国际宏观热点Global Macro Weekly Spot  2024.07. 11

    7月7日，法国国民议会选举举行第二轮投票。当地时间20时，第二轮投票结束。左翼政党联盟“新人民阵线”获多数席位。根据最新的出口民调显示，极右翼政党国民联盟及盟友获得约115至150个席位，左翼政党联盟“新人民阵线”获得约175至205个席位，但未获得绝对多数席位。而执政党复兴党及其中间派联盟“在一起”获得约150至175个席位。在首轮投票中，极右翼国民联盟获得33%的选票；左翼政党联盟“新人民阵线”获得28.5%的选票；执政党复兴党及其中间派联盟“在一起”获得22%的选票。据悉，6月30日举行的首轮投票的投票率为69.7%，创下自1986年议会选举以来的历史新高。此次国民议会选举将投票选出国民议会577位议员，任期5年。首轮投票中，获得半数以上的候选人直接当选，未获得半数但超过本选区12.5%登记选民支持的候选人进入第二轮投票，其中得票最多者当选国民议会议员。一般来说，法国国民议会选举每五年举行一次，但在6月9日欧洲议会选举当晚，总统马克龙启动了宪法第12条解散了国民议会，从而提前举行议会选举。当地时间7日晚，法国总理阿塔尔称于当地时间8日早晨向总统马克龙提交辞呈，随后马克龙拒绝了总理辞呈，组阁可能推迟至奥运会后。

中诚信国际点评：

选举避免了极右翼掌握议会，中间派联盟失去第一大党团地位，左翼党团获得优势地位，但法国政治存在“右转”趋势，并导致法国议会陷入“三足鼎立”局面，或面临更大程度的分裂，作为法国总统的马克龙也将受到更大掣肘，为推行财政整顿措施带来更大挑战。法国议会中的绝对多数为289个席位，三大党团席位均未过半数，席位数排第一的左翼联盟也仅拿到约185个席位，距绝对多数相去甚远。法国政坛左右对立，难以像德国一样达成短期合作，而目前最有可能成为总理的是左翼激进分子梅朗雄，但任何党派选出的总理都很可能因其他党团启动“不信任动议”轻易推翻，使正在进行的改革陷入停滞，法国政治或将进入一个更加由议会主导的时期，严重削弱马克龙在其剩下三年任期内的权力。此外，当前法国债务持续攀高，2023年法国的一般政府债务占GDP的比重为110.6%，预计未来将进一步扩大。左翼联盟希望扭转七年来的亲商改革，提高最低工资，但为达到目标，法国每年将需要近950亿欧元（约合1020亿美元）的额外资金，是马克龙政府计划支出的六倍，是国民联盟提议支出的将近两倍；国民联盟支持大规模财政扩张，并取消对食品、汽油和电力等生活必需品征收的消费型增值税，这或将使政府收入减少约240亿欧元。左右翼期望推行的财政政策相互对立，但都将大幅增加公共支出，却没有明确的途径增加政府收入，无法弥补国家预算中不断扩大的缺口，法国的债务负担将飙升至比目前预期更高的水平。

On July 7, a second round of voting was held for the French National Assembly election. At 20:00 local time, the second round of voting ended. The left-wing political party alliance NFP won a majority of seats. According to the latest exit polls, the far-right party National Alliance and its allies won about 115 to 150 seats, and the left-wing political party alliance NFP won about 175 to 205 seats, but did not get an absolute majority of seats. The ruling Baath party RE and its centrist alliance, Ensemble, won between 150 and 175 seats. In the first round of voting, the extreme right-wing National Rally received 33% of the votes; the left-wing political party alliance NFP received 28.5% of the votes; the ruling Baath Party and its centrist alliance Ensemble received 22% of the votes. It is reported that the turnout for the first round of voting, held on June 30, was 69.7%, a record high since the 1986 parliamentary elections. The National Assembly election will vote for 577 members of the National Assembly for a five-year term. In the first round of voting, more than half of the candidates directly elected, not half but more than 12.5% of registered voters in this constituency support candidates into the second round of voting, which received the most votes elected members of the National Assembly. Generally speaking, the French National Assembly elections are held every five years, but on the night of the June 9 European Parliament elections, President Macron activated Article 12 of the Constitution to dissolve the National Assembly, thus holding early parliamentary elections. Local time on the evening of 7, French Prime Minister Attal said on the morning of 8 local time to President Macron to submit his resignation, and then Macron rejected the resignation of the Prime Minister, the formation of the cabinet may be postponed until after the Olympic Games.

CCXI Comment: 

The election avoided the extreme right-wing hold parliament, the centrist coalition lost the first big party group status, the left-wing party group gained advantageous position, but there is a "rightward" trend in French politics, and lead to the French parliament into a "three-legged" situation, or face a greater degree of division, the French president Macron will also be subject to greater constraints on the implementation of fiscal consolidation measures will bring greater challenges. The absolute majority in the French parliament is 289 seats, the three major parties are not more than half of the seats, the number of seats ranked first in the left-wing coalition also only got about 185 seats, far from the absolute majority. France's political arena of left-right confrontation, difficult to reach a short-term cooperation like Germany, and the most likely to become prime minister is the left-wing radical Melenchon, but any party elected prime minister is likely to be easily overthrown due to the other caucuses to start the "no-confidence motion", so that the reforms underway to a standstill, France's politics may be more dominated by the parliamentary period, seriously weakening Mark's political system. French politics may enter a period more dominated by the parliament, seriously weakening Macron's power in the remaining three years of his term. In addition, France's debt continues to climb, with general government debt at 110.6% of GDP in 2023, and is expected to expand further in the future. The Left Coalition wants to reverse seven years of pro-business reforms and raise the minimum wage, but to reach its goal, France would need nearly €95 billion ($102 billion) in additional funding annually, six times what Macron's government plans to spend and nearly twice what the National Coalition proposes to spend; the National Coalition supports large-scale fiscal expansion and the elimination of consumption-based value-added tax on necessities such as food and electricity, which may reduce government revenues by about 24 billion euros. The left and right wings expect to pursue opposing fiscal policies, but both will dramatically increase public spending without a clear way to increase government revenues to fill the widening gap in the national budget, and France's debt burden will soar to a higher level than currently expected.

    7月8日，日本厚生劳动省公布的5月每月劳动统计调查（初值、员工5人以上单位）显示，考虑到物价变动因素的人均实际工资较上年同期减少1.4%，已连续26个月呈现同比下滑态势，继3月和4月之后再次刷新最长纪录。一方面，相当于名义工资的现金工资总额增加1.9%至297,151日元（约合人民币1.3万元），连续29个月增加。但同时另一方面，用于计算统计数据的消费者物价指数上升3.3%，扣减后的实际工资仍为负增长。厚劳省相关人士表示：“预计由于加薪效果，现金工资总额今后也将增多，但如果物价上涨势头不歇，实际工资就很难转为正增长。”

中诚信国际点评：

5月人均实际工资同比减幅的再度扩大，致使个人消费反弹预期减弱。内需疲弱及日元持续贬值致使日本央行推进货币政策正常化面临挑战，疲弱的经济数据强化2024年日本经济的收缩预期。2024年4月日本人均实际工资同比下降0.7%，较3月同比降幅2.5%明显收窄，令夏季实际工资转增预期加强。但最新公布的5月数据显示，日本人均实际工资同比减幅再度扩大。而由于当前日元仍处于贬值趋势，通胀压力正进一步加大，整体或令“工资-物价”形成良性循环的时点再度推迟。截至今年3月末，日本家庭金融资产同比增长7.1%达2,199万亿日元，其中一半以上的家庭金融资产以储蓄形态存在，同时保险、养老金和标准化保障在日本家庭金融资产中的占比位居第二。这一背景意味着，日本家庭为未来生活设定的安全保障较为稳定与牢靠，若未来居民收入能够实现递增，则可令工资的增量更多地转移至消费方面。然而由于当前实际工资仍未转增，经济仍缺乏持续前行的内在动能。由于美日利差较大、且日本货币政策正常化进程不及预期，今年以来日银所采取的外汇干预措施未能有效遏制日元贬值趋势。日元的加速贬值加剧了日银提速推进货币政策正常化的压力，但同时日银加息之路料将复杂化。在内生经济增长动能不足的情况下，贸然加息或影响经济增长的可持续性，但日元汇率大幅震荡对日本经济的负面影响亦不可忽视。

On July 8th, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released a monthly labor statistics survey for May, which showed that the per capita real wage, taking into account price fluctuations, decreased by 1.4% compared to the same period last year. It has been in a year-on-year decline for 26 consecutive months and has once again broken the record for the longest period since March and April. On the one hand, the total cash salary equivalent to nominal salary increased by 1.9% to 297151 yen (approximately RMB 13000), an increase for 29 consecutive months. On the other hand, the consumer price index used to calculate statistical data has increased by 3.3%, and the actual wage after deduction is still negative. A person from the Ministry of Labor and Welfare said, "It is expected that due to the effect of salary increases, the total cash salary will also increase in the future. However, if the trend of price increases continues, it will be difficult for actual wages to turn into positive growth."

CCXI Comment：

The further expansion of the year-on-year decrease in per capita real wages in May has weakened expectations for a rebound in personal consumption. The weak domestic demand and the continuous depreciation of the Japanese yen pose challenges for the Bank of Japan to promote the normalization of monetary policy, and weak economic data strengthens the expectation of contraction in the Japanese economy in 2024. In April 2024, the per capita real wage in Japan decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, which is significantly narrower than the 2.5% year-on-year decrease in March, strengthening the expectation of a summer increase in real wages. But the latest data released in May shows that the year-on-year decline in per capita real wages in Japan has once again widened. Due to the current depreciation trend of the Japanese yen, inflationary pressure is further increasing, which may further delay the timing of the formation of a virtuous cycle between wages and prices as a whole. As of the end of March this year, the financial assets of Japanese households increased by 7.1% year-on-year, reaching 2199 trillion yen. More than half of these household financial assets exist in the form of savings, while insurance, pensions, and standardized protection rank second in the proportion of Japanese household financial assets. This background means that the security guarantees set by Japanese families for their future lives are relatively stable and reliable. If the income of future residents can increase, it can transfer more of the increase in wages to consumption. However, due to the fact that actual wages have not yet increased, the economy still lacks the inherent driving force for sustained growth. Due to the large interest rate spread between the United States and Japan, and the slower than expected normalization of Japan's monetary policy, the foreign exchange intervention measures taken by Bank of Japan since the beginning of this year have failed to effectively curb the trend of yen depreciation. The accelerated depreciation of the Japanese yen has intensified the pressure on Bank of Japan to accelerate the normalization of monetary policy, but at the same time, the path for Bank of Japan to raise interest rates is expected to become more complex. In the absence of sufficient endogenous economic growth momentum, rashly raising interest rates may affect the sustainability of economic growth, but the negative impact of the significant fluctuation of the Japanese yen exchange rate on the Japanese economy cannot be ignored.