最新！距大选5周，哈里斯和特朗普在各州民调中领先情况
文化
2024-10-07 10:23
加拿大
文章主要讲述了卡玛拉・哈里斯（Kamala Harris）在夏季取代拜登（Joe Biden）成为民主党总统候选人后民调数据的变化情况。2024 年总统竞选已接近尾声，多数选民已决定投票对象且 20 个州已开始提前投票。候选人要争取少数未决定选民并激励各自阵营投票。民主党夏季时因拜登表现面临糟糕民调，拜登退出后哈里斯成为提名人，她通过创纪录的筹款和辩论表现使竞选局势重回胶着。文中还基于 538 的民调汇总展示了截至 10 月 2 日哈里斯和特朗普在各州民调中的领先情况，包括摇摆州及各自在不同州的领先幅度，同时提到一些原本被视为稳赢的州以及目前竞争态势有变化的州。Vice President Kamala Harris' poll numbers rebounded after replacing President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket over the summer, though they haven't moved much since, with the most recent high - quality surveys still showing a tight race against former President Donald Trump with less than five weeks until Election Day.副总统卡玛拉・哈里斯（Kamala Harris）在夏季取代民主党竞选名单首位的乔・拜登（Joe Biden）之后，民调数字有所回升，不过此后变化不大，距离选举日不到五周时，最近的高质量调查仍然显示她与前总统唐纳德・特朗普（Donald Trump）的竞争十分激烈。The 2024 presidential campaign is shifting to into the home stretch as most voters have made up their mind about who they're voting for, and as early voting in 20 states is already underway. The candidates have limited time to win over the handful of undecided voters left, and now need to focus on motivating their respective bases to turnout.随着大多数选民已经决定投票对象，并且 20 个州已经开始提前投票，2024 年总统竞选已进入最后阶段。候选人争取剩下为数不多的未决定选民的时间有限，现在需要着重激励各自的阵营出来投票。Democrats faced dire poll numbers over the summer, when concerns about Biden's age and acuity exploded after his dismal debate performance in June. These numbers ultimately prompted Biden to withdraw from the race, leaving Harris as the nominee.民主党在夏季面临糟糕的民调数据，拜登 6 月在辩论中的糟糕表现引发了人们对他年龄和敏锐度的担忧。这些数据最终促使拜登退出竞选，哈里斯成为提名人。Record - breaking fundraising and a stronger debate performance against Trump helped Harris bring the race back to a toss - up, but the two candidates are still divided in the most critical battlegrounds ahead of November.创纪录的筹款数额以及在与特朗普的辩论中更出色的表现使哈里斯让竞选形势重新变得难分胜负，但在 11 月之前，两位候选人在最关键的战场上仍然存在分歧。The map below shows where Harris and Trump are leading in the most recent polls as of October 2, based on the polling aggregate from 538.下面的地图基于 538 的民调汇总，展示了截至 10 月 2 日哈里斯和特朗普在最近民调中的领先地区。Which States Do Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Lead in Polls?卡玛拉・哈里斯（Kamala Harris）和唐纳德・特朗普（Donald Trump）在哪些州的民调中领先？States shaded purple are the most critical battlegrounds, where both Harris and Trump have held minor leads in recent polls. Harris and Trump may have small leads in those states, but they are well within the margin for error, and forecasters view these states as pure tossups.被标为紫色的州是最关键的战场，在最近的民调中，哈里斯和特朗普在这些州都有小幅领先。哈里斯和特朗普在这些州可能只有微弱优势，但都在误差范围内，预测者认为这些州完全是胜负难料的。Harris has narrow leads in the Rust Belt swing states and Nevada, according to 538's polling aggregate. She leads Michigan by 1.8 points, Nevada by 1 point, Pennsylvania by 0.7 points and Wisconsin by 1.8 points.根据 538 的民调汇总，哈里斯在铁锈地带（Rust Belt）的摇摆州和内华达州（Nevada）有微弱优势。她在密歇根州（Michigan）领先 1.8 个百分点，在内华达州领先 1 个百分点，在宾夕法尼亚州（Pennsylvania）领先 0.7 个百分点，在威斯康星州（Wisconsin）领先 1.8 个百分点。Meanwhile, Trump is performing slightly better in the Sunbelt swing states. He leads Arizona by 1.4 points, Georgia by 1.2 points and North Carolina by 0.6 points, according to the aggregate.与此同时，根据汇总数据，特朗普在阳光地带（Sunbelt）的摇摆州表现略好。他在亚利桑那州（Arizona）领先 1.4 个百分点，在佐治亚州（Georgia）领先 1.2 个百分点，在北卡罗来纳州（North Carolina）领先 0.6 个百分点。States where either Democrats or Republicans are viewed as easy favorites are colored either a dull red or blue. Polls for Harris may not be available for those states, but they were won by their respective parties by double digits in 2020 and are not viewed as competitive.那些被认为民主党或共和党稳赢的州被标为暗红色或蓝色。这些州可能没有哈里斯的民调数据，但在 2020 年这些州各自所属的政党以两位数的优势获胜，所以不被视为有竞争力的州。States where either Harris or Trump has a single - digit lead are shaded a more vibrant red or blue.哈里斯或特朗普在其中有个位数领先优势的州被标为更鲜艳的红色或蓝色。For Republicans, this includes Florida and Texas, potentially competitive states where Democrats are hoping to overperform their 2020 showing. It also includes Ohio and Iowa, two states easily won by Trump four years ago, but where recent polls suggest his lead may have shrunk from the summer.对共和党来说，这包括佛罗里达州（Florida）和得克萨斯州（Texas），这些州有潜在的竞争，民主党希望在这些州的表现比 2020 年更好。还包括俄亥俄州（Ohio）和爱荷华州（Iowa），这两个州四年前特朗普轻松获胜，但最近的民调显示他自夏季以来的领先优势可能已经缩小。In Iowa, for instance, a Selzer & Co./The Des Moines Register poll conducted among 656 likely voters from September 8 to September 11 showed Trump only up four points over Harris (47 percent to 43 percent), compared to a June poll that showed him up 18 points over Biden.例如，在爱荷华州，塞尔泽公司（Selzer & Co.）与《得梅因纪事报》（The Des Moines Register）9 月 8 日至 11 日对 656 名可能的选民进行的民调显示，特朗普仅比哈里斯高出 4 个百分点（47% 对 43%），而 6 月的民调显示他比拜登高出 18 个百分点。
Meanwhile, four Democratic - leaning states have produced polls in the single digits in the past few weeks. This includes Minnesota, the home of Harris' running mate Governor Tim Walz. Polls show the race in Minnesota as closer than it was four years ago, and experts previously told Newsweek it may be winnable for Republicans.与此同时，在过去几周里，四个倾向民主党的州出现了个位数的民调结果。这包括哈里斯的竞选伙伴蒂姆・沃尔兹（Tim Walz）州长所在的明尼苏达州（Minnesota）。民调显示，明尼苏达州的竞选形势比四年前更为胶着，专家此前告诉《新闻周刊》（Newsweek），共和党可能有机会赢得该州。It also includes Virginia, where Republicans remain cautiously optimistic as early voting is underway. An Emerson College poll, conducted among 860 likely voters from September 22 to September 24, showed Harris up seven points (53 percent to 46 percent) in the commonwealth.还包括弗吉尼亚州（Virginia），随着提前投票的进行，共和党人在该州仍持谨慎乐观态度。艾默生学院（Emerson College）9 月 22 日至 24 日对 860 名可能的选民进行的民调显示，哈里斯在该州领先 7 个百分点（53% 对 46%）。New Hampshire and New Mexico, which have backed Democrats in every presidential race since 2008, have also seen recent single - digit margins, though Harris remains favored in both.自 2008 年以来，新罕布什尔州（New Hampshire）和新墨西哥州（New Mexico）在每次总统选举中都支持民主党，最近这两个州的民调差距也在个位数以内，不过哈里斯在这两个州仍然更受青睐。你认为这篇文章是否做到了事实性和公平性？根据下面方表格，对文章公平客观性评分，在评论区发表你的看法。参加美国大选线上投票 “哈里斯 vs 特朗普：谁将创造历史？” ，发表您独到的见解，来深入了解美国大选。
