Analysis of latest tungsten market from Chinatungsten Online
The 2024 Chinese tungsten market exhibited a "low-high-low" trend, with tungsten product prices generally rising steadily and the average increase in raw material prices reaching 12%-15%. Tight supply-side dynamics played a significant role in influencing the market, pushing tungsten concentrate prices to break historical highs in the second quarter with an intra-year increase of 28%. This resulted in a peak for tungsten product prices across the board.However, the demand-side challenges persisted, limiting improvement. While profits for upstream miners rose significantly, smelting and alloy production faced intensified competition and insufficient effective demand, leading to widening profit declines. Macroeconomic factors presented mixed influences. Geopolitical risks highlighted the strategic value of tungsten as a critical metal, but international trade conflicts posed severe challenges for tungsten product exports.Four Stages of Tungsten Price Trends in 20241.January to March: Mild Uptrend (Tungsten Prices Up by Over 3%)In January, economic stimulus measures from the government and financial institutions boosted market confidence. Pre-Chinese New Year tight supply from upstream suppliers lifted tungsten prices.February saw moderate price increases due to reduced production activity during the holiday and sellers' bullish sentiment. However, trading volume was subdued due to buyer hesitation.In March, the annual Two Sessions conference, the release of mining quotas, and law enforcement campaigns strengthened supply-side signals, keeping tungsten concentrate prices firm.2.April to May: Rapid Price Surge (Peak Increase of Tungsten Prices by Nearly 24%)April marked the start of a rally, driven by widening supply gaps in tungsten mining and speculative trading. Environmental inspections and the rainy season in southern China tightened supply chains, while geopolitical risks elevated the financial and safe-haven appeal of tungsten.In May, central environmental inspection teams entered major tungsten production areas, fueling market sentiment despite limited fundamental impact. Tungsten concentrate prices hit a record high of 157,000 CNY/metric ton before a cautious correction at the end of the month.3.June to July: Declining Trend (Tungsten Prices Down by About 15%)In June, the diminishing influence of environmental inspections and cooled speculation in commodity markets led to profit-taking and weakened supply-side support. Tungsten prices steadily declined.By July, sluggish demand and panic selling drove prices further down. However, a bottom was established later in the month due to low-cost support and opportunistic restocking by buyers.4.August to December: Volatile Uptrend (Tungsten Prices Up by Over 8%)August saw a tug-of-war between supply and demand. Upstream suppliers' reluctance to sell buoyed prices, but weak demand constrained market transactions and growth potential.In September, unmet expectations for robust demand during the "golden September" period exerted downward pressure. Late-month macroeconomic liquidity easing halted the decline.October and November witnessed cautious market sentiment. Geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S. presidential election, amplified global economic risks, keeping the tungsten market in a stalemate.In December, subdued demand weighed on prices. However, year-end settlement efforts to stabilize the market led to horizontal price movements.
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