全文英中对照翻译：Former President Donald Trump has erased Vice President Kamala Harris' narrow lead, leveling the extraordinarily tight presidential race, according to a national poll published on Saturday. 根据周六公布的一项全国民意调查，前总统唐纳德・特朗普已经抹去了副总统卡玛拉・哈里斯的微弱领先优势，使这场异常激烈的总统竞选趋于平衡。With 10 days until Election Day, the race between Trump and Harris rests on razor-thin margins, with the outcome largely depending on key battleground states. 距离选举日还有 10 天，特朗普和哈里斯之间的竞争处于极其微弱的差距，结果在很大程度上取决于关键的摇摆州。Most recent polls indicate growing support for Trump and a decline for the vice president, who had previously been consistently leading in national popular vote polls. Trump has pulled ahead of Harris in four recent major national polls for the first time since early August. 最近的大多数民意调查显示，对特朗普的支持在增加，而对副总统的支持在下降，此前哈里斯在全国普选民意调查中一直领先。自 8 月初以来，特朗普在最近的四次主要全国民意调查中首次领先于哈里斯。A new Emerson College Polling national survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted between October 23 and 24 finds Harris and Trump to be deadlocked at 49 percent. Meanwhile, 1 percent is undecided and another 1 percent plans to support a third-party candidate. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 10 月 23 日至 24 日，爱默生学院民意调查对 1000 名可能的选民进行的一项新的全国调查发现，哈里斯和特朗普以 49% 的支持率陷入僵局。与此同时，1% 的人尚未决定，另有 1% 的人计划支持第三方候选人。这项民意调查的误差幅度为正负 3 个百分点。"Male voters are breaking for Trump by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, a larger margin than in 2020, while women break for Harris by ten points, 54 percent to 44 percent, underperforming Biden's support in 2020," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. 爱默生学院民意调查执行主任斯宾塞・金博尔说：“男性选民以 55% 对 42%、13 个百分点的优势支持特朗普，这一差距比 2020 年更大，而女性选民以 54% 对 44%、10 个百分点的优势支持哈里斯，低于 2020 年拜登的支持率。”When respondents were asked who they expected to become president, regardless of their personal support or vote, majority said Trump—50.4 percent to Harris' 48.5 percent. 当被问及他们预计谁会成为总统时，无论他们个人的支持或投票如何，大多数人说是特朗普 ——50.4% 对哈里斯的 48.5%。Harris edges ahead of Trump in favorability, with an even split among respondents—50 percent view her favorably and 50 percent unfavorably. By comparison, 49 percent hold a favorable view of Trump, while 51 percent view him unfavorably. 在支持率方面，哈里斯略领先于特朗普，受访者意见平分秋色 ——50% 的人对她持正面看法，50% 的人持负面看法。相比之下，49% 的人对特朗普持正面看法，而 51% 的人持负面看法。The poll aligns with a trend of increasing support for Trump in the days leading up to the election. Emerson College Polling, which showed Harris with between a 1 to 4 percentage point lead over Trump as of August, now shows that lead has entirely disappeared. In the previous rendition of the poll, conducted from October 14 to 16, Harris had a slight 1 percent lead on Trump, 49 to 48 percent. The survey of 1,000 likely national voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 这项民意调查与选举前几天对特朗普的支持率不断上升的趋势一致。爱默生学院民意调查在 8 月份时显示哈里斯领先特朗普 1 到 4 个百分点，现在显示这种领先优势已经完全消失。在 10 月 14 日至 16 日进行的上一次民意调查中，哈里斯对特朗普的领先优势微弱，为 49% 对 48%。这项对 1000 名可能的全国选民的调查误差幅度为正负 3 个百分点。StevenCheung, Trump's campaign spokesperson, previously told Newsweek in an email about tightening polls, "[Former] President Trump is out working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala's destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community." 特朗普的竞选发言人史蒂文・张此前在一封关于民调收紧的电子邮件中告诉《新闻周刊》：“（前）总统特朗普正在努力超越卡玛拉・哈里斯，选民们知道，在卡玛拉破坏性的政策下，美国再也无法生存，这些政策包括飙升的通货膨胀、失控的边境以及肆虐每个社区的猖獗犯罪。”In a similar Emerson College/NewsNation national poll of 1,121 likely voters conducted just ahead of the 2020 presidential election, from October 25 and 26, 2020, former Vice President Joe Biden led Trump by 5 percentage points, 50 to 45 percent. 在 2020 年总统选举前夕，即 2020 年 10 月 25 日至 26 日，爱默生学院 / 新闻国家对 1121 名可能的选民进行的一项类似全国民意调查中，前副总统乔・拜登以 50% 对 45%、5 个百分点的优势领先特朗普。At the time, voters were split on who they expected to take the Oval Office, with Trump slightly edging ahead of Biden, 42 to 41 percent. Biden ultimately secured the presidency. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. 当时，选民在他们预计谁会入主椭圆形办公室的问题上意见不一，特朗普以 42% 对 41% 的微弱优势领先拜登。拜登最终获得了总统职位。这项民意调查的误差幅度为正负 2.8 个百分点。Other national polls show a comparable electoral scenario to Emerson College's latest poll. A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Friday paints a similar picture, with Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent support each. The poll was conducted among 2,516 registered voters over the phone between October 20 and October 23, and has a margin of error of 2.2 percent. 其他全国性民意调查显示出与爱默生学院最新民意调查类似的选举情景。周五公布的《纽约时报》/ 锡耶纳学院民意调查描绘了类似的画面，特朗普和哈里斯以 48% 的支持率陷入僵局。这项民意调查在 10 月 20 日至 10 月 23 日期间通过电话对 2516 名登记选民进行，误差幅度为 2.2%。The previous edition of the Times/Siena College poll, conducted among 3,385 registered voters between September 29 and October 6 with a 2.2 percent margin of error, showed Harris with a 2-percentage point lead over the former president. Harris was supported by 48 percent of voters while Trump was backed by 46 percent. 《纽约时报》/ 锡耶纳学院民意调查的上一版在 9 月 29 日至 10 月 6 日期间对 3385 名登记选民进行，误差幅度为 2.2%，显示哈里斯领先前总统 2 个百分点。48% 的选民支持哈里斯，而 46% 的选民支持特朗普。A recent Wall Street Journal poll of 1,500 registered voters found that the former president leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 47 to 45 percent. Trump's lead falls within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.最近《华尔街日报》对 1500 名登记选民进行的民意调查发现，前总统以 47% 对 45%、2 个百分点的优势领先哈里斯。特朗普的领先优势在该民意调查的正负 2.5 个百分点的误差范围内。The poll, conducted between October 19 and 22, found that 3 percent of respondents are undecided, and 2 percent still support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent candidate who dropped out of the race in August. The poll also shows a decline in favorability for Harris, while Trump's favorability has increased. 这项在 10 月 19 日至 22 日进行的民意调查发现，3% 的受访者尚未决定，2% 的人仍然支持小罗伯特・F・肯尼迪，这位独立候选人在 8 月份退出了竞选。民意调查还显示哈里斯的支持率下降，而特朗普的支持率上升。Nationwide and aggregate polls gauge voter sentiment, but individual states and their Electoral College votes ultimately decide the presidential election. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes, which doesn't always align with the national popular vote. 全国性和综合民意调查衡量选民情绪，但各个州及其选举人团投票最终决定总统选举结果。要赢得总统职位，候选人必须获得 270 张选举人票，这并不总是与全国普选票一致。On Friday, pollster Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin forecast gives Trump a 53.4 percent chance of winning the presidency, compared to Harris' 46.3 percent. Meanwhile, polling aggregate FiveThirtyEight predicts a similar outcome, with its Saturday forecast showing Trump with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, and Harris 47 percent.周五，民意调查专家内特・西尔弗的《西尔弗公报》预测特朗普赢得总统职位的几率为 53.4%，相比之下，哈里斯为 46.3%。与此同时，综合民意调查机构 FiveThirtyEight 预测了类似的结果，其周六的预测显示特朗普赢得选举的几率为 53%，哈里斯为 47%。
