic activity fell 3.8% year-on-year, less than an estimated 4.9% drop by analysts in a Reuters survey.

Tough austerity measures （严格的紧缩措施）by libertarian President Javier Milei, which have helped lower inflation and stabilize state finances（国家财政）, have also taken a toll on many sectors of the economy.

Construction had the steepest decline in August, contracting 17%, while the wholesale and retail sector and manufacturing fell 7.9% and 6.7% respectively.

Five sectors posted year-on-year growth in August, statistics agency INDEC said, notably fishing, which was up just over 17%, and mining, which grew 6%.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Nvidia dethroned Apple as the world's most valuable company on Friday following a record-setting rally in the stock（股份的上升）, powered by insatiable demand for its specialized artificial intelligence chips.

Nvidia's stock market value briefly touched $3.53 trillion, slightly above Apple's $3.52 trillion, LSEG data showed.

Nvidia ended the day up 0.8%, with a market value of $3.47 trillion, while Apple's shares rose 0.4%, valuing the iPhone maker at $3.52 trillion.

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