Paul Graham 是一位非常著名的计算机科学家、风险投资人、企业家以及作家。他最为人知的身份之一是 Y Combinator（YC）的创始人之一，这个机构是硅谷最成功、最有影响力的创业孵化器之一，帮助了许多初创公司发展壮大，比如 Airbnb、Dropbox、Stripe 等。另外，OpenAI公司的Sam Altman 曾经是 Y Combinator 的负责人之一
Paul Graham 在 2000 年代初期通过出售他创立的公司 Viaweb（后来成为 Yahoo Store）给雅虎而实现了财富积累。他是一位 Lisp 编程语言的专家，甚至撰写过几本关于 Lisp 的书籍。他还写了很多关于创业、投资和编程的文章，文章风格直接、透彻，并且非常受欢迎，尤其在科技创业者圈子里有很高的影响力。
Paul Graham 的文章常常关注如何创办公司、如何成为更好的程序员，以及如何思考问题。他提倡极简主义、快速行动，以及通过深度思考来寻找商业机会。他的博客文章在技术和创业圈中有很大的号召力，是很多创业者和开发者的精神粮食。
译文：
我通常不喜欢对科技做出预测，但有一个预测我相当有把握：再过几十年，能够写作的人会越来越少。
如果你是一名作家，你会发现一个奇怪的现象：有太多人觉得写作很难。医生知道有多少人对他们的痣感到担心；会装电脑的人知道有多少人搞不懂电脑；而作家则知道有多少人需要写作上的帮助。
许多人觉得写作困难的原因是，写作本身就是一项复杂的技能。要写好文章，必须要清晰思考，而清晰思考本来就是很难的事情。
但写作却贯穿于很多职业，职位越高，对写作的要求也就越多。
这种矛盾带来了巨大的压力：一方面是无处不在的写作要求，另一方面是写作本身的难度。这也是为什么一些著名的教授会选择抄袭。让我印象最深的是，这些抄袭的内容往往非常琐碎，通常是一些最普通的套话——任何一个稍微擅长写作的人都能轻松完成。这意味着，他们甚至连写作的基本水平都没达到。
直到最近，这种压力几乎没有什么好的出路。你可以像 JFK 那样请人代笔，或者像 MLK 那样抄袭，但如果你既不能买也不能偷到文章，你就只能自己写。因此，几乎所有被要求写作的人都必须学会如何写。
但现在情况变了。AI 打破了这种格局。写作的压力几乎都消失了。无论是上学还是上班，你都可以让 AI 替你完成写作。
于是，世界将分成两类人：会写作的和不会写作的。还是会有一些人能够写作，因为他们喜欢写作。但那些写得还算过得去的人将会消失。世界上将不再有好作家、普通作家和不会写作的人，只有好作家和不会写作的人。
这真的那么糟糕吗？当科技让某种技能变得过时时，这种技能的消失不也很正常吗？比如，现在已经很少有铁匠了，但这似乎也不是个问题。
是的，这确实很糟糕。原因在于，我之前提到过，写作其实就是一种思考的方式。事实上，有一种思考只能通过写作来实现。就像 Leslie Lamport 说的那样：“如果你在思考时没有写下来，那你只是以为自己在思考。” 因此，一个“会写作”和“不会写作”的世界，实际上就是一个“会思考”和“不会思考”的世界。你我都清楚，想要成为哪一类人。
这种情况并不是前所未有的。在工业化之前，大多数人的工作让他们变得强壮。现在，如果你想要强壮，就得去健身。所以，世界上仍然有强壮的人，但只有那些选择去锻炼的人。
写作也是一样。世界上仍然会有聪明的人，但也只有那些愿意选择聪明的人。
原文：
WRITES AND WRITE-NOTS
October 2024
I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.
One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.
The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.
Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.
Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.
Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:
If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking.
So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
