2024年，中国的水果市场走到了一个重要的分岔口。一方面，砂糖桔、沃柑、红心猕猴桃、突尼斯软籽石榴、阳光玫瑰葡萄、秋月梨等大宗水果在过去几年经过快速发展，供给量已远远超出市场需求，产能过剩问题愈发严重。另一方面，小众水果——无花果，却在这个竞争激烈的市场中悄然崭露头角，显示出独特的市场优势。
市场现状：大宗水果的“甜蜜负担”
走进南方某个水果批发市场，空气中充斥着浓郁的水果香味，摊主们忙着整理货物。然而，曾经备受追捧的突尼斯软籽石榴、阳光玫瑰葡萄等水果，如今却无人问津，摊位上堆积如山的水果成了难卖的库存。“这几年种植面积猛增，价格跌得太厉害了，销量根本跟不上，种出来的卖不出去。”一位水果批发商无奈地说。
回顾这些大宗水果的兴起，砂糖桔和阳光玫瑰葡萄曾是果农与投资者的“摇钱树”。在需求旺盛、供给有限的黄金期，这些水果带来了丰厚的利润，吸引了大量资本和农户涌入。然而，随着种植面积的急剧扩张，产能快速提升，市场开始饱和，价格持续下跌。曾经售价高达数十元一斤的阳光玫瑰葡萄，如今在批发市场已变得无人问津。
疫情影响下，水果的出口受阻，内需市场过度饱和，大宗水果价格大幅下跌。高投入和高产出的矛盾使得许多果农面临亏损风险。“果农投入了大量成本，特别是新品种的嫁接、管理和采摘费用都很高，但市场已经饱和，价格却不断下跌。”一位业内人士如是说。
这种现象背后，反映了市场高度同质化和产业周期的不可避免。水果市场竞争愈加激烈，大宗水果价格战打得异常惨烈，原本有利可图的品种如今变得低利润甚至无利润可言。“大家都在种同样的水果，供货商越来越多，消费者的热情却在不断消退。”大宗水果的市场疲软在近年表现尤为明显。
小众水果的崛起：无花果的“风景独好”
与大宗水果的“甜蜜负担”形成鲜明对比的是无花果的崛起。尽管无花果的种植面积远小于其他水果，但其市场需求却在稳步增长，成为一种独特的小众水果。近年来，随着消费者对健康食品的需求不断增加，无花果逐渐走入大众视野。
无花果并非新兴品种，但其在中国的种植和消费仍未大规模普及。相较于曾高调进入市场的阳光玫瑰葡萄，无花果的发展更加低调且缓慢。业内普遍认为，中国的无花果种植面积虽一度达到60万亩，但实际可产出的面积不到三分之一，具有产能的果园更为稀少。
无花果的市场需求为何在大宗水果萧条的背景下依然保持上升？这主要归功于几个重要因素：
1. 健康理念带动消费需求
无花果以其丰富的营养价值和独特的健康功效，逐渐受到消费者青睐。随着人们健康意识的提升，含有高纤维、低脂肪和抗氧化等属性的无花果成为都市白领和注重健康生活方式人群的“新宠”。
无花果不仅可以作为鲜果食用，还广泛应用于食品加工行业，制作无花果干、无花果酱和果酒等多种衍生产品。大健康产业的兴起，也为无花果带来了更多的市场空间。它独特的口感与丰富的营养，使得无花果在高端市场中脱颖而出，成为消费者的心头好。
在南方某连锁水果超市里，价格较高的无花果被陈列在显眼位置，尽管价格不菲，但依然吸引了大量顾客购买。“无花果营养好，味道特别，虽然价格贵一些，但值得购买。”一位正在挑选无花果的顾客如是说。
2. 小众市场的高效供应链
无花果虽然种植面积较小，但其市场定位更加高端，供应链相对灵活高效。虽然无花果易腐烂、运输难度大，但随着冷链物流的发展，其流通效率得到了显著提升，市场损耗得以控制。
一些业内人士认为，无花果的种植虽未大规模扩张，但这种“小而美”的模式恰恰符合当前水果市场的新趋势。相比于过度扩张导致的价格战，无花果的有限供给反而确保了高价位的维持，专注于健康食品市场的消费需求。这种精准的市场定位和高效供应链结合，创造了无花果独特的竞争优势。
3. 政策变化推动种植调整
尽管无花果在市场上表现良好，但其种植产业也面临挑战。随着耕地红线政策的收紧，以及精准扶贫和乡村振兴背景下的土地调整，一些无花果种植园因政策原因被迫退出，重新进行主粮种植。此外，部分无花果园由于管理不善、果树退化等原因，已被弃园。
不过，专家普遍认为，尽管无花果的种植面积有所收缩，但未来的产业前景依然广阔。消费者对优质无花果的需求将继续增长，推动无花果产业的健康化和小众化发展。
无花果的未来：小众化与高端化
展望未来，无花果的产业发展将更加聚焦于小众市场和健康食品的高端市场。种植技术的提升和供应链的完善将进一步改善无花果的市场供给，确保其品质和货架期。随着市场需求的逐步释放，无花果或将成为健康食品市场的重要组成部分。
虽然无花果无法像阳光玫瑰葡萄等大宗水果那样迅速占领市场，但其稳健的发展步伐和独特的市场定位，预示着它将在未来的水果市场中继续风景独好。
在大宗水果行情疲软的今天，无花果为果农和投资者提供了一条新的出路。在健康消费观念日益普及的背景下，消费者对无花果的需求将为这一小众水果带来更多机遇和希望。
Niche Fig Market Thrives Amidst Sluggish Demand for Major Fruits
In 2024, China's fruit market is at a crossroads. On one side, major fruit varieties such as sugar oranges, Wokan mandarins, red kiwifruit, Tunisian soft-seed pomegranates, Shine Muscat grapes, and Qiuyue pears have seen rapid growth over the years, resulting in an oversupply and increasing issues of overproduction. On the other hand, niche fruits, especially figs, are quietly emerging as a bright spot in the market.
Walking through a fruit wholesale market in the southern part of the country, the air is filled with the sweet fragrance of fruits. Stall owners busily arrange various types of fruit, but surprisingly, once-dominant varieties like Tunisian soft-seed pomegranates and Shine Muscat grapes are now left unsold, piling up as unsellable inventory. A wholesale business owner, who has been in the fruit trade for years, sighed, "In recent years, planting areas have expanded too rapidly, prices have plummeted, and the supply exceeds demand. What’s grown can’t be sold."
The "Sweet Burden" of Major Fruits
Looking back at the rise of these major fruit varieties, sugar oranges and Shine Muscat grapes were once the "money trees" for farmers and investors. During their peak demand, when the market was undersupplied, these fruits offered high profits, attracting substantial capital and farmers to enter the market. However, with the rapid expansion of planting areas, production surged, and the market became overwhelmed.
The situation worsened during the pandemic, as export channels were disrupted, domestic demand became saturated, and prices kept falling. Shine Muscat grapes, once a highly sought-after fruit commanding prices of dozens of yuan per kilo, are now neglected in wholesale markets. "Farmers have invested a lot of money, especially in new varieties, grafting, management, and harvesting, but the market is already saturated, and prices have dropped considerably," analyzed an industry expert who has been involved in fruit farming for many years.
This issue stems not only from supply exceeding demand but also from the highly homogeneous nature of the market and the inevitable product cycle. The fruit market is becoming increasingly competitive, and price wars have dragged once-profitable fruit varieties into low-profit traps. "Everyone is growing the same fruit, and with more suppliers, consumers are no longer as enthusiastic about these fruits." This phenomenon has become particularly evident in recent years.
Figs: The Rise of a Niche Fruit
In stark contrast to the "sweet burden" of major fruits is the emergence of figs. Although fig cultivation still remains small compared to other fruits, its market demand is steadily increasing, positioning it as a unique niche fruit.
Figs are not a new fruit, but their cultivation and consumption in China have not yet reached mass scale. Unlike Shine Muscat grapes, which made a splash in the public eye, figs have developed more slowly and discreetly. Industry experts widely acknowledge that while China’s fig planting area once reached 600,000 mu (approx. 40,000 hectares), the actual productive area is less than one-third of that, with even fewer orchards producing at full capacity.
Why, then, is fig thriving in an otherwise sluggish fruit market? The answer lies in several key factors.
Health-Conscious Consumers Drive Demand
Figs are prized for their rich nutritional value and unique health benefits, making them a favorite among consumers. As people become more health-conscious, figs, which are high in fiber, low in fat, and packed with antioxidants, have become the go-to fruit for urban white-collar workers and those who value a healthy lifestyle.
Figs can be consumed fresh or processed into various products like dried figs, fig jam, fig wine, and more. Particularly within the context of the growing health and wellness industry, the distinctive flavor and nutritional profile of figs have made them a darling of the premium market.
At a chain fruit supermarket in the south, the high-priced figs are prominently displayed. Despite their cost, they still attract a large number of buyers. "Figs are nutritious and have a unique taste. Even though they are more expensive, I’m willing to pay for them," said one customer while selecting figs.
Efficient Supply Chains for Niche Markets
Unlike the inefficient supply chains of major fruits, fig production benefits from a more agile and efficient supply chain, largely due to its smaller planting area and higher-end market positioning. Although figs are highly perishable and difficult to transport, the development of cold-chain logistics has improved the efficiency of fig distribution and minimized market losses.
Some industry insiders note that fig cultivation may not be as large-scale as other fruits, but this "small yet refined" approach fits well with the current trends in the fruit market. Rather than over-expanding and triggering price wars, it is better to maintain limited supply and focus on the health food consumer market. This strategy of combining an efficient supply chain with targeted market positioning has given figs a unique competitive edge.
Policy Shifts and Adjustments in Cultivation
However, despite the promising market for figs, the industry also faces certain challenges. In recent years, with stricter land policies, particularly the protection of arable land and the emphasis on rural revitalization, some fig orchards have been forced to shut down and revert to grain production due to land adjustments and policy pressures. In regions that saw blind expansion of fig orchards in recent years, mismanagement and tree degradation, coupled with these policy changes, have resulted in abandoned orchards.
Experts believe that while planting areas have shrunk, the future of the fig industry remains promising. As consumer demand for health foods continues to rise, the demand for high-quality figs will likely keep growing.
The Future of Figs: Niche and Premium
Looking ahead, the development of the fig industry will focus more on niche markets and health-oriented consumption. On one hand, advancements in planting techniques and improvements in supply chain logistics will further enhance fig supply, ensuring quality and shelf-life. On the other hand, as consumer demand continues to grow, figs are poised to become a mainstay in the health food market.
While figs may not take over the market as quickly as major fruits like Shine Muscat grapes did, their steady growth and unique positioning suggest a bright future in the fruit industry.
In this era of sluggish demand for major fruits, figs undoubtedly provide a new opportunity for farmers and investors. With health-conscious consumption trends on the rise, consumer demand for figs will continue to offer opportunities and hope for this niche fruit.
