451 Research | 未来核能对人工智能发展的影响

未来核能对人工智能发展的影响

The role of nuclear in AI's future

Analysts - Dan Thompson, Mason Lester, Perkins Liu, Tony Lenoir

Publication date: Tuesday, December 10 2024

在过去的12个月里，微软、亚马逊和谷歌相继宣布在人工智能相关方面的支出已经超过了2970亿美元，这些支出包括GPU硬件、数据中心和战略投资。这些投资涌入北美、拉丁美洲、欧洲、亚太地区、中东和非洲。随着大型科技公司及其他公司继续这场人工智能的军备竞赛，电力供应已成为这些投资举措未来能否成功的一个关键变量，在美国尤其如此。显而易见，超大规模数据中心运营商热衷于探索所有可能的方案来为其数据中心供电，而核能就是其中之一的选项。 

In the last 12 months, Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Google have announced more than $297 billion in AI-related spending, including GPU hardware, datacenters and strategic investments. These investments are pouring into North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. As big tech companies, and others, continue this AI arms race, the availability of power has become a key variable in the future success of these initiatives, particularly in the US. It has become apparent that the hyperscalers are willing to explore any and all options to power their datacenters, and one of those is nuclear.

在美国，核能并非万能药，关键是时间问题。虽然在美国建造一个数据中心不到一年即可完成，但新的核反应堆通常需要十年或更长时间才能上线。即使是重启反应堆，也可能需要数年时间才能产生新的电能，比如Constellation Energy和Microsoft达成的重启宾夕法尼亚州三里岛核发电机的协议，标准普尔分析师预计其2029年才能启动。未来可能还会面临其他挑战。正如亚马逊在向联邦能源监管委员会申请额外能源配额时遭到拒绝所看到的那样，即使看似相当简单的交易也可能遇到障碍。尽管核能仍然是一种选择，因为公司正在寻找方法使其可行，但这种能源形式并非万能的——虽然它可能是21世纪30年代的一种解决方案，但对于2020年的可行性而言，时间已经不多了。

In the US, nuclear energy is not a panacea, the key issue being timing. Although a datacenter can be built in the US in less than a year, new nuclear reactors typically take a decade or more to bring online. Even when restarting reactors, it can be years before the facility is producing new electrons, such as the deal between Constellation Energy and Microsoft to restart a nuclear generator at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, which S&P analysts project a 2029 start date for. Other challenges may also be ahead. As Amazon saw with the pushback from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on an additional energy tranche, even deals that seem fairly straightforward can run into hurdles. Although nuclear remains an option, seeing as companies are finding ways to make it work, this form of power is not a silver bullet — while perhaps a solution for the 2030s, time is running out on 2020 viability.

2024年3月，Amazon以6.5亿美元从Talen Energy Corp（Talen Energy Corp）的一家子公司购买了一个数据中心园区的雏形。该园区占地1200英亩，有一座约28.7万平方英尺的单一数据中心外壳建筑。据联合公告称，Susquehanna核电站紧邻该园区，可向其提供高达960兆瓦的自用电。

In March 2024, Amazon Web Services bought the beginnings of a datacenter campus for $650 million from an affiliate of Talen Energy Corp. (Cumulus Growth Holdings). The site consists of 1,200 acres and a single datacenter shell building that is roughly 287,000 gross square feet. The Susquehanna nuclear facility sits directly next to it, and can supply as much as 960 MW of behind the-meter power to the site, according to joint announcements.

该交易最初承诺提供300兆瓦的电力，随着Amazon建设园区的其余部分，未来几年还将提供额外的120兆瓦的电力。2024年，数据中心和自用电力交易被广泛讨论，但Amazon/Talen的交易是第一个涉及核电站和超大规模数据中心园区的交易。

The deal was structured with an initial power commitment of 300 MW, with additional 120-MW tranches to be delivered over the next several years as Amazon builds out the rest of the campus. Datacenters and behind-the-meter power deals were talked about a lot 2024, but the Amazon/Talen deal was the first to involve a nuclear facility and a hyperscale datacenter campus.

Microsoft 在9月也跟进了一项类似的首创交易，它与Constellation Energy签署了一份合同，重启该公司位于宾夕法尼亚州三里岛核电站的一台退役核发电机。Constellation Energy的1号机组发电机因经济原因于2019年退役，据报道重启将耗资约16亿美元，但该公司预计它将在2027年底向电网供电。根据协议条款，Microsoft将在20年里以每兆瓦时110 - 150美元的估计价格从该设施购买能源。 

Microsoft followed suit in September with another first-of-its-kind deal, when it signed a contract with Constellation Energy to restart a retired nuclear generator at the company's Three Mile Island nuclear facility in Pennsylvania. Constellation's Unit 1 generator was retired back in 2019 due to economic reasons and will reportedly cost about $1.6 billion to restart, but the company expects it to be delivering power to the grid by late 2027. Under the terms of the deal, Microsoft will purchase energy from the facility for 20 years at an estimated rate of $110-$150 per megawatt hour.

这两项核能交易在规模上令人瞩目，但它们在结构上有根本的不同。Talen/Amazon的交易涉及在发电地点共建数据中心，并从电力公司购买现有的电力容量，而Constellation/Microsoft的交易则涉及重启一台退役的反应堆，通过虚拟电力购买协议（PPA）出售能源，这与公司从风能和太阳能项目购买可再生能源的方式非常相似。在Amazon的案例中，公司将使用核反应堆产生的实际电能。在Microsoft 的案例中，电力公司将向电网提供新的电能，这些电能可能会也可能不会被Microsoft 的数据中心消耗。 

While both of these nuclear deals are eye-opening in terms of their scope, they are fundamentally different in structure. The Talen/Amazon deal involves colocating datacenters at the generation site and buying existing electricity capacity from the utility, whereas the Constellation/Microsoft deal involves restarting a decommissioned reactor to sell the energy through a virtual power purchase agreement (PPA), in much the same way that companies buy renewable energy from wind and solar projects. In Amazon's case, the company will be using the actual electrons generated by the nuclear reactor. In Microsoft's case, the utility will be supplying the new electrons to the grid, which may or may not be consumed by Microsoft's datacenters.

此外，还有一些关于为科技巨头建造新的小型反应堆的公告。Google表示将与Kairos Power合作，将核能引入其能源组合。Kairos Power将开发、建造和运营一系列先进反应堆，并根据电力购买协议将电力出售给Google，为数据中心提供电力。首次部署计划于2030年进行，后续部署将持续到2035年，总发电量为500兆瓦。 

In addition, there have been some announcements about building new small reactors for the tech giants. Google said it will partner with Kairos Power to bring nuclear power to its energy fleet. Kairos Power will develop, construct and operate a series of advanced reactors, and sell the power to Google under PPAs to provide electricity to datacenters. The first deployment is planned for 2030, and subsequent deployments are set through 2035 for a total of 500 MW.

由比尔·盖茨资助的Terra Power已在怀俄明州开始其钠冷快堆示范项目的场地准备工作，同时美国核管理委员会正在审查其建设许可证。该项目有一个345兆瓦的钠冷快堆和一个基于熔盐的储能系统，如果需要，可将输出功率提高到500兆瓦。 

Bill Gates-funded Terra Power has started the site preparation of its Natrium reactor demonstration project in Wyoming as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reviews its construction permit. The project features a 345-MW, sodium-cooled fast reactor with a molten, salt-based energy storage system, which can push the output power to 500 MW if needed.

另外，Amazon作为C - 1轮融资向初创公司X-Energy Reactor公司投资了约5亿美元。两家公司计划到2039年在美国上线超过5吉瓦的新电力项目，包括在华盛顿中部与地区电力公司能源西北公司合作的一个初始的四单元320兆瓦项目，并可选择将容量增加到12单元和960兆瓦。这些项目以及其他各种首创的核能项目的成功，将极大地影响21世纪30年代及以后对核能的兴趣和建设。 

Separately, Amazon invested about $500 million as series C-1 financing in the startup X-Energy Reactor Company. The two companies are planning to bring more than 5 GW of new power projects online across the US by 2039, including an initial four-unit 320-MW project with regional utility Energy Northwest in central Washington, with the option to increase the capacity to 12 units and 960 MW. The success of these projects, along with various other first-of-a-kind nuclear projects, will greatly affect nuclear interest and buildout during the 2030s and beyond.

所有这些活动促使我们思考在美国还有哪些地方可能达成核能交易。“升级”现有核反应堆可能被证明是增加核能发电量的最快方式。升级是指用更现代的技术对现有核设施进行升级，使现有设施能够安全地生产更多能源。由于投资税收抵免的存在，人们对此的兴趣日益增加。自2022年《通货膨胀削减法案》通过以来，已经宣布了超过500兆瓦的新升级项目，并计划在21世纪20年代末完成。

All this activity leads us to examine the question of where else nuclear deals might be possible in the US. "Uprating" existing nuclear reactors may prove to be the quickest way of increasing nuclear generation. Uprating is the process of upgrading existing nuclear facilities with more modern technology so the existing facility can safely produce more energy. Interest is growing due to the availability of investment tax credits. Since the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, over 500 MW of new uprates have been announced and are scheduled for the late 2020s.

我们估计，通过升级，美国现有的核反应堆舰队可额外生产约5吉瓦的能源，容量增加4%。然而，这些增量将零星分布在美国各地，每个反应堆可提供50 - 200兆瓦。虽然这些收益不是非常显著，但与重启退役反应堆或建设新的反应堆技术相比，它们可能是一个风险较低的选择。 

We estimate that about 5 GW of additional energy could be produced by the nation's fleet of existing reactors through uprating, a 4% increase in capacity. This would, however, be piecemeal across the US, with 50-200 MW available per reactor. Although these gains are not very significant, they could prove to be a less risky option compared with the restart of retired reactors or the buildout of new reactor technologies.

另一种可行的方法是重启近年来退役的反应堆。帕利塞兹反应堆预计将在2025年成为第一个重启的反应堆，它于2022年退役；三里岛1号机组预计将通过Constellation/Microsoft的交易在2027年重启。我们估计爱荷华州帕洛的615兆瓦的杜安·阿诺德反应堆是唯一可能重启的其他反应堆。该设施在冷却塔遭受重大风暴破坏后于2020年关闭。然而，设施所有者NextEra能源公司已公开表示有兴趣重启该反应堆。由于其他大约十几个退役反应堆正在进行退役工作，其他反应堆的重启将极其困难。 

Another way forward is to restart reactors that were retired in recent years. Palisades is expected to be the first reactor in 2025, after retiring in 2022; Three Mile Island Unit 1 is anticipated to restart in 2027 via the Constellation/Microsoft deal. We estimate that the 615-MW Duane Arnold reactor in Palo, Iowa, is the only other reactor that could be restarted. The facility was shut down in 2020 following significant storm damage to the cooling towers. However, facility owner NextEra Energy has publicly expressed interest in restarting the reactor. Other reactor restarts would prove extremely difficult due to decommissioning efforts at the roughly dozen other retired reactors.

另一个选择是继续南卡罗来纳州詹金斯维尔的维吉尔·C·萨默发电站2号和3号机组的建设。该项目由于一些问题在2017年被放弃，法律纠纷仍在继续。即便如此，2017年10月，南卡罗来纳州参议院的一个委员会讨论了该项目继续进行的可能性。1号反应堆设计净输出功率为966兆瓦，2号和3号机组设计净输出功率为1.1吉瓦。据估计，该项目在被放弃时已完成60% - 70%。 

Another option is picking up the construction of units 2 and 3 at the Virgil C Summer generation plant in Jenkinsville, South Carolina. That project was abandoned in 2017 due to a number of issues, and the legal fallout is still ongoing. Even so, in October 2024, a South Carolina Senate committee discussed the possibility of the project continuing. The unit 1 reactor was designed to produce a net output of 966 MW, and units 2 and 3 were designed to produce a net output of 1.1 GW. It is estimated that the project was 60%-70% complete when it was abandoned.

比这些选择更遥远的是那些已经获得许可证但从未开始建设的项目。以下是一些已知的已批准但未推进的项目清单，主要是由于21世纪初市场条件不佳，当时电力需求平稳，市场产能过剩，天然气价格下跌。然而，开发和建设一个新的大型常规反应堆至少需要15年。

Further afield than these options would be picking up projects where licenses were obtained but construction never began. Below is a list of known approved projects that never went forward, primarily due to poor market conditions in the 2000s, when electricity demand was flat, markets were oversupplied with capacity, and natural gas prices were falling. However, developing and constructing a new large conventional reactor would take at least 15 years.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence 451 Research. © 2023 S&P Global

451 Research 估计，到2028年，美国前10大数据中心市场将产生26.7吉瓦的数据中心电力需求。与此同时，科技巨头们宣布的几乎所有的核电项目要到2028年才能投入使用，总容量为3.3吉瓦，大约占数据中心所需电力的10%。

451 Research estimates that the top 10 datacenter markets in the US will see 26.7 GW of datacenter power demand in 2028. In the meantime, almost all the nuclear power projects announced by the tech giants will not be available until 2028, for a total of 3.3 GW, accounting for roughly 10% of the power required for datacenters.

该行业预计核能在支持人工智能繁荣带来的不断增长的能源需求方面将发挥更重要的作用，但现实情况是，数据中心的能源供应可能是多元混合的。与数据中心公司签订的无碳发电和天然气开发合同在过去两年激增，可再生能源从2022年的19.5吉瓦增加到2026年的37.6吉瓦，天然气在同一时期从5.3吉瓦增加到27.6吉瓦。无论如何就目前而言，天然气正在弥合与长期可持续解决方案的差距。 

The industry expects nuclear power to play a more significant role in supporting the rising energy demand driven by the AI boom, but the reality is that the energy supply for datacenters will likely be a mix. Carbon-free generation and natural gas development contracted to datacenter companies have surged in the past two years, with renewable energy rising from 19.5 GW in 2022 to 37.6 GW in 2024, and natural gas jumping from 5.3 GW to 27.6 GW in the same period. For now anyway, natural gas is bridging the gap to a longer-term, sustainable solution.

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