突发！特朗普在两个关键摇摆州形势逆转......
文化
2024-10-01 08:47
加拿大
据被评为最准确的民调机构的一项新调查，在距离总统选举不到六周之际，前总统唐纳德・特朗普在两个关键摇摆州正在缩小与副总统卡玛拉・哈里斯的差距。在密歇根州和威斯康星州，哈里斯原本领先但差距正在缩小，并且威斯康星州的民调历史上曾高估民主党支持率。同时介绍了各州的民调数据，包括 FiveThirtyEight 的综合民调数据。还提到全国范围内哈里斯领先特朗普，以及在其他摇摆州两人的支持率对比情况，强调总统选举由选举人票决定而非普选票。Former President Donald Trump is gaining on Vice President Kamala Harris in two key swing states, according to a new survey whose pollster is ranked the most accurate.根据一项由被评为最准确的民调机构所做的新调查，前总统唐纳德・特朗普正在两个关键的摇摆州拉近与副总统卡玛拉・哈里斯的差距。With less than six weeks until the presidential election, the candidates' ability to sway voters is getting down to the wire. Harris, the Democratic nominee, has done well in Michigan and Wisconsin, two states key to an electoral victory, however, the races are tightening.
距离总统选举还不到六周的时间，候选人影响选民的能力到了关键时刻。哈里斯作为民主党候选人，在密歇根州和威斯康星州这两个对选举胜利至关重要的州表现良好，然而，竞争正在变得激烈起来。According to the latest New York Times/Siena College polls, Harris has 48 percent of voter support in Michigan where Trump is slightly behind with 47 percent, which is well within the poll's margin of error.根据《纽约时报》/ 锡耶纳学院的最新民意调查，哈里斯在密歇根州拥有 48% 的选民支持率，特朗普以 47% 的支持率略微落后，这一差距完全在民意调查的误差范围之内。In Wisconsin, Harris is leading Trump by just 2 points (49 to 47 percent). However, Wisconsin polling has historically overstated support for Democrats.
在威斯康星州，哈里斯仅以 2 个百分点（49% 比 47%）领先特朗普。然而，威斯康星州的民意调查历史上曾高估了对民主党的支持率。The Times/Siena polls were conducted from September 21 to 26 and surveyed 688 likely voters in Michigan and 680 likely voters in Wisconsin. Each poll has a margin of error of about plus or minus 4 percentage points.
《纽约时报》/ 锡耶纳学院的民意调查于 9 月 21 日至 26 日进行，调查了密歇根州的 688 名可能选民和威斯康星州的 680 名可能选民。每项民意调查的误差幅度约为正负 4 个百分点。Newsweek has reached out to Harris and Trump's campaigns via email for comment on Saturday morning.《新闻周刊》已于周六上午通过电子邮件联系哈里斯和特朗普的竞选团队征求意见。Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks the Times/Siena polls as number one for its accuracy, ability to be unbiased and transparency. FiveThirtyEight currently has Harris leading Trump by 2.7 points (48.6 to 45.9 percent) in Michigan, according to its polling averages, which looks at how the nominees are doing in multiple polls.
民意调查汇总机构 FiveThirtyEight 因其准确性、公正性和透明度而将《纽约时报》/ 锡耶纳学院的民意调查评为第一名。根据 FiveThirtyEight 的综合民意调查平均数据（该数据考量候选人在多项民意调查中的表现），目前在密歇根州，哈里斯以 2.7 个百分点（48.6% 比 45.9%）领先特朗普。In Wisconsin, Harris is ahead of Trump by 2.1 points (48.8 to 46.7 percent), according to FiveThirtyEight's polling averages.根据 FiveThirtyEight 的综合民意调查平均数据，在威斯康星州，哈里斯以 2.1 个百分点（48.8% 比 46.7%）领先特朗普。How Are the Candidates Doing Nationally?On the national scale, Harris is again ahead of Trump, leading the former president 48.6 to 45.7 percent, a difference of 2.9 points.在全国范围内，哈里斯再次领先特朗普，以 48.6% 对 45.7% 的支持率领先这位前总统，领先幅度为 2.9 个百分点。While national polls are good to gauge what the overall American public thinks of each candidate and therefore what the popular vote might be, candidates don't win the presidency by popular vote. A candidate must win 270 or more electoral votes, which are spread out by state according to the number of representatives and senators it has, to become president in what is known as the Electoral College system.
虽然全国性的民意调查有助于衡量美国民众对每位候选人的总体看法，从而推测普选票的情况，但候选人不是靠普选票赢得总统职位的。在被称为选举人团制度的体系中，候选人必须赢得 270 张或更多的选举人票（选举人票根据各州的众议员和参议员人数在各州分配）才能成为总统。How Are the Candidates Doing in Other Swing States?Trump leads Harris in Georgia by 0.9 points (48.3 to 47.4 percent) and in North Carolina by 0.4 points (47.8 to 47.4 percent), according to FiveThirtyEight's polling averages. He is also ahead of the vice president in Arizona by 1.3 points (48 to 46.7 percent).
根据 FiveThirtyEight 的综合民意调查平均数据，特朗普在佐治亚州以 0.9 个百分点（48.3% 比 47.4%）领先哈里斯，在北卡罗来纳州以 0.4 个百分点（47.8% 比 47.4%）领先哈里斯。他在亚利桑那州也以 1.3 个百分点（48% 比 46.7%）领先这位副总统。Harris is ahead of Trump in Nevada by 1 point (47.8 to 46.8 percent) and Pennsylvania by 1.3 points (48.2 to 46.9 percent).
哈里斯在内华达州以 1 个百分点（47.8% 比 46.8%）领先特朗普，在宾夕法尼亚州以 1.3 个百分点（48.2% 比 46.9%）领先特朗普。
