Citation: Ang G, Tan Y, Zhai Y, et al. Housing wealth, fertility and children's health in China: A regression discontinuity design[J]. Journal of Health Economics, 2024, 97: 102915.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102915
【背景】关于发展中国家住房财富对生育率影响的实证证据有限，尚未达成共识。2006年，“国六条”出台，细则规定，从2006年6月1日起，个人住房按揭贷款首付款比例不得低于30%，对购买自住住房且套型建筑面积90平方米以下的仍执行首付款比例20%的规定。
【本研究】 采用断点回归（RD）方法来比较住房略低于（或等于）和住房略高于政策阈值面积（90平方米）的家庭的生育结果；数据基于CFPS2018。结果发现：住房财富的增加会导致生育率的增加，同时使得家庭孩子更健康。主要机制为：时间分配更灵活与父母身心更健康。
【识别策略】
Abstract
This paper examines the influence of housing wealth on fertility outcomes through a regression discontinuity design based on a 2006 Chinese housing-market policy. Our analysis reveals that the positive impact of this policy on housing wealth significantly enhances the likelihood of fertility by 7.3 %. Our result implies that a 1 % increase in housing wealth can raise the fertility rate by 0.18 %. Furthermore, we observe that children born subsequent to the positive housing wealth shock exhibit improved health, not only at birth but also over the long term. Lastly, we present suggestive evidence suggesting that both parental pre-birth time allocation and parental health may help explain the documented positive effects of housing wealth on fertility rates.
